• This is the pre-eminent food retailer in South Africa, with the best margins and the most effective management, but its sheer size limits the potential for above industry growth (even market share gains will become limited) and its valuation is full.
• Key points in the investment thesis are:
a. Group revenue growth of 9.5%, however, this was mainly driven by acquisitions as like-for-like revenue growth was 6.3%. Internal selling price inflation of 1.9% implies an increase in like-for-like volume growth.
b. The impact of loadshedding is improving as the company adapts, as well as a reduction in loadshedding hours. FY24 had approximately R1bn in loadshedding costs and this is expected to decrease substantially in FY25 if the utility continues its current path.
c. Supermarkets RSA opened a net 248 stores over the past 12 months to a total of 2 485 stores.
d. Shoprite’s internal price inflation was 1.9% for H1 FY25 compared to H1 FY24 7.7%. Shoprite still maintains strong margins and creates space for volume growth on top of expanding their store footprint.
Our research supports a hold recommendation. Click here to find out more.
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