Shows
Increments#85 (Reaction) - On Confidence and Evidence: Reacting to Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian (Part 1)We all knew that Vaden would release his inner Youtube debate bro at some point. Well he finally paid Ben enough to do it, and here we are: our first reaction video. Today we're commenting on the video What's the most rational way to know?, a discussion between Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian on the relationship between confidence and evidence. Are we overly confident in our ability to make reaction videos? Evidently.
Check out more from Brett Hall here and Peter Boghossian here.
We discuss
What is the relationship between confidence and evidence?
The "...2025-05-091h 49
The Influential Personal Brand PodcastChoose Your HardChoose Your Hard — A Life-Changing Mindset Shift with Rory Vaden In this episode of the Influential Personal Brand Podcast, AJ Vaden delivers a powerful message that will transform how you approach life’s challenges. Whether it's in your health, relationships, finances, or personal growth, everything in life is hard — but you get to choose your hard. AJ dives deep into: Why hard choices lead to greater satisfaction and growth Real-life examples that highlight the power of intentional decision-making How discomfort in the short term often leads to peace, progress, and pur...2025-04-1106 min
Defying The OddsRebekah's Journey to Healthy Hair and Immune SupportSend us a text In this inspiring episode of "Defying the Odds," host Abby Vaden sits down with Rebekah, the founder of Golden Growth Vitamins. Rebekah shares her personal story of overcoming hair and health challenges, leading her to develop the Hair Growth + Immune Support Vitamins that have changed her life and helped many others achieve remarkable results.Rebekah opens up about her struggles with thinning hair, fallout, and a weakened immune system, and how these issues impacted her confidence and well-being. Through perseverance and determination, Rebekah embarked on a journey of research and...2025-04-0723 min
Increments#83 - The Anxious Generation Round II: Alternative ExplanationsRound two on the anxious generation. Well, honestly, round three. But we had a false start with round two, which is why this episode is a little late in coming. If you want to hear the gory, data-heavy details of our second attempt, you can access the episode by becoming a patron (was there ever a better sell?).
We discuss
Whether the rise in self-harm rates was due to reporting changes
Whether education and common core could be affecting mental health
Whether cultural pessimism is on the rise
Cyberbullying
Martin Gurri's thesis on the digital...2025-03-271h 21The Influential Personal Brand PodcastMy Most Influential Books from 2024 with AJ VadenIn 2024, AJ committed to reading two books every month of the year, a tradition she’s been building on for three consecutive years! Today, she shares her most influential books for 2024, how they have shaped her outlook, and why you might want to check them out yourself. Discover why Unreasonable Hospitality by Will Guidara is required reading for the entire Brand Builders Group team; how Gary Thomas’s Sacred Marriage has deepened AJ’s understanding of what it means to be married; what The Go-Giver by Bob Burg teaches readers about learning through relationships; why AJ decided to revisit Take t...2025-02-1138 min
Increments#79 (Bonus) - The Mitford SistersHope everyone is having a great holiday! Today we're releasing a short lil' bonus episode from the patreon archives before we get back into the serious and professional business of podcasting in the new year. A few months ago, Vaden appeared on the forthcoming Treacherous Jezebels podcast, to discuss the life of Unity Valkyrie Freeman-Mitford, the most treacherous of jezebels. Her biography is... shall we say... quite something. Even Hitler had to get his rocks off every once and a while.
(Links to Treacherous Jezebels podcast will be added when their website is up!)
We...2024-12-2924 min
Increments#78 - What could Karl Popper have learned from Vladimir Nabokov? (w/ Brian Boyd)Where do you arrive if you follow Vaden's obsessions to their terminus? You arrive at Brian Boyd, the world expert on the two titanic thinkers of the 20th century: Karl Popper and Vladimir Nabokov.
