LessWrong posts by zvi

“Crime and Punishment #1” by Zvi

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Description

It's been a long time coming that I spin off Crime into its own roundup series.

This is only about Ordinary Decent Crime. High crimes are not covered here.

Table of Contents

  1. Perception Versus Reality.
  2. The Case Violent Crime is Up Actually.
  3. Threats of Punishment.
  4. Property Crime Enforcement is Broken.
  5. The Problem of Disorder.
  6. Extreme Speeding as Disorder.
  7. Enforcement and the Lack Thereof.
  8. Talking Under The Streetlamp.
  9. The Fall of Extralegal and Illegible Enforcement.
  10. In America You Can Usually Just Keep Their Money.
  11. Police.
  12. Probation.
  13. Genetic Databases.
  14. Marijuana.
  15. The Economics of Fentanyl.
  16. Jails.
  17. Criminals.
  18. Causes of Crime.
  19. Causes of Violence.
  20. Homelessness.
  21. Yay Trivial Inconveniences.

  22. San Francisco.
  23. Closing Down San Francisco.
  24. A San Francisco Dispute.
  25. Cleaning Up San Francisco.
  26. Portland.
  27. Those Who Do Not Help Themselves.
  28. Solving for the Equilibrium (1).
  29. Solving for the Equilibrium (2).
  30. Lead.
  31. Law & Order.
  32. Look Out.

Perception Versus Reality

A lot of the impact of crime is based on the perception of crime.

The [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Perception Versus Reality

(05:00) The Case Violent Crime is Up Actually

(06:10) Threats of Punishment

(07:03) Property Crime Enforcement is Broken

(12:13) The Problem of Disorder

(14:39) Extreme Speeding as Disorder

(15:57) Enforcement and the Lack Thereof

(20:24) Talking Under The Streetlamp

(23:54) The Fall of Extralegal and Illegible Enforcement

(25:18) In America You Can Usually Just Keep Their Money

(27:29) Police

(37:31) Probation

(40:55) Genetic Databases

(43:04) Marijuana

(48:28) The Economics of Fentanyl

(50:59) Jails

(55:03) Criminals

(55:39) Causes of Crime

(56:16) Causes of Violence

(57:35) Homelessness

(58:27) Yay Trivial Inconveniences

(59:08) San Francisco

(01:04:07) Closing Down San Francisco

(01:05:30) A San Francisco Dispute

(01:09:13) Cleaning Up San Francisco

(01:13:05) Portland

(01:13:15) Those Who Do Not Help Themselves

(01:15:15) Solving for the Equilibrium (1)

(01:20:15) Solving for the Equilibrium (2)

(01:20:43) Lead

(01:22:18) Law & Order

(01:22:58) Look Out

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First published:

November 3rd, 2025


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tt9JKubsa8jsCsfD5/crime-and-punishment-1-1

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Graph showing mean residual probability of conviction one year before and after reform.
Bar chart titled
Four-panel collage showing different sections of a grocery store interior.
Bar graph showing
Anti-shoplifting warning sign stating five times penalty or police report.
Table showing crime statistics comparing 2020 and 2025 with percentage changes.
Line graph titled
Bar graph titled
Warning sign stating items marked at $951, shoplifters prosecuted for grand theft.
Two urban street scenes showing multi-story buildings and parked cars.
Urban sidewalk with people, shops, parked scooters, and blue trash bins.
News article screenshot. The headline reads:
Closed Tree House Chelsea cannabis dispensary with illicit cannabis seized notices posted.
Anthony Higney tweets:

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