Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan.
Timestamps
0:00: Chougule introduces episode
0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup
2:25: Intro ends
4:25: Interview begins
4:46: Pillalamarri's background
5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets
6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan
7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict
8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war?
9:34: Pakistan's strategy
11:47: Spike in Polymarket market
12:13: Nuclear weapons
12:57: Terrorist attack in India
18:10: Indian military options
19:50: Indian hardliners
20:51: Pakistan's hand
25:18: China
26:38: Saudi Arabia
27:50: Munir
28:14: Pakistani military
29:06: India's point of view
30:01: Hardline Indian policy
32:50: Timing of an Indian strike
35:21: Market rules on "strike"
36:33: No Indian ground forces
37:06: Indian strike in 2027
Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.
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Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299
The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company.
This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time.
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