Is it gambling? This week on The Wealth Effect, we’re diving into the world of Prediction Markets. From the blockchain-powered "rebel" Polymarket to the regulated "teacher’s pet" Kalshi, we explore why millions of dollars are being moved not on stocks, but on outcomes. Whether it’s inflation numbers, election results, or the next global conflict, these markets are proving that if you want the truth, you have to follow the money. In this episode, we break down:
- The Hayek Connection: Why a mid-20th-century Austrian economist predicted this exact moment in history.
- The 2026 "Guerrilla War": How states like Nevada and Connecticut are fighting the Feds over who gets to regulate your "economic derivatives."
- Polymarket vs. Kalshi: The rivalry tearing the industry apart—and how Donald Trump Jr. and the FBI ended up in the same script.
- Why Polls Fail and Markets Win: The "Skin in the Game" filter that makes markets move faster than the news cycle.
The Rise of AI Trading Agents: How hedge funds are using LLMs to trade on events in 40 milliseconds.
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