Del Mar’s Wednesday card saw a notable odds shift in Race 7, where Let’s Roll, trained by Phil D’Amato with jockey Antonio Fresu, shortened from 10-1 morning line to 5-1 at post due to heavy late money and strong multi-race (Pick 5) action. Similarly, at Parx, in Race 8, Lemon Drop Shot moved from 8-1 to 4-1 after sustained kickback in the win pool, likely reflecting barn whispers about an equipment change to blinkers and a positive recent work pattern. Major overlays remain at Saratoga in Race 5, where the Chad Brown-trained Westward Bound has drifted to 9-2 despite a 5-2 morning line, largely due to bettors favoring inner-track bias followers after overnight rain changed surface to good. At Santa Anita, several underlays are present, especially on maiden firster Rolling River, who’s dropped from a 7-2 line to 9-5 based purely on reputed connections (trainer Bob Baffert, jockey Juan Hernandez) and strong show pool inflow without supporting workout data.
Track-by-track movement shows that Saratoga’s main track bias has recently been neutral, but saving ground on the inner turf remained key, so horses like Rail Skimmer (with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding for Linda Rice) are being bet down in those lanes. Del Mar’s main track has played evenly, but rail posts have performed below par, tilting late money to outside-drawn runners in sprints.
Weather and condition changes today saw Parx move its first four races from turf to dirt after persistent overnight showers. This directly benefited main-track only entries, shifting odds on Dreamer’s Song in Race 2, now bet from 6-1 to 3-1 with Mychel Sanchez up. Saratoga’s inner turf, which relished firm ground all week, downgraded to good, adding value to proven off-going runners like Gun It (Tyler Gaffalione, trainer Dallas Stewart).
Notable weight bugs include apprentice rider Jessica Pyfer at Santa Anita, drawing late support with a five-pound break. Class drops—like Stardust Lady in Delaware Park Race 6—are triggering pool surges, as the filly drops from optional claiming to straight $16K company.
Pool sizes on Saratoga late sequence WPS and exotics are up 12 percent from this day in 2024. Pick 5 and Pick 6 pools at Del Mar are trending higher, with several trifecta payouts showing imbalance—often due to big-win bets on chalk resulting in higher prices underneath for logical second- or third-place finishers. Several exotics at Saratoga reflect sharp action on lightly raced, but troubled-trip runners—Westward Bound in exotics, and Rail Skimmer in multi-race wagers, both offering fair value overlays against vulnerable favorites.
Overall, the strongest value today is with horses showing hidden form who have either experienced recent tough trips or are aided by track/surface changes, equipment tweaks, or favorable post draws. Notable patterns include Belmont shippers holding form on the West Coast, and high-percentage trainer changes generating sharp odds cuts late. The week’s trends favor ground-saving tactics on inner turf, market support for experienced local jockeys, especially into class relief spots, and money showing up for trip-compromised runners from last-out speed figures.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
