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Here's the transcript of the podcast for those who want to come back years later and see how far or close I came to the mark.
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One of the Ridley Report's viewers has my viewers whose name I've managed to lose... writes this: Quote...I'd like to see more vids centered on the impending collapse of the dollar and what kind of chaos will ensue. Unquote.
Well how about I do one better. how about I stick my neck out a little bit and make some concrete predictions. A lot of these will be wrong and I'm really just spewing them off memory. But if one in five hits the mark, that's probably an indicator I'm making better predictions than the average person.
Since you mentioned gold...semi forgotten viewer... here are my educated gold guesses. Gold hits between 4,000 and 6,000 dollars an ounce in the second half of 2012. And that is the time when it peaks. Silver hits $160-250 bucks per ounce in the same period.
Unable to predict a numeric "dollar peak" for either metal because of uncertainty regarding hyperinflation. If hyperinflation occurs, metal values would tend to become near-infinite and also meaningless. So I'll try to define some predictions in non-dollar terms. I'd guess gold's peak during this crisis, will be roughly this: one ounce of gold equals three-quarters of a Dow unit. For example, say it's December 2012 and the Dow is at 6,000...gold is at 4,500. That would be an indicator gold has peaked when measured in Dow units.
My Methodology here is that gold peaked at half a Dow unit during the Great Depression and at one Dow unit during the late 70s inflation. I'm averaging these two precedents together to come up with the three quarters number. In 2006 Peter Schiff predicted that this time the gold peak will be a full unit of the Dow. So I'm being more conservative then him. I'm also going to project, in swiss franc terms, gold peaking at roughly $3,500 Swiss Francs per ounce, around the second half of 2012. As of this writing the Franc is worth roughly the same as a U.S. dollar...and since I do not believe it will hyperinflate that means we can at least use it as a crude measuring stick.
I'm gonna project a 30 percent chance Dollar more or less dies and is replaced by some sort of "super dollar" or regional currency by 2014. 60 percent chance at least one of those happens.
30 percent chance Food Rioting or political rioting in 3 or more major cities by the end of 2012 - and I would define rioting as more than a billion dollars damage and over 50 deaths. I'm against this outcome of course, so I'll be glad to be wrong. 50 percent chance of the same or worse by 2013. No major food riots or political violence until at least 5 percent of the population is physically hungry.
30 percent at least one state officially attempts secession or disassociation by 2014. If that happens... 10 percent chance the feds use force like in the civil war...60 percent chance they use some sort of blockade or travel restrictions.
15 percent chance there will be a general breakup of the united states by 2013, 30 percent by 2015. 60 percent chance Ron Paul will run in 2012. 60 percent chance Gary Johnson will run. Likely that one will drop out early and back the other. 60 percent chance Johnson proves relatively ineffective for lack of star power and quoteability.
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30 percent chance some sort of natural disaster pushes the Feds over the cliff similar to Somosa's earthquake in Nicaragua. 60 percent chance foreign Powers do it by bailing on the dollar.