Dan Rasmussen returns to talk about how to invest during this global paradigm shift. Rasmussen shares how the post-2008 investment environment has shifted, with international markets now outperforming, volatility spiking, and the dollar weakening. He critiques the AI investment narrative, challenges in AI profitability, the misalignment between AI hype and real-world economic value, and the implications of rising geopolitical and market uncertainty.
We discuss...
- Dan Rasmussen runs the hedge fund Verdad, focusing on microcap value, credit, and market-neutral strategies.
- His new book, The Humble Investor, compiles insights from a decade of writing research notes.
- How the post-2008 market was defined by low volatility, strong U.S. equity performance, and growth stock dominance.
- In 2025, international markets have started outperforming U.S. equities, signaling a potential regime shift.
- As AI skepticism grows, tech giants have seen declining returns due to increased capital intensity.
- The profitability of AI investments remains unclear, with few killer applications and unsustainable infrastructure costs.
- Chipmakers like Nvidia require enormous customer spending just to justify current valuations.
- The long-term viability of AI, citing high operational costs and uncertain end-user benefits.
- Rising market volatility, potentially driven by politics and the dollar, is pushing investors toward safer, lower-volatility assets.
- Despite years of underperformance, international investing may be entering a comeback phase.
- Google is testing a shift from a pay-per-click to a pay-per-lead ad model in select zip codes.
- ChatGPT is becoming a preferred tool for research due to speed, accuracy, and reduced noise compared to Google.
- The uncertainty around AI profitability makes current tech valuations speculative and potentially risky.
- Potential large-scale layoffs in government and academia could ripple through the broader economy.
- Shifting public-sector workers to private-sector roles is uncertain and may not offset job losses.
- Despite Trump’s influence, AI is seen as a more dominant force for markets than political shifts.
- Japan is highlighted as a promising international market due to undervalued stocks with fortress balance sheets.
- Gold has become a favored allocation, with some portfolios holding as much as 35% due to recent strong performance.
Today's Panelists:
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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-paradigm-shift-dan-rasmussen-704