Shows
Assumed RationalityMini Episode: The Fallout of the Chornobyl StrikeKim Barker and Brendan Hoffman, “How a Cheap Drone Punctured Chernobyl’s 40,000-Ton Shield,” The New York Times, March 25, 2025, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/world/europe/drone-chernobyl-shield-ukraine-war.html; IAEA, “Frequently Asked Chernobyl Questions,” Text (IAEA, November 7, 2016), https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs; ILLIA NOVIKOV and EFREM LUKATSKY, “A Drone Pierced the Outer Shell of Ukraine’s Chernobyl Nuclear Plant. Radiation Levels Are Normal,” AP News, February 14, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-chernobyl-zelenskyy-71d781dbd66754d0a548edd388f3447a; Nuclear Newswire, “Fires Extinguished at Chernobyl Following Drone Strike,” Nuclear Newswire, March 13, 2025, https://www.ans.org...
2025-04-1505 minAssumed RationalityBlockade Rehearsal? Decoding China's Military MessageIn this episode of Assumed Rationality, Bree Megivern unpacks China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan, analyzing them as both a possible rehearsal for a blockade and a strategic message to Taipei and Washington, DC. The episode touches on the historical relationship between China and Taiwan and the international community’s reactions to the military exercises. Have questions, comments, or episode suggestions? Contact me at https://assumedrationality.com/ Want to learn more? AP, “Taiwan’s President Says the Defense Budget Will Exceed 3% of GDP in Military Overhaul,” Associated Press News, March 20, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/c...
2025-04-0710 minAssumed RationalityMaximum Pressure, Minimum Progress: Iran’s Nuclear GambleWant to request an episode topic? Go to https://assumedrationality.com/ Sources: Al Jazeera Staff, “Iran Responds to Trump Letter on Nuclear Talks, State Media Reports,” Al Jazeera, March 27, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/iran-responds-to-trump-letter-on-restarting-nuclear-talks-state-media; Alex Plitsas, “After Proxies and Nuclear Program Threats, Iran May Turn to Terror Abroad,” Atlantic Council (blog), March 25, 2025, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/increasing-threat-iran-transnational-terrorism/; Doina Chiacu and David Ljunggren, “Trump Threatens Bombing If Iran Does Not Make Nuclear Deal,” Reuters, March 30, 2025, sec. World, https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-there-will-be-bombing-if-iran-does-not-make-nuclear-deal-2025-03-30/; Farnaz Fassihi, “What to Know About...
2025-03-3010 minAssumed RationalityThe Shadow Fleet Fueling Russia's EconomyRequest an episode topic at: https://assumedrationality.com/contact-assumed-rationality/ Sources: Anna Caprile and Gabija Leclerc, “Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’: Bringing the Threat to Light,” Briefing (European Parliament, November 2024 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/766242/EPRS_BRI(2024)766242_EN.pdf; Eitvydas Bajarūnas, “Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic,” CEPA, January 15, 2025, https://cepa.org/article/choking-russias-shadow-fleet-in-the-baltic/; Elisabeth Braw, “The Threats Posed by the Global Shadow Fleet—and How to Stop It,” Atlantic Council (blog), December 6, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-threats-posed-by-the-global-shadow-fleet-and-how-to-stop-it/;European Commission, “G7 Agrees Oil Price Cap: Reducing Russia’s R...
2025-03-2312 minAssumed RationalitySound Cannons in Serbia: How to Protest SafelyWant to learn more: AP, “Serbian Officials Deny Illegal Sonic Weapon Attack on Peaceful Protesters,” AP News, March 16, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/serbia-protest-sonic-weapon-8502587e5849997175a5ea02f98d2e19; Big Brother Watch Team, “A Guide to Facial Recognition at Protests — Big Brother Watch,” A guide to facial recognition at protests — Big Brother Watch, August 2, 2023, https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/blog/a-guide-to-facial-recognition-at-protests-2/; Daphne Carr, “Understanding the LRAD, the ‘Sound Cannon’ Police Are Using at Protests, and How to Protect Yourself From It,” Pitchfork, June 9, 2020, https://pitchfork.com/thepitch/understanding-the-lrad-the-sound-cannon-police-are-using-at-protests-and-how-to-protect-yourself-from-it/; Darren Loucaides, “How Governments Use Facial Recognition for...
