Track-by-track today, Churchill Downs saw morning line favorite Project Ace at 3-1 attract significant early play in Race 1 but Valley of Kings was hammered late, suggesting smart money recognized this one’s paired top speed figures and beneficial rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. The biggest specialty card movement came in known winter-classic races like Race 5, with Ashima (Irad Ortiz Jr.) designated as the “best bet”—her current odds dipped below the morning line as she drew decisive multi-race ticket inclusion and top pool percentages. In Race 10, Navajo Warrior’s support outpaced his 7-2 morning line, indicating significant late backing over preferred rivals like Bernin Hot, with many exotics and horizontal wagers showing weighted overlays on the favorite, a signal of large syndicate money inflows according to Churchill’s own tip sheet.
At Aqueduct, Mr. Ed from VSiN and Scott Shapiro identified overlay opportunities in the late Pick 4. In Race 10, fillies like Mis Bruenllas and Just Tell Anne offered value, with tote action converging mostly on Siouxsie and Isadora Duncan, overbet due to name recognition and recency bias, leaving room for improving types drawing lighter support. Earlier, the $350K Jockey Club Oaks revolved around Laurelin under Kendrick Carmouche, whose odds shrank as sharp late money and multi-race wagers chased a positive pace and distance profile, suggesting heavy ticket inclusion despite a tepid morning line. In Race 6, Alpine Giant’s odds dropped sharply as trainer Jeremiah Englehart added blinkers and brought back Ricardo Santana Jr. after a troubled trip, creating notable win pool and place pool imbalances.
At Woodbine’s Kennedy Road Stakes, cold, fast Tapeta and tactical race shape led to underlays on inside-drawn speed horses, as historical trends favor outside late runners on brisk November afternoons. Past performances suggest sprinters coming off layoffs are vulnerable, and betting swung heavily toward those exiting fast-pace races over the surface.
Trainer and jockey changes were crucial several times: Brad Cox moving to Flavien Prat or Irad Ortiz Jr., as seen with Fionn in the Jockey Club Oaks and Concrete Glory at Churchill, corresponded with contracting odds and became multi-race anchor horses. Equipment changes such as blinkers off for Boss Henry at Aqueduct Race 4 with Prat riding drew sharp early action and a morning line gap close.
Money flow indicators highlighted syndicates keying Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences around reliable pace setups, notably favoring pace-pressers at both Churchill and Aqueduct. Large exotic pools at Churchill, combined with multi-race carryovers, enticed outsized action on favorites in Races 5-7, flattening prices by post time.
Overlay opportunities presented best at Churchill with Gilmore (Race 9, Luis Saez), who had a troubled last trip and a solid figure edge, and Three B’s at Aqueduct, rising in class but overlooked based on barn intent and pace shape with Sahin Civaci up. Post position trends at Woodbine again leaned outside, supporting value on late-running wide types against the grain.
In historical context, trainers like Brendan Walsh and Graham Motion repeatedly produced live price horses stepping up in class on this date in past years, and at Aqueduct, closers in turf routes with Carmouche or Prat up consistently outperformed odds, signaling continued value when those profiles align.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
