Bottom Fishing for bargains.
Consolidation, Digestion - awaiting the next catalyst.
Saudi SWF takes a hit.
The Jackson Hole confab is around the corner.
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Warm-Up
- Labubus - Beanie Babies ?
- US Debt - wretched
- Good fishing this weekend
- Chip Trackers
Markets
- Bottom Fishing
- Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst
- Saudi SWF takes a hit
- Validations - to the MOON
- Casual Dining take a hit
Weekend Fishing
- Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna
- 2 bucket list items
The CONFAB
- August 21 to August 23
- Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy
- Powell to speak Friday at 10am
- Historically:
---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982)
--- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2
--- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets
--- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth
More Jackson Hole
- Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career
- Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair
- Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk
US Debt
- The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
- OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit)
- US Debt to GDP = 100%
- Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly)
- 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person
LabooooBooo
- Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults.
- In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze.
- The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get.
- Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72.
Investing - A better Way?
- Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing
- Next drawing - Wednesday night
- The jackpot is a new high for 2025
- he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California.
- The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million
Energy Needed
- Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid.
- The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes.
- TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S.