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This is your Daily Copper Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Hello everyone, welcome to Daily Copper Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I'm Vanessa, and today is Monday, December first, twenty twenty-five. We're diving into what's happening in the copper market right now, and let me tell you, it's quite the story.
Let's start with where copper is trading today. Copper futures closed at five point two one nine zero per pound, up zero point sixty-five percent. On the London Metal Exchange, we're seeing even more impressive numbers, with benchmark copper trading around eleven thousand two hundred thirty-five dollars per ton. This represents a remarkable year-to-date gain of approximately twenty-eight percent. For context, copper hit a fifty-two week high of five point seven nine five back in July, and we're currently trading about ten percent below that peak.
So what's driving this rally? The primary story is supply constraints. We're looking at a genuinely tight copper market. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, has experienced production declines of about seven percent year over year in October. On top of that, major Chinese copper smelters are planning production cuts of over ten percent for twenty twenty-six due to overcapacity and squeezed profit margins from unfavorable processing fees.
Beyond Chile and China, we've seen mine disruptions in Indonesia and other regions that have contributed to this supply squeeze. The London Metal Exchange saw copper hit record highs last Friday, with premiums reaching levels not seen before. These elevated premiums are reflecting the real shortage concerns in the market.
From a demand perspective, global copper demand is projected to grow two point eight percent in both twenty twenty-five and twenty twenty-six. This growth is driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy installations, power grid investments, and data center expansion. That last one is particularly important given the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom we're witnessing.
On the macroeconomic front, traders are betting heavily on Federal Reserve rate cuts. As of late last week, markets were pricing in an eighty-seven percent probability of a twenty-five basis point cut at the December ninth through tenth meeting. A weaker dollar also supports copper prices since it makes dollar-denominated metals more affordable for international buyers.
Looking ahead, UBS has raised its copper price forecasts significantly. They're now targeting eleven thousand five hundred dollars per ton by March twenty twenty-six, twelve thousand by June, twelve thousand five hundred by September, and thirteen thousand by December twenty twenty-six. UBS has also expanded its market deficit projections to two hundred thirty thousand tons for twenty twenty-five and four hundred seven thousand tons for twenty twenty-six.
For traders watching the technicals, copper is showing bullish momentum. The expected trading range today is between five point zero six and five point three two per pound, with target levels extending to five point five dollars per pound at the Fibonacci extension level.
The broader takeaway here is that copper is caught in a classic supply and demand imbalance. Limited inventory, ongoing mine disruptions, planned production cuts in China, and accelerating demand from electrification and clean energy investments are all converging to support higher prices. However, some traders remain skeptical about whether China will actually follow through on its production cut announcements, given mixed results from past initiatives.
Thank you so much for tuning in to Daily Copper Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe and join us tomorrow for another update on how copper is moving. This is Vanessa Clark, see you next time.
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