Description

Melbourne's property market isn't one market. It's five completely different markets operating in isolation. While sub-$1 million properties in Frankston surge 20% and clearance rates hold steady, the $2 million-plus market is brutally split between renovated properties selling $300K-400K over range and unrenovated homes passing in everywhere.

In this episode of How's the Market, Tristan Larkin and James Rankin break down exactly how each price point is performing right now and why the answer to "how's the market?" depends entirely on where you're buying. With auction clearance rates at 51.9% overall but 56.16% above $1.5 million, they reveal the massive disparities hidden behind the headline numbers.

Tristan and James dive deep into the data across sub-$1M, $1-1.5M, $1.5-2M, $2-3M, $3-5M, and $5M+ segments, sharing insights from Frankston's 20% growth to Prahran's 13.5% surge to the brutal reality facing unrenovated properties in the upper markets. They explore why construction costs rising 40% since COVID have fundamentally changed buyer behavior and why vendors who've lived in their homes for 10-15 years simply don't believe that renovations now cost $600,000-800,000, not $100,000.

What You'll Learn:

• Why Melbourne has five completely different property markets operating in isolation at different speeds
• Which suburbs and price points saw the strongest growth (Bendigo 22%, Frankston 20%, Ballarat 11.8%, Geelong 14.5%)
• Why unit data is unreliable and how to dig deeper into specific configurations like South Yarra's 9.5% two-bedroom apartment growth
• How the $1-1.5M range performed (Hawthorn 10.4%, Prahran 13.5%) and why properties were getting 30-40 groups through in the first week
• The key theme dominating every market above $1.5M: renovated versus unrenovated properties
• Why construction costs have increased 40% since COVID and why buyers would rather pay more for turnkey than renovate
• Why vendors think renovations cost $100K-150K when the reality is $600K-800K for major work
• The compromise factors killing properties above $2M (no master ensuite, lack of car accommodation, south-facing blocks, proximity to main roads)
• Why agents are spending more time educating vendors about renovation costs than ever before
• How the $5M+ prestige market is flooded with stock and why even luxury buyers prefer finished products over renovations

If you're buying or selling in Melbourne right now, understanding which of the five markets you're actually operating in and how renovation cost realities are reshaping buyer behavior is absolutely critical.

👋 About the Show

How’s The Market is Melbourne’s go-to podcast for buyers who want to make smarter property decisions. Hosted by Tristan Larkin and James Rankin from Tomii Property, we bring you expert tips, market insights, and real stories from the frontlines of real estate, finance, and construction. Auctions, rates, off-markets - we’ve got you covered.

🔗 Resources & Links

Join our mailing list & read the blog → www.tomii.com.au

Subscribe for weekly auction results → www.tomii.com.au/auction-results

Follow Tristan on TikTok & Instagram → @tristanlarkin

Follow James on TikTok & Instagram → @james__rankin