Labor, Inflation & Rates: Reading the Signals Into 2026
Live from Corona, California, KB breaks down a critical end-of-year data stretch and what it really means for the economy, mortgage rates, and the markets heading into 2026. With jobless claims rising, labor quietly softening, and inflation sending mixed signals, this episode cuts through the noise to explain how the Fed is weighing its true “tri-mandate” and why markets are stuck in a tug-of-war.
KB dives into why headline jobs numbers may be overstated, how bond markets are interpreting upcoming labor and CPI reports, and why refinancing activity has been stronger than most people realize. From housing trends and seasonal hiring to global central bank moves, quad witching, and the ever-important 10-year Treasury, this episode connects the dots between labor, inflation, and the flow of money.
It’s a moment of balance and tension: softening jobs vs. resilient spending, falling inflation vs. skeptical markets, and short-term volatility vs. longer-term opportunity.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 – Live from Corona: end-of-year markets & why this data week matters
01:18 – Jobless claims as a leading indicator & what’s really happening in labor
03:32 – The Fed’s “tri-mandate” and why labor is now the focus
05:09 – Why refinancing quietly surged despite negative headlines
07:16 – Seasonal hiring, jobs reports & why Q4 often runs hot
08:34 – The 10-year Treasury, mortgage spreads & the “Elon Line”
10:00 – CPI, shelter inflation & how one report can move rates
11:40 – Overstated jobs, QCEW revisions & Powell’s 60k comment
13:00 – Stock market outlook: Santa Claus rally vs. Q1 volatility
14:40 – Global risks: central banks, liquidity & market pinch points
16:00 – Looking ahead to 2026: labor, rates & where opportunity may emerge
Stay informed. Stay disciplined. Follow the data.
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