Today’s Guest: Xander Snyder, Senior Commercial Real Estate Economist at First American. Xander blends a rare mix of family-office investing experience and data-driven economic analysis, helping institutional investors, developers, and lenders make sense of real-world market trends. With 15+ years in the business, he’s part economist, part operator, translating macro shifts into actionable market intelligence.
Why this matters now: Industrial has been the darling of commercial real estate for five straight years, but the cycle is maturing. After peaking at nearly 800 million SF under construction in 2022, the U.S. is now in a rebalancing phase: large-box supply is heavy, tenants are consolidating, and rent growth is slowing at the top end. Meanwhile, small-bay remains one of the most resilient slices of the market.
In this episode, Xander breaks down how industrial demand, labor, power, and capital are reshaping the Midwest and what the data says about where the next opportunities will emerge.
What You’ll Learn
- Who Xander Is: From a multi-generation LA family office to First American’s national research team, why he sees industrial through both a data and dealmaker’s lens.
- Boom → Rebalance: How low rates and pandemic demand created an unprecedented surge — and why developers are now pulling back on spec.
- Midwest in Focus: Chicago, Indianapolis, Columbus, Detroit, and Minneapolis — which markets have already absorbed supply, and which are still overshooting.
- Small-Bay Advantage: Vacancy near 3%, steady rent growth, and a broader tenant pool make it the most stable industrial segment right now.
- Labor & Incentives: Why the availability of skilled industrial labor predicts rent growth better than any headline metric.
- IOS, Cold Storage, and Data Centers: How new sub-asset classes are evolving and why “power is the new zoning.”
- Investor View: Cap rates are up 150–170 bps from 2022 lows, and for the first time in years, positive leverage is back on the table.
About the Author Gordon Lamphere is a Chicago-area commercial real estate agent and host of The Real Finds Podcast, where operators, economists, and developers share how they’re reshaping the built world. Learn more at www.vvco.com
