The snowpack and runoff forecasts for New Mexico’s rivers have begun conjuring up stories about the epically dry 2002. On this week’s episode, Rin Tara and John Fleck talk about the forecast, and the comparison.
On the Rio Grande, the Natural Resources Conservation Service is forecasting just 35 percent of median runoff at Otowi, in north-central New Mexico, with very little water at all making it down past San Marcial downstream from Socorro.
One big difference between 2002 and this year: in 2002, New Mexicans had a lot of water banked in upstream storage to keep the Rio Grande flowing during the dry summer months. “Only thing that allowed us to manage thru the year was releases of water stored in previous years. If this dryness continues, with no storage to speak of, 2026 will be a very difficult year of water management/flows and, unfortunately, possibly fires,” Rolf Schmidt-Petersen, retired New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission chief, wrote in the comments on John’s blog.
John posted a graph on his blog showing the comparison between 2002 storage and today.
Also on the latest episode:
