Wednesday, April 2, 2025:
- Early Morning: Weather alerts are in effect across the central U.S. as forecasters monitor developing storms. Thunderstorms in the Midwest could remain severe after sunrise, influencing the severe threat for the rest of the day. Lingering storms in parts of Kansas and Missouri will likely strengthen as they move east into the Mississippi Valley by the early afternoon.
- Daytime: A significant severe weather threat is anticipated across a large swath from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley southwestward through the mid-South and southern Plains. The SPC upgrades the severe weather threat to a Level 5 out of 5 (High Risk) for over 4.4 million people in major Tennessee cities like Memphis, Clarksville, and Jackson, as well as Evansville, Indiana, and Jonesboro, Arkansas.
- Mid-Afternoon: Additional storms will develop in the Mississippi Valley, with some potentially undergoing "explosive" development.
- Afternoon/Evening: A tornado outbreak is expected, particularly in the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys and the eastern Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, including multiple long-track EF3+ tornadoes, are likely. The greatest risk for tornadoes, some strong and long-lasting, will stretch from Arkansas to Indiana and Ohio, with many potentially occurring after sunset. The strongest storms could also dump baseball-sized hail in parts of the Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts are also a significant threat. Severe thunderstorms could stretch from Louisiana and Arkansas north to Michigan, with a few more storms developing overnight in Texas. Schools in some areas dismiss students early and cancel after-school activities.
- Late Week (Starting Wednesday): The threat of significant, life-threatening flash flooding begins to grow in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys due to repeated rounds of heavy rain (training thunderstorms) moving over the same areas. Rainfall totals could exceed 5-8 inches in some spots within 24 hours, particularly from Arkansas into western Kentucky, on top of previous rainfall.
Thursday, April 3, 2025:
- Ongoing: The cold front will slow and stall from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys into the southern Plains. Even as the main storm system moves into Canada, daytime heating and high humidity will fuel another round of severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible.
- Flooding Intensifies: The expected prolonged heavy rain continues, with a Level 4 (highest threat level) flash flood risk for parts of western Tennessee and Kentucky. A Level 3 risk zone shifts slightly to the west. Rainfall totals could approach a foot in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys through Sunday. The ground becomes increasingly saturated, increasing the risk of dangerous flash flooding. Areas repeatedly under the heaviest storms could see 2 to 6 inches of rain each day, especially from Arkansas to Indiana.
Friday, April 4, 2025:
- Ongoing: The flash flood threat remains significant, with a Level 3 risk zone shifting east again. The potential for heavy rain and severe storms continues in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
