Welcome to the 2024-2025 NFL season! In this episode, hosts Eric Glazer, David Eby (the Ambassador), and Greg Roth dive into their top Week 1 NFL betting picks using insights from leading handicappers. Learn how the team’s expert-driven algorithm ranks the picks and discover which games hold the most promise for savvy bettors.
In This Episode:
- Recap of Last Season: The team reflects on their solid performance last year, hitting a 56% ATS (Against the Spread) success rate on DraftKings Pick Five and 61% in their 3-2-1 contest.
- The Picks Breakdown: This week's top-rated games, categorized into Gold, Silver, and Bronze:
- Gold Games:
- Tennessee Titans (+4.5) vs. Chicago Bears: Multiple handicappers, including Steve Physic and Scott Seidenberg, back the Titans.
- New York Jets (+4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers: No sharps favor the 49ers, with top picks for the Jets coming from the likes of Mike Lombardi and R.J. Bell.
- Silver Games:
- Carolina Panthers (+4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints: The Panthers receive strong backing, with notable names from the Action Network supporting the pick.
- Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sharps like Kyle Long and Steve Hasek are backing the Falcons.
- Bronze Games:
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins: Handicappers such as Mike Lombardi are favoring the Jaguars, while the Dolphins have limited support.
- Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos: Despite some dissent, sharps like Marco D'Angelo pick the Seahawks.
Key Insights:
- Betting on rookie quarterbacks comes with caution—historically, they are 5-15-1 ATS in their first 21 games, a stat to consider in the Titans vs. Bears matchup.
- The Jets benefit from the "Super Bowl loser hangover" trend, with the 49ers’ poor Week 1 ATS record adding weight to the pick.
- The Panthers, coming off an improved offseason with a better offensive line and coaching staff, are gaining traction as a smart pick.
Betting Trends:
- Underdogs on Monday Night Football: They are 29-12-1 ATS since 1998, a stat applying to the Jets in Week 1.
- Favorites of 7+ Points in Week 1: Historically, they are 14-27 ATS since 2003, with teams like the Bengals fitting this trend.
Additional Resources:
- Want to join the Sharp Squares community and access detailed notes on all the picks? Join our Discord at SharpSquaresPodcast.com. Get insights from other like-minded bettors and share ideas to make more informed picks. First week is free!