2025-03-1614 minAssumed RationalityThe Steel Porcupine: Europe's Strategy to Fortify Ukraine Against AggressionWant to request an episode topic? Go to https://assumedrationality.com/ Sources: Al Jazeera, “EU Leaders Back New Defence Spending Plans,” Al Jazeera, March 6, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/6/eu-leaders-hold-emergency-summit-to-bolster-support-for-ukraine; Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood, “Doorstep by President von Der Leyen at the Leaders’ Meeting on Ukraine in London - European Commission,” European Commission, March 3, 2025, https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/doorstep-president-von-der-leyen-leaders-meeting-ukraine-london-2025-03-03_en; Trump Lashes Out At Ukraine’s Zelensky: “You Don’t Have The Cards Right Now With Us!,” Youtube Shorts, 2025, https://youtube.com/shorts/AWcJAHHASWA?s...
2025-03-0914 minAssumed RationalityWelcome to Assumed RationalityAssumed Rationality is a weekly podcast hosted by Bree Megivern.
2025-03-0200 minAssumed RationalityIcebreakers and ICBMs: Why the Arctic Matters More Than EverWant to learn more? Sources: Atomic Heritage Foundation, “Camp Century - Nuclear Museum,” https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/, July 19, 2018, https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/history/camp-century/;Ernie Regehr, “NORAD Renewal and a Team Canada Approach to Security,” The Simons Foundation Canada, February 11, 2025, https://www.thesimonsfoundation.ca/sites/default/files/NORAD%20Renewal%20and%20a%20Team%20Canada%20approach%20to%20security%20-%20Arctic%20Security%20Briefing%20Paper%2C%20February%2011%202025_0.pdf; Hadi Pradnyana, “Arctic Showdown: Global Power Struggles & ASEAN’s Stake in the Ice,” Modern Diplomacy, February 28, 2025, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/02/28/arctic-showdown-global-power-struggles-aseans-stake-in-the-ice/; Joshua LeRoi and Olga Houtsma, “MINUTEM...
2025-03-0214 minAssumed RationalityTension in the Tasman Sea: Unpacking China's Naval Power PlaySources: Craig Nigrelli, William Jackson, and Kaleb Gillespie, “3 Chinese Warships Conduct Military Drills off Australia, Forcing Flight Diversions,” Straight Arrow News, February 21, 2025,https://san.com/cc/3-chinese-warships-conduct-military-drills-off-australia-forcing-flight-diversions/; Maj Timothy A Ornelas, “China’s Active Defense Military Strategy,” Marine Corps Gazette, 2021, 6; Midhar Fatimah, “China Accuses Australia of ‘hyping’ Live-Fire Navy Drills – DW – 02/23/2025,” dw.com, February 22, 2025,https://www.dw.com/en/china-accuses-australia-of-hyping-live-fire-navy-drills/a-71718592; Australian Associated Press, “China Conducts Second Live-Fire Drill near New Zealand,” The Guardian, February 22, 2025, sec. Australia news,https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/22/china-conducts-second-live-fire-drill-near-new-zealand; Reuters, “Philippines Accuses China’s Navy of ‘reckless’ Flight Manoeuvres,” Reuters, February 18, 2025, sec. Asia...
2025-02-2409 minAssumed RationalityThe Future of Gaza: Scrutinizing the Gaza 'Riviera' ProposalSources: Andrew Roth, “Trump Says Palestinians Will Have No Right of Return to Gaza under His Plan,” The Guardian, February 10, 2025, sec. US news, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/10/trump-buy-gaza-plan; BBC News, “US Gaza Latest: Trump Will ‘look at All Options’ for Gaza Takeover as UN Warns against ‘Ethnic Cleansing,’” BBC News, accessed February 11, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clyn05y9x2xt; Bernd Debusmann Jr, “Trump Insists US Will Take Gaza as He Meets Jordan’s King,” BBC News, February 11, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly9m7kv7lro; HRW, “Trump Indicates Intent to Escalate Ethnic Cleansing...
