A single waterway on the other side of the world can quietly rewrite your cost sheet in the automotive aftermarket. Mike Chung sits down with Stephan Keese, Managing Partner for North America at Roland Berger, to unpack what the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption mean beyond headlines and gas station prices. We keep it practical and operational: what gets constrained, how it moves through the supply chain, and when you actually feel it.
We dig into why this chokepoint matters for far more than crude oil, including refining outputs and petrochemical byproducts that underpin plastics like polyethylene and polypropylene, plus other industrial inputs that can affect electronics and materials availability. Stefan compares this moment to COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine energy shock, and recent shipping lane disruptions, then explains why this crisis can stack multiple problems at once: higher energy prices, disrupted ocean routes, rising insurance, reduced air freight capacity, and even looming container shortages as equipment gets stuck out of position.
Timing is the real trap, so we walk through the lag from oil spikes to resin pricing to finished parts and why the full impact can land months later. From there we get into the hard leadership calls: pricing cadence without killing demand, inventory strategy when transit times stretch, and sourcing choices as companies push toward near shoring and regionalization while still relying on Asia for cost and scale. We also touch on what to watch next, including key indicators like commodity prices, miles driven, point-of-sale signals, and competitor pricing moves, plus how uncertainty can change M&A timing across the aftermarket.
This episode was recorded on April 6, 2026.
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