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David Lebovitz

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Insights Now2025-12-1222 minThis Is TASTE2025-09-291h 08She\'s My Cherry Pie2025-09-2745 minEverything Cookbooks2025-09-1053 minInsights Now2025-08-2121 minDavid C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB2025-06-2358 min今日美股
今日美股(4/5)标普500跌破5100点,摩根大通喊“买入”:机会还是陷阱?大家好,我是晓晨,欢迎收听今天的财经播客。今天是4月5日,昨天市场又是惊心动魄的一天,标普500指数跌破5100点,油价黄金都在跳水,投资者估计都快吓出心脏病了。不过呢,摩根大通的分析师David Lebovitz站出来说话了,他说美国股市已经跌到“低点买入区间”,还觉得美国能躲过关税引发的经济衰退。这话听着挺提气,咱今天就来聊聊,他这观点靠谱不靠谱,股市这波跌势到底是危机还是机会。先说说背景。周五标普500收盘505.28美元,一天跌了5.8%,从开盘523.67美元到最低502.35美元,活脱脱像个过山车。这数据可不是随便编的,实时金融数据清清楚楚。Lebovitz一直在等这指数跌到5100点,结果周五下午真破了,他反倒不慌,说这正是买入的好时候。他这话一出,市场耳朵都竖起来了,毕竟摩根大通的分析师分量不轻。可晓晨我得泼点冷水,他自己也说了,不是“完全押注”,还承认衰退风险在上升,这不就是在给自己留后路吗?Lebovitz的逻辑是这样的:美国经济底子还行,关税这把火烧得再猛,也不至于把经济直接烧进衰退。他觉得,近期股市抛售是情绪化的,跌到这水平,股票估值便宜了,长线回报反而有戏。他的原话是“股票越便宜,我们就越感兴趣”,还搬出历史数据说,非衰退年份减持股票往往赚不到啥。这话听着挺有道理,标普500现在跌到505.28美元,比年初601.82美元低了一大截,市盈率估计也下来了,确实有点“捡便宜货”的味道。但这事儿没那么简单。晓晨我看,这波跌势的根儿在特朗普的关税政策。周五WTI原油跌破62美元,黄金逼近3000美元,全都跟关税预期脱不了干系。关税一加,全球贸易链一紧,经济增速肯定得喘口气。Lebovitz说能避开衰退,可美联储前两天还在喊“不确定性”,油价这周跌超10%,企业成本眼看着要涨,消费端还能撑多久?再加上SPY这周从周一的573.83美元跌到周五的505.28美元,市场情绪明显是恐慌多过理性,Lebovitz这“低点买入”的底气,到底从哪儿来的?再说说风险。Lebovitz自己都承认,衰退风险在上升。周五标普500跌到502.35美元的低点,盘中波动那么大,说明空头还没撤退。他想“适度加仓”,但要是关税落地,通胀蹿起来,美联储被迫加息,那股市可不是跌到5100点就打住的事儿。反过来,要是经济真扛住了,505.28美元这价位回头看确实可能是低谷,长线投资者没准真能捞一笔。晓晨我掐指一算,他这策略有点像赌徒心理——赌美国经济韧性够强,赌市场恐慌是暂时的。对咱们普通人来说,这波跌势看着吓人,但也别急着跑路。SPY从去年4月的501.98美元涨到今年1月的601.82美元,现在又跌回505.28美元,起起落落不就是股市常态吗?Lebovitz的思路给点启发,跌得多了确实可能有捡漏的机会,但得悠着点,别一头扎进去当接盘侠。短期内,市场还得消化关税和经济数据的双重冲击,505.28美元这底儿稳不稳,还得再看几天。好了,今天就聊到这儿。我是晓晨,喜欢这期节目的朋友,记得关注、点赞、转发一条龙支持一下!当然啦,以上内容纯属个人分析,咱们下期再见!
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