GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting
Cover Art - Best Ever - Not...
New term - QUISHING
I gotchooo and Say less
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INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- Cover Art - Best Ever - Not...
- New term - QUISHING
- I gotchooo and Say less
Markets
- What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting
- MORE ATHs!
- Earnings Season Update
- Homes - Capital Gains?
Cover Art
- Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week?
- At least TWO glaring issues ...
China - another delay/pause?
- President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???)
EU Deal
- Framework of the deal seems done
- 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions)
- Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up
- Some new benefits for US cars into Europe
- - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything?
Earnings this week of note:
- Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025
- Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025
- Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025
- Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025
--- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weighting
Earnings Season Update
- Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%.
- If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%).
- In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%.
Real Estate
- Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024.
- According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers.
- The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900
- Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June
- Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024.
Quishing
- QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.”
- The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.”
- There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure.
Thoughts?
- During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust ...