one year. how far have we come? how far do we have to go? and will we survive this spring fever moment of increased vaccinations, warmer days and... spring break. get the latest from tom and rp, and keep the conversation going... questions coming.
INTRO
The current state of our economy – where is it heading?
6.5 GDP Growth
The Senate
News from Chicago – Wrigley will open on time with 20% of stadium filled one month from now
Daylights savings – Spring has Sprung
Biden and Blinken
C19 Vaccines – can you transmit it when vaccinated? No. 80% likelihood you will not transmit it when vaccinated.
The Academic Freedom Alliance
YES OR BS
Yes or BS: Economic Recovery will be twice as fast.
Yes, look at other economies that have already recovered
The flow of business is going to pick up, the economy is going to grow
Roaring 20 analogy – how great will the welcome back parties be? The amount of vaccines available, you will have by June of this year could have over 80% of America vaccinated
Stimulus is huge
Savings rates - traditionally its 7% (per household) and right now its 13% (during the pandemic) will this translate into pent up demand? You need the velocity and liquidity for growth.
Day 362 of C19 *Companies shutting down
Yes or BS: There was no mass exodus from California
However, a lot of people can't afford to move
Mass exodus isn't the point, the billionaires who live in CA or a northeast state pay a real increased majority of the tax base
The influx went way down in CA and there is an exodus out of SF, but people are moving away from the city itself but still in CA
Reasons: Economic reality & you have to get through Covid 19
A 'nontroversy' exposed....the media reported all year that there was a mass exodus from California due to COVID restrictions. Turns out that was not the case
Yes of BS: Miami Beach Mayor is a COVID Casssandra
You will have a tiny # of these people (college kids) will be vaccinated; a ton of unvaccinated people there
Outside, high UV, but young and stupid
Will this be a superspreader event? Probably. Will it be a spike like last year, this time? No.
The spring break one could be framed around Miami Beach mayor as a Cassandra. He is sounding the warning, but as mayor he can't stop it from happening
There's also a great animation from last year's spring break
Used cell data to show how the spring breakers spread across the country and basically creates the pandemic— all from one beach!
Yes or BS: This is spring break deja vu
Behaviors are about to change, with a majority of people being vaccinated
Certain behaviors linked to specific outcomes
Is it okay to get back to normal life? Where is the disease going to go? Where are vaccinations going to go?
If we look at the data, dangerous moment is now – May. We are almost there.
Concerned for spring break, but excited for the country come June
Yes or BS: These anti maskers don't love their kids.
Does this get to our concept of illusion of controversy?
Are there a lot of people burning masks? I don't think so.
This will be one of the greatest public health communication errors of history: CDC/White House not mandating that we all wear masks earlier on
Public health is all about communication
