CPI, Housing & Rates: Cutting Through the Noise in an Election Year
Live from Park City, and later back at the desk in Corona, California, KP breaks down CPI Inflation Day and what the latest data actually says about housing, inflation, rates, and the broader economy. With housing making up over 40% of CPI and showing flat month-over-month growth, this episode explains why inflation continues to cool, why rates are sitting near three-year lows, and how the Fed is navigating distorted data in an election year.
KP cuts through political and media spin to focus on the facts: CPI vs. PCE, wage growth vs. inflation, a soft but stable labor market, improving mortgage spreads, and why bond markets remain calm despite geopolitical headlines. The conversation also dives into housing policy “trial balloons,” tariffs, liquidity, and what really matters for affordability, mortgage rates, and market confidence heading into the rest of the year.
It’s a story of balance and patience: cooling inflation vs. lingering distortions, political noise vs. bond market signals, and short-term uncertainty vs. longer-term stability in housing and rates.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 – CPI Inflation Day: why housing drives the data
01:20 – Flat housing inflation & what it means for headline vs. core CPI
02:40 – Media spin vs. facts: how to read inflation data objectively
04:00 – Housing policy talk: MBS, liquidity & election-year signals
05:40 – Labor market check-in: soft, stable, no-hire/no-fire economy
07:00 – Good inflation vs. bad inflation: wages, growth & PCE
08:30 – Tariffs, geopolitics & why markets stayed calm
10:00 – Rates at three-year lows: has housing turned the corner?
12:00 – Mortgage spreads, bond yields & why volatility matters
14:00 – Jay Powell, politics & why the Fed is waiting on cleaner data
16:30 – What all this means for affordability, housing & 2026
Stay focused. Ignore the noise. Follow the data.
#CPI #Inflation #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Economy #HousingPolicy #FinancePodcast
