May the 4th be with you. Short solo show — 38 minutes — with Will from Maine while Evan and Alex are down at Consensus Miami. Heavy on technical analysis, light on news, with one big macro-thread on the Japanese carry trade.
The morning's market mover: Iran claimed a missile strike on US naval ships, US Navy denied, oil spiked ~5%, Bitcoin dipped on the news then rebounded. The US is now escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a third carrier group is in the area — Will's read: it kind of looks like we're trying to antagonize Iran into a strike. Crude oil charts are gearing up for a bullish breakout that would be very, very bad for stocks and crypto.
The bigger structural story: the Japanese carry trade. Bank of Japan rate hikes are pushing Japanese investors back into JGBs and out of US bonds — Japan is historically the largest buyer of US debt. As they sell, US bond rates rise, mortgages and loans get more expensive, inflation ticks higher. The bridge to the crypto world: stablecoin issuers (Tether, Circle, Paxos) are now meaningful US bond buyers and are increasingly the American empire's best friend on the rates side. "Buy more bonds, please."
GameStop news: Cohen put in an offer to buy eBay at $125/share (~45–50% premium) to combine GameStop's 1,600 retail stores with eBay's online marketplace and compete with Amazon — using GameStop locations as authentication hubs for Pokemon cards, retro gaming, and sports memorabilia. Will is rooting for the underdog play.
TA block: Bitcoin near the $82K futures gap and 21-month EMA resistance — Will's hypothesis says hit it, then $69K. Circle stock breaking out ahead of May 11 earnings. Pengu in a bull-flag breakout but double-topping with weakening RSI. DXY still in problem territory. Solana "boring" with no momentum — gets demoted from the A-tier list. Pendle up 80% in 35 days but overbought (sell, don't buy).
Will's coin tier list: Hyperliquid is AAA (revenue buyback + dominates socials). Sky Protocol AA (revenue buyback). Pengu AA (dominates socials). Bitcoin A-tier for trading. Solana removed from A-tier for lack of momentum. Bear market officially ended a few weeks ago — now in consolidation phase for the next ~9 months.
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