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0:00 Farm Bankruptcies
2:14 Bessent, Trade Talks, Farm Bailout
5:16 "Debasement Trade"
8:39 Brazil Update
9:47 Shutdown, Rollins Interview

🌾 Farm Bankruptcies Rising
Farm bankruptcies have increased this year—93 filings in Q2, up from 88 in Q1 and 47 in Q4 2024. Although still low by historical standards, the trend has been upward since 2022. Corn prices have fallen roughly 50% and soybeans 40% since then, reflecting the broader ag downturn. High input costs, weak markets, and limited exports have all played a role.
While USDA projects higher farm income this year, about three-quarters of the growth is expected to come from government payments.
The first chart below (from Fortune Magazine) shows current bankruptcy trends, and the second chart extends back to 1986. Prior data isn’t available because Chapter 12 didn’t exist until 1986—a response to the 1980s farm crisis, when 200,000–300,000farms went under.

🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the next round of U.S.–China negotiations—set for later this month in South Korea—could produce a breakthrough. President Trump and President Xi are expected to discuss soybean trade and ag exports.
China has shifted more soybean purchases to South America amid the trade war, but Trump is expected to announce a new aid package for farmers this week to offset the impact.

💰 Bitcoin Breaks New Record
Bitcoin hit a record high of $125,689 on Sunday, surpassing its August peak. Equities strength and ETF inflows helped fuel the rally, while the government shutdown sparked safe-haven buying in what investors call a “debasement trade.”
Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin—up in 9 of the past 10 years—and it’s now +31% YTD.

🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian soybean planting is off to a fast start—9.2% complete vs. 2.3% a year ago, per Patria Agronegocios. Consistent rainfall has helped, and farmers are expected to plant around 120 million acres this season.
While Brazil has been slightly drier than normal lately, above-normal rainfall is forecast for the next two weeks—critical for strong emergence.

🏛 Government Shutdown Update
The shutdown continues after the Senate failed to pass either party’s funding bill on Friday. Roughly half of USDA employees are furloughed, disrupting data collection and delaying key reports, including Export Sales and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders.
The October 9 Crop Production and WASDE reports will likely be postponed. US Ag Secretary Rollins will not be available for our scheduled interview until the shutdown ends.

📈 Stay Informed
Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on farm bankruptcies and the U.S.–China trade talks—let’s discuss!