Tony Greer is here to share Macro Trading opportunities based on his insights from his dynamic career as a trader, spanning roles in FX and more, to his transition to founding The Morning Navigator newsletter. Tony reflects on the challenges of trading during the dot-com bubble, emphasizing the lessons learned from navigating volatile bear markets and adapting to shifts in trading technology. Tony explains how he thrives in today’s fast-paced trading environment, benefiting from volatility to capitalize on market moves.
Today we discuss...
- Tony Greer divided his career into two halves: trading FX and commodities at Goldman Sachs, then moving into equity sales while consistently writing about markets.
- His independent trading firm during the 2000 tech bubble was an 18-month break-even experience, offering valuable lessons in market volatility and sentiment.
- Tony’s enduring passion is his market commentary, culminating in his newsletter The Morning Navigator, now in its ninth year.
- Tony attributes his trading success to learning from both bull and bear markets, emphasizing that bear markets require a different, more challenging skillset.
- Tony highlights the evolution of trading, from transparent electronic montages in the early 2000s to today’s opaque markets dominated by dark pools and hidden orders.
- His approach relies heavily on technical analysis, using risk-reward setups and trailing stop-loss strategies to navigate volatile markets.
- Tony’s macro calls are driven by observing market sentiment and trends.
- With the rise of ETFs, options, and daily expirations, Tony notes that markets have become more dynamic and unpredictable, fueling opportunities for active traders.
- Markets often telegraph political outcomes, as seen when Trump’s polling surge triggered a market breakout.
- Post-election market moves often reflect emotional reactions and capital deployment in favored sectors.
- Bank stocks and financials surged on election news, signaling bullish sentiment with substantial sector-wide moves.
- A steepening yield curve is a sign of economic health, often correlated with improving data and rising interest rates.
- The S&P’s consistent earnings growth supports its role as a robust inflation hedge and investment choice.
- Trading strategies vary across time horizons, with different accounts dedicated to day trading, mid-term investments, and long-term positions.
- Success in trading requires passion, discipline, and finding a personal methodology that works for the individual.
- Markets thrive on diversity in strategies—there’s no single “right way” to trade or invest.
Today's Panelists:
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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/macro-trading-tony-greer-664