🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk
- Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May.
- GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners.
- Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70.
💥 Global Markets in Turmoil
- S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%.
- Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950.
- But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips.
S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025
🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption
- 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years.
- Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est).
- Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course.
- Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders.
🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk
- Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China).
- Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession.
- Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out.
🏦 US Treasuries Drama
- Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows.
- Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt?
💡 What To Do As An Investor
- Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks.
- Opportunities:
- SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds
- Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe
- Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
Chapters
00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications
02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions
05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts
09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times
12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks
14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts
