A CAT Manager is making preparations for her CAT team in advance of Hurricane Francine, which approached the Louisiana coast in the second week of September, 2024. She reads something about spaghetti models, and something about Fast Track cyclones?
Notable Timestamps
[ 00:36 ] - The building owner submits the claim to their property insurer, looking for coverage for a new bollard. They have a standard CP 00 10 10 12, which does not include coverage for fences if the cause of loss was an accidental vehicle crash.
[ 01:21 ] - The PLRB team discuss pasta recipes.
[ 02:47 ] - Hurricane Francine caused a great deal of damage to homeowners and businessowners by the Louisiana coast.
[ 04:35 ] - Andrew shares some screenshots, available on the YouTube version of this podcast.
[ 05:02 ] - An error cone is shown, demonstrating the suspected path of the hurricane.
[ 05:28 ] - Spaghetti models show the various paths Francine might have taken.
[ 05:46 ] - Peak storm surge forecasts color code area by feet of storm surge.
[ 06:44 ] - The "Best Track" includes line, point data, and cumulative wind history.
[ 07:20 ] - Spaghetti models are a forecasting tool that provides multiple expectant paths. Tracks closer together indicate certainty. These are available on PLRB.org or via API.
[ 08:33 ] - Andrew demonstrates how spaghetti models can change over time. Error cones may be superimposed on the spaghetti models.
[ 10:17 ] - Storm surge is the rise in seawater caused solely by the storm's winds pushing the water onto shore. Soup gets involved now.
[ 11:15 ] - Best Track is a representation of the tropical cyclone's direction and intensity. The Best Track wind swath shows how the storm changed.
[ 12:10 ] - Catastrophe Managers can use these forecasting tools in resource allocation. Best Track data can assist in estimating claim ratios. Claims Adjusters can use Best Track data to assist in claims decisions. Underwriters can use this historical data in risk assessment.
[ 13:19 ] - Andrew provides a recap of the scenario and the points above.
Your PLRB Resources
Tropical Storm Francine: https://www.plrb.org/weather-cat/2024-francine/
Spaghetti Models: https://www.plrb.org/documents/view-tropical-cyclone-track-spaghetti-models/
Best Track Data: https://www.plrb.org/documents/view-national-hurricane-center-tropical-cyclone-best-track-maps/
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