Bottom line: Who's gonna win this damn election? A question many are asking. To which, like any good poker player would answer: It depends! Well, at least ya gotta listen to find out.
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It's so cool to be joined again by Carl Allen to delve into the intricacies of election predictions and polling analysis. In this conversation, we cover the inefficiencies in polling methodologies used by entities like Trafalgar and Atlas Intel to the impact of undecided and third-party voters on electoral outcomes. Important states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina are analyzed, highlighting early voting trends and their potential implications for candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The role of prediction markets and Democratic strategies in key Senate races and swing states are also scrutinized, offering insights into the dynamics of voter behavior and the critical factors shaping the 2024 general election. Throughout, the significance of accurate, transparent data in informing the public and predicting election results is emphasized. And of course we had to squeeze in a bit of poker talk!
01:13 Discussing Election Predictions
05:24 Diving into Poll Data
06:25 Pennsylvania Poll Analysis
10:40 Understanding Polling Discrepancies
31:17 Forecasting Pennsylvania's Outcome
38:47 Significance of Third Parties in Elections
40:22 Swing States Analysis: North Carolina
41:38 Registered vs. Likely Voter Polls
45:11 Undecided Voters and Polling Errors
49:31 Late Breakers and Election Predictions
01:03:04 Senate Races and Calculated Risks
https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1032483024
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Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.
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