There was a fighter jet flying overhead, so pardon the sound when you hear it.
In futures thinking, I look at politics at two levels: the global geopolitics, and also domestic politics. This one focuses on global geopolitics.
I go through the basics - how countries seek security, and try to find offshore balancers as a way to bargain with other powers.
How China's Belt and Road Initiative - viewed simplistically, is a way to get round being surrounded by pro-American neighbours. Central Asia-Middle East route as a way to get past the US Navy dominated Indian Ocean and Malacca Straits.
How countries in Southeast Asia find a balance between US and China.
How EU is a global player though less so on security matters.
How middle powers such as Japan, India, Russia, the UK also play a role.
The domestic angle is also important - parties can have different foreign policy interests sometimes. (Actually in authoritarian governments too, depending on who specifically is in power and what their interests might be.)
Companies also have to play these rules - such as placating to political demands, or having to abide by multiple standards in data and technology and industry.
Cyberweapons are changing the strategic balance and still an open question how they might play in warfare.
And one last bit on "overstretch" - when powers have commitments beyond what their country can sustain.
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Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com
Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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