🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660
📅 10 December 2025
🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
Last podcast of 2025! 🎉
A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏
A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈
Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞
📌 Highlights included:
🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)
🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch
💰 Gold & commodities outlook
🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks
🚀 IPO environment
🧭 Positioning for 2026
Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.
Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):
🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯
🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%
🥉 Northam — +214%
🏅 Gold Fields — +195%
Implats — +153%
Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range
Harmony — +119%
📌 Why the boom?
Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕
Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock
Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations
💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.
🎓 Stadio — +89%
🧑🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals
📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%
+87% 🚀
Bull markets = busy brokers
Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact
📱 MTN — +76%
🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)
🔌 IOCA — +65%
☎️ Telkom — +60%
🟥 Vodacom — +38%
📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.
🟪 Sygnia — +72%
💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)
🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)
🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%
🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)
🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.
🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%
💼 Capitec — +29%
🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec
🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)
🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)
🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)
🥩 Spur — +15%
🍗 Famous Brands — –16%
🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)
🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)
👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)
👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery
🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%
👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%
📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)
🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)
💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)
🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)
📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling
🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)
👖 Mr Price* — –26%
🍔 Famous Brands — –16%
🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling
Early signs of improvement appearing
Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets
REITs & banks starting from low valuations
Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside
A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard
External shocks more dangerous than local issues
Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA
Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering
Nvidia chart still healthy
Gold still bullish
Oil looks very weak
Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:
✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."
❄️ Be safe this festive season
🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)
🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.
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