Description

Five townhouses built in a Chinese factory, shipped to Australia, and craned into place just sold out in three weeks in Craigieburn. Build time? Eight weeks from slab to occupancy certificate versus the standard ten to twelve months. Cost? Twenty percent cheaper than volume builders. Welcome to the prefab revolution that could either solve Australia's housing crisis or spark the biggest industry disruption in decades.

In this episode of How's the Market, Tristan Larkin and James Rankin unpack whether Chinese factories are about to replace Aussie builders and what this means for the future of Australian housing. With construction costs up 40% since COVID, over 500 building businesses going bankrupt in Victoria every year, and the National Housing Accord's 1.2 million home target miles off track, the industry is broken and everyone knows it.

Tristan and James explore the Craigieburn experiment, the patriotic tension between keeping jobs local versus solving affordability, and whether these factory-built homes can deliver quality. They discuss why Sweden sits at 80% prefab construction while Australia languishes at 3-5%, and the December market dynamics where clearance rates have dropped six straight weeks to 48.4%.

What You'll Learn:

• How the Craigieburn townhouses ($699K-$749K, 4-bed, 3-bath, 2-car) reduced build times from 10-12 months to 8 weeks with 20% cost savings
• Why 500+ building businesses go bankrupt in Victoria annually and construction costs surged 40% since COVID, creating fear around renovations
• How prefab construction could make smaller development sites profitable and help Australia hit its 1.2 million home target
• The patriotic question: will buyers choose Australian jobs over 20-25% cheaper homes, and can Australian prefab companies compete?
• Why Sweden has 80% prefab construction while Australia sits at 3-5%, and what council approval reforms are needed to catch up
• Whether these homes deliver genuine quality with 8-star energy ratings or become low-quality "investment stock" that sits unsold
• Why December is the best time to buy with agents having free time, vendor urgency before Christmas, and less competition
• How Tristan secured an off-market Ashburton property with one offer accepted same day, and why clearance rates dropped from 61.1% to 48.4%

If you're a first home buyer struggling with affordability or interested in whether factory-built homes are the future of Australian housing, this episode breaks down the economics, quality questions, and industry disruption potential of the prefab revolution.

👋 About the Show

How’s The Market is Melbourne’s go-to podcast for buyers who want to make smarter property decisions. Hosted by Tristan Larkin and James Rankin from Tomii Property, we bring you expert tips, market insights, and real stories from the frontlines of real estate, finance, and construction. Auctions, rates, off-markets - we’ve got you covered.

🔗 Resources & Links

Join our mailing list & read the blog → www.tomii.com.au

Subscribe for weekly auction results → www.tomii.com.au/auction-results

Follow Tristan on TikTok & Instagram → @tristanlarkin

Follow James on TikTok & Instagram → @james__rankin