Consumer confidence looks shaky, headlines feel grim, and yet the registers keep ringing. We sit down with Mark Matthews, Chief Economist and Executive Director at the National Retail Federation, to unpack what retail data is really saying about the US consumer and why the old rules around sentiment and spending no longer hold the way they used to.
We get into the massive scale of retail and the practical indicators Mark’s team watches to track consumer health: surveys, retail sales growth, wage and inflation dynamics, and the uncomfortable reality of a low savings rate. Then we shift to retail technology trends that are changing the shopping journey fast, from AI search replacing traditional keyword discovery to store automation like shelf-scanning robots and self-checkout. We also talk about the friction point that can’t be ignored: customer trust, data privacy, and the debate around electronic shelf labels and fears of dynamic pricing.
From there, we dig into the K-shaped economy and why higher-income consumers can drive headline growth even when lower-income households feel squeezed. We explore trading down, where shoppers cut what’s easiest, swap brands, and hunt value, plus the long-term shift toward services spending that reshapes everything from inflation perception to retail strategy. We close with Mark’s perspective on working with “too much data,” how to set hypotheses without forcing a story, and what smarter data choices can do for any business trying to understand demand.
Big thank you to Berryman Products for sponsoring this episode. You can learn more about Berryman and all of their products at BerrymanProducts.com.
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