Market Overview:
- Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff.
Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025- Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025- Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80.
Key Market Insights:
- Gold as a Portfolio Hedge:
- Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio.
- Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York.
- Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850.
- Dollar Index Trends:
- Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101.
- Could drive the Rand towards 17.80.
Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions:
- European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns.
- Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions.
- Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs.
Investment Strategies:
- AI Participation Note by Standard Bank:
- Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index.
- Two options:
- 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside.
- Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%.
- Open for investment until March 28, 2025.
Renergen* Helium Production Milestone:
- Finally delivered helium after years of delays.
- Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain.
- Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending.
- Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays.
Macroeconomic Outlook:
- Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast:
- Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%.
- Economic slowdown concerns intensifying.
Upcoming Rate Decisions:
- US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates.
- SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut.
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements
05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics
12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI
17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges
20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook
