Two primaries, two big polling misses. Eric Wilson of the Center for Campaign Innovation and the Campaign Trend Podcast returns to explain what broke in Wisconsin and Michigan, what margin of error really measures, whether AI "synthetic polls" deserve a line in your research budget, and how PAC directors should allocate resources when the numbers can't be trusted. Plus: the four types of voters — mobilizers, connectors, spectators, outsiders — and why the loudest 9% is distorting what campaigns think they know.
