In this post-election discussion, David McLaughlin, Catherine Smith, and Tim Shifflett revisit the 2012 presidential race, analyzing why President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a growing popular-vote margin of roughly 2–3%, with late-counted ballots unlikely to shift the outcome. They emphasize that Republican optimism was rooted in flawed voter-turnout assumptions; GOP strategists expected an electorate resembling 2004, but 2012 mirrored 2008, favoring Democrats. Catherine notes Romney’s team was so confident that he didn’t prepare a concession speech, leaving the campaign stunned on election night. The trio highlights the Romney campaign’s internal failures—most notably “ORCA,” a voter-contact system that crashed on Election Day, leaving volunteers idle. Tim adds that the Romney team’s polling was badly skewed by undercounting Democrats, contributing to misguided expectations, premature fireworks plans, and even a live “President-elect Romney” transition website. In contrast, Obama’s campaign excelled in organization and technology. Years of sustained field offices, sophisticated data modeling, and relentless voter contact helped turn out key Democratic constituencies. Exit polls showed Obama winning Catholics, Jews, LGBTQ voters, younger voters, unions, urban areas, and even late deciders—groups Republicans expected to perform better with Romney. Voters also continued to blame George W. Bush for the economy, undermining Romney’s core argument. State-by-state results offered surprises: Florida ended up the closest state, not Ohio; North Carolina was tighter than expected; Mississippi outperformed Alabama for Democrats due to demographic differences; and South Carolina showed modest Democratic gains. Georgia remained challenging outside metro Atlanta. Overall, the hosts conclude that superior planning, demographics, and ground organization delivered Obama’s convincing victory.
