Coaching changes don’t just shift schemes… they shift fantasy ceilings.
In this deep-dive, we analyze 10 years of offensive data to answer the real question:
👉 Is there a correlation between play-calling, offensive quality, and positional fantasy production?
We break down:
📊 10-Year Offensive Quartile Cutoffs (Half-PPR)
Q1 (Elite) ≥ 78.0 FPPG
Q2 (Above Avg) 72.0–77.9
Q3 (Below Avg) 66.0–71.9
Q4 (Poor) < 66.0
🚨 Key Finding: Fantasy production compresses once an offense falls below 72.0 team FPPG.
Position-by-Position Impact
🏈 QB Impact
Q1 vs Q4 = +9.1 FPPG (~84% lift)
Why QB & TE are most sensitive to offense quality
Caleb Williams example (Waldron ➝ Ben Johnson shift)
🏃 RB Impact
Q4 to Q1 = +3.6 FPPG (~36% lift)
TD equity separates RB tiers above 72.0
Saquon Barkley offensive tier swing case study
🎯 WR Impact
Q4 to Q1 = +4.3 FPPG (~47% lift)
Elite offenses sustain multiple WRs
Rams vs Falcons case study
🧱 TE Impact
Q4 to Q1 = +2.5 FPPG (~51% lift)
Below 66.0 FPPG = TD roulette
Why TE is the most scheme-dependent position
2026 Coaching Changes Covered
We profile play-callers and historical usage tendencies for:
Atlanta Falcons (Kevin Stefanski / Tommy Rees)
Miami Dolphins (Jeff Hafley / Bobby Slowik)
Buffalo Bills (Joe Brady ecosystem)
New York Giants (John Harbaugh / Matt Nagy)
Pittsburgh Steelers (Mike McCarthy)
Tennessee Titans (Brian Daboll)
Baltimore Ravens (Declan Doyle tree)
Arizona Cardinals (Mike LaFleur)
Denver Broncos (Davis Webb)
Detroit Lions (Drew Petzing)
Kansas City Chiefs (Eric Bieniemy)
Los Angeles Chargers (Mike McDaniel)
New York Jets (Frank Reich)
Philadelphia Eagles (Sean Mannion)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Zac Robinson)
Washington Commanders (David Blough)
We break down:
✔ QB dropbacks
✔ RB usage + target share
✔ WR1 funnel vs distribution
✔ TE involvement
✔ Team fantasy scoring tier
✔ Positional FPPG vs league average
If you're drafting early best ball, dynasty projecting, or building tier-based rankings… this is the blueprint.
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