The historical record of democracies in dealing with crises and other threats is good: democracies win wars, avoid famines, recover from economic disasters and adapt to meet new challenges. This should give grounds for confidence in the ability of democracies to meet the challenges of the future, but when does confidence become overconfidence? Can this lead to a kind of complacency or fatalism? And how well equipped are democracies to tell the difference?This lecture explored the intellectual history of these questions over two centuries, from Tocqueville to the present. It examines the instability and reflexivity of democratic confidence. Confidence in democracy can shape democratic performance as much as democratic performance shapes confidence in democracy. Finally, it will look at the possible impact of these puzzles on the challenges democracies face in the present, ranging from market failures to climate change.
