UK labour market data is starting to look softer, and that matters for anyone dealing with arrears, cashflow pressure, or debt recovery.
New figures show UK unemployment rising to 5.1% (Aug–Oct 2025), the highest level since early 2021. At the same time, wage growth is cooling: regular pay (excluding bonuses) slowed to 4.6%, while total pay (including bonuses) eased to 4.7%. PAYE real-time estimates also point to another decline in payrolled employment, with a provisional fall of 38,000 in November 2025. There’s another warning light too: around 29,733 people were reported as “at risk of redundancy” in November via HR1 notifications.
So what does this mean in the real world of credit control and collections?
- Higher risk of missed payments from income disruption Rising unemployment is less about “less money” and more about instability. When households face job loss, reduced hours, or gaps between roles, even short interruptions can trigger missed repayments. The first places this tends to show up are high-frequency commitments like utilities, telecoms, subscriptions, BNPL, car finance, and unsecured credit.
- Slower wage growth reduces people’s ability to catch up When pay rises cool, customers have less breathing room to recover from past arrears. That usually increases requests for payment plans, shorter-term hardship support, and partial payments. It also raises the chance that arrangements fail if they’re set too aggressively.
- Pressure points by sector and age group Commentary around today’s update highlights that younger workers are being hit hard, and job losses have been notable in sectors like retail and hospitality. Those groups often have thinner savings buffers and faster arrears roll rates, which can quickly change the shape of a collections pipeline.
The interest-rate angle A weaker jobs market may increase expectations for Bank of England rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts can help at the margins, but they don’t solve the biggest problem for collections: sudden income shocks from redundancy or reduced hours.
Practical takeaways for businesses
- Tighten early-warning triggers (missed first payment, partial payments, broken promises, repeat contact) and engage earlier.
- Re-check affordability more often and build realistic arrangements that are sustainable, not just “on paper.”
- Treat vulnerability as mainstream: make it easy for customers to disclose job changes and route them to support quickly.
Monitor portfolio concentration in exposed sectors and plan for higher arrears inflow and longer cure times.
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