The recent transaction and events from Sibanye Stillwater:
- The long-term platinum price is expected to range between $900 and $1 100 due to an increasing demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs) making up a larger percentage of global car sales.
- Lower prices Platinum Group Metals will reduce supply, supporting prices.
- The ZAR platinum price has shown consistent growth over the long term, indicating a favourable price trend that is likely to support local PGM producers.
- The intrinsic value is R23.23 with a 36% upside but Sibanye remains a HOLD because of the following risks and recent events:
A probability of 35% that the platinum price will decline to unsustainable operating levels, resulting from:
- A strong uptick in EV demand resulting in an increased share of total sales.
- The Russia-Ukraine war ending, leading to reduced sanctions on Russia, and increased Russian PGMs reaching the open market.
- Tariff war on car imports and exports.
- Higher than anticipated inflation leading to higher interest rates.
- Reduced jewellery demand with global growth under pressure with more cost-effective alternatives.
