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Solo Will episode — 36 minutes, abbreviated show while Evan and Alex are still down at Consensus Miami. Heavy news + TA day, light on sponsor reads. Bear market is over, consolidation phase is live, and the Iran-US negotiation ping-pong is moving oil and Bitcoin in lockstep.
Top story: Iran and the US are reportedly nearing a memorandum of understanding — uranium enrichment moratorium, sanctions lifting, Strait of Hormuz transit, 12-15 year duration, end of war, 30-day negotiation period. Brent crude fell on the news. By end of show, Iran launched a Persian Gulf Strait Authority website to charge ships for safe passage and US oil rebounded 5% from the day's low. Same ping-pong as ever — close to a deal, not close to a deal, missiles fly, peace, repeat. Treat the headline volatility as noise; watch oil's $93.70 break for a real signal.
Bitcoin TA: BTC broke above the 200-day EMA into the new $82.8K–$84K futures gap. Two scenarios — (1) false breakout, drop to $69K and that's the consolidation chop. (2) Holds $82K as support, runs straight into the next leg. Will's bias: still expects a local top here and a correction. Reaffirmed thesis: bear market officially invalidated on April 15 when BTC broke the long downtrend resistance line.
Coinbase laid off 14% — Brian Armstrong's announcement framed it as AI restructuring. The actual blueprint is interesting: junior engineers managing AI pods that replace mid-level functions, 5-level org chart top-to-bottom. If it works, it's the template every tech company copies, which means more layoffs. Plus Michael Saylor floating a hypothetical "sell BTC to pay dividends" — the never-sell-a-Satoshi guy soft-launching a change of tune. And Will calls out the Trump-administration Intel-equity acquisitions as Saylor's potential MSTR backdoor.
TA tour: Solana finally broke above the 55-day EMA at $87.13 after coiling for months — target $108–112. SUI's chart looks just like Solana's, already a step ahead, breakout setup at $1.04. Ethereum's $24.4K is the make-or-break line. Zcash up 71% in a week, sitting at $568 — be careful chasing, look for the next pre-breakout instead. Hyperliquid: Will's not in, waiting for a deeper correction.
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