Description

Less than five weeks until the election, Mark Cunningham calls these key governor races. Plus: new drama unfolds in Texas, and a new polls in Georgia and Ohio shed light on shifting dynamics.

In this episode, we cover:

• Can Republicans hold governor's mansions in a blue wave year? - Mark's first gubernatorial predictions: Rick Jackson by 1.8 over Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Vivek Ramaswamy by 1 over Amy Acton in Ohio, Jocelyn Benson by 8 in Michigan, Rob Sand by 3 in Iowa, Tina Kotek by 2.6 over Christine Drazan in Oregon, and David Crowley by 4 over Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin. Mark expects split tickets in Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa.
• Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing Georgia? - A YouGov poll of about 3,300 likely voters shows a 10-point gap between Jon Ossoff's Senate number and Lance Bottoms' governor number. Mark explains why that moves the governor's race from lean D to a toss-up.
• Why is the blue wave stronger in red states? - Olivia brings in Nate Silver's read on where the wave is landing. Mark argues voters are punishing whoever holds power: Trump in red states, Democratic incumbents in places like Oregon and Maine.
• Will Ohio prove the polls wrong? - Mark runs down the latest polls of Ohio, and explains why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't translating in the polls while Sen. Jon Husted's low profile could be hurting him.
• Is Trump dragging down Ken Paxton? - Paxton seemingly blames Trump and the RNC midterm convention for his campaign's troubles. Mark reacts and explains why he doesn't trust the Pulse Decision Science internal poll showing Paxton ahead.
• How unpopular is the Iran war? - The Argument's national poll puts the war in Iran near Vietnam among the least popular U.S. wars of the last century, and finds Trump's approval falling as gas prices rise.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Coming up on today's episode...
00:35 - Headlines: two Michigan polls, a Paxton internal, and Cook shifts in Florida and Texas
01:49 - Mark flips his read of the Georgia governor's race to Rick Jackson
02:21 - Governor calls for Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa
04:16 - Oregon: the governor's race where Republicans could pull an upset
05:35 - Wisconsin after the Marquette poll
06:17 - Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing her lead?
08:46 - Why the blue wave seems strongest in red states
10:20 - Ohio may be the test of whether the polls are wrong
13:17 - Why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't helping him
16:29 - Paxton's leaked audio and new internal polling
20:12 - The Argument: Iran war, gas prices, and Trump's approval

POLLS & LINKS:
📊 Michigan Senate poll (Cygnal/Beacon): https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/
📊 Fox News Michigan Senate poll: https://www.foxnews.com/fox-news-poll-methodology-statement
📊 Pulse Decision Science Texas Senate poll (Paxton internal): https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2105048317780771129?s=20
📊 Co/efficient Maine Senate poll: https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/
📊 YouGov Georgia poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf
📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2105347162850607610?s=20
📊 Big Data Poll Ohio Senate poll: https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/
📊 Marist Poll Ohio: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2104786340403675323?s=20
📰 The Argument polling article on wars and gas prices: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-popular-war-since-vietnam

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

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