2025-02-1613 minAssumed RationalityHow the War in Ukraine Helps North Korea's Defense IndustryThank you for your patience as I try to improve my audio!Sources: Andrew Yeo, “Expect to See More North Korean Weapons Reach Nonstate Armed Actors in 2024,” Brookings, accessed February 6, 2025, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/expect-to-see-more-north-korean-weapons-reach-nonstate-armed-actors-in-2024/; Chris Panella, “North Korea’s Forces Appear to Be the Latest ‘expendable’ Army Chewed up Fighting Russia’s War against Ukraine,” Business Insider, accessed February 9, 2025, https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-latest-expendable-army-chewed-up-russias-war-tactics-2025-2; Christina Harward and Grace Mappes, “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,” Institute for the Study of War, February 9, 2025, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update...
2025-02-1012 minAssumed RationalityBaltic Sentry: NATO's Latest Mission
Baltic Sentry: NATO’s Latest Mission
Want to learn more?
Christina Anderson and Amelia Nierenberg, “Sweden Suspects ‘Gross Sabotage’ After Damage to Cable Under Baltic Sea,” The New York Times, January 27, 2025, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/27/world/europe/cable-baltic-sea-sweden-damage.html; Dan Milmo, “Wire Cutters: How the World’s Vital Undersea Data Cables Are Being Targeted,” The Guardian, November 22, 2024, sec. Technology, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/22/wire-cutters-how-the-worlds-vital-undersea-data-cables-are-being-targeted; Henrik Pryser Libell and Lynsey Chutel, “Norway Seizes Russian-Crewed Ship Suspected of Cutting an Undersea Cable,” The New York Times, January 31, 2025, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/31...
2025-02-0214 minAssumed RationalityDemocracy Manipulated: Belarus' Elections Under LukashenkoWant to learn more?
KOSTYA MANENKOV and DARIA LITVINOVA, “Belarus Poll Workers Describe Fraud in Aug. 9 Election,” AP News, September 1, 2020, https://apnews.com/article/international-news-ap-top-news-europe-72e43a8b9e4c56362d4c1d6393bd54fb; Pjotr Sauer, “‘A Ritual for a Dictator’: Lukashenko Critics Decry Belarus Election,” The Guardian, January 23, 2025, sec. World news, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/23/alexander-lukashenko-critics-belarus-election-president; Sarah Rainsford, “Belarusian Opposition Denounces Lukashenko and Sunday’s Election,” January 24, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g9dld4pejo; Tadeusz Giczan, “The Rise of Belarusian Oligarchs,” CEPA, July 30, 2020, https://cepa.org/article/the-rise-of-belarusian-oligarchs/; Todd Prince, “Big Brother Is Listening...
2025-01-2712 minAssumed RationalityChlorine in Khartoum: Chemical Weapons in 2025
Explore the chilling resurgence of chemical weapons in Sudan’s ongoing conflict and the global implications of their use. From the trenches of World War I to Assad’s atrocities and today’s looming threat in Khartoum, this episode unpacks the history, impact, and unanswered questions surrounding these weapons of fear.
Be advised: this episode discusses war, genocide, and the use of chemical weapons.
Sources:
Natasha Hall, “Emerging Trends in Chemical Weapons Usage in the Middle East,” n.d.; David Lewis, Daphne Psaledakis, and Daphne Psaledakis, “US Issues Sanctions on Sudanese Army Chief Bur...
2025-01-1913 minAssumed RationalityWhy is it so hard to close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay?This episodes discusses torture, please listen with care.
Looking for more information?
Alice Cuddy, “US Moves 11 Guantanamo Bay Detainees to Oman,” BBC, January 8, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg3k2v11k5o; S O’Mara, “Captive Brain: Torture and the Neuroscience of Humane Interrogation | QJM: An International Journal of Medicine | Oxford Academic,” QJM: An International Journal of Medicine 111, no. 2 (January 3, 2018): 73–78, https://doi.org/10.1093/qjmed/hcx252; Jennifer K. Elsea, “Naval Station Guantanamo Bay: History and Legal Issues Regarding Its Lease Agreements” (Congressional Research Service, August 1, 2022), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44137; Carol...
2025-01-1212 min