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🌦️ Weather & Drought Update
Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.
• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme
• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK
US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%
💰 Farm Financial Stress
Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.
• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year
• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12
• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)
Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.
🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales
Flash Sales Thursday:
• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)
• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)
• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY
Brazil & Argentina Shipments:
• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)
• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)
• U.S. → 0mt
China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.
📦 Export Sales Snapshot
Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer
Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer
Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer
🐂 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.
• Trump is pushing lower beef prices
• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish
• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further