Boyd wrote his PhD thesis on Nabokov's 1969 novel Ada, impressing Nabokov's wife Vera so much that he was invited to catalogue Nabokov's unpublished archives. This led to Boyd's two-volume biography of Nabokov, which Vera kept on her beside table. Boyd also developed an interest in Popper, and began research for his biography in 1996, which was then promptly delayed as he worked on his...2024-12-101h 00
Increments#77 (Bonus) - AI Doom Debate (w/ Liron Shapira)Back on Liron's Doom Debates podcast! Will we actually get around to the subject of superintelligent AI this time? Is it time to worry about the end of the world? Will Ben and Vaden emotionally recover from the devastating youtube comments from the last episode?
Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.
We discuss
Definitions of "new knowledge"
The reliance of deep learning on induction
Can AIs be creative?
The limits of statistical prediction
Predictions of what deep learning cannot accomplish
Can ChatGPT write funny jokes?
...2024-11-192h 21
Increments#76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira)Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians.
Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.
We...2024-11-082h 50
Increments#75 - The Problem of Induction, Relitigated (w/ Tamler Sommers)When Very Bad Wizards meets Very Culty Popperians. We finally decided to have a real life professional philosopher on the pod to call us out on our nonsense, and are honored to have on Tamler Sommers, from the esteemed Very Bad Wizards podcast, to argue with us about the Problem of Induction. Did Popper solve it, or does his proposed solution, like all the other attempts, "fail decisively"?
(Warning: One of the two hosts maaay have revealed their Popperian dogmatism a bit throughout this episode. Whichever host that is - they shall remain unnamed - apologizes quietly...2024-10-231h 41
Increments#73 - The Unfairness of Proportional RepresentationWant to make everyone under 30 extremely angry? Tell them you don't like proportional representation. Tell them proportional representation sucks, just like recycling. In this episode, we continue to improve your popularity at parties by diving into Sir Karl's theory of democracy, and his arguments for why the first-past-the-post electoral system is superior to proportional representation systems. And if you find anyone left at the party who still wants to talk to you, we also cover Chapter 13 of Beginning of Infinity, where Deutsch builds upon Popper's theory. And always remember,
First-Past-The-Post: If it's good enough for the horses...2024-09-131h 25The Influential Personal Brand PodcastOn the Other Side of Fear | Victoria Jackson Episode RecapWorrying is part of the human condition. It is based on the universal experience of fear and cannot be escaped by anyone. But what if you could challenge that worry and find a way to get to the other side of it? Today on the Influential Personal Brand Podcast, we are recapping AJ’s conversation with the incredible Victoria Jackson and discussing the beauty that lies on the other side of fear. Tuning in, you’ll hear some highlights from AJ’s conversation with Victoria, how you can get past fear, the relief and joy that lies at the end of...2024-08-1617 minThe Influential Personal Brand PodcastFrom Income to Impact: How to Make the Most Out of Your Gifts with Victoria JacksonWhat truly sets successful entrepreneurs apart is their ability to persevere and make use of what they have to make a true impact in the world! Today we are joined by the incredibly influential National Women’s Hall of Fame nominee, Victoria Jackson. Victoria is the owner of the original ‘no makeup, makeup’ brand now called, No Makeup Makeup. Victoria pioneered this incredible concept that has taken the beauty industry by storm all while healing from her sexual assault survival, raising three children, battling her daughter’s rare autoimmune disease, funding a massive charity, and so much more! Tune in to th...2024-08-1344 minThe Influential Personal Brand Podcast4 Painful Lessons I Wish I Knew Before Becoming An EntrepreneurWe are back with another special recap episode of the Influential Personal Brand Podcast! Today’s recap is based off of our interview with Clate Mask, CEO and Co-Founder of Keap. Join Rory as he shares four painful lessons he wished he’d known before becoming an entrepreneur! Thanks for tuning in, enjoy! Key Points From This Episode: Perseverance matters more than pedigree. Why you need to up your game with making sales, building systems, and recruiting superstars! Loyalty is just a paycheck away (the scariest thing to learn). All that matters is what’s in yo...2024-08-0909 min
Increments#71 (C&R, Chap 19: Part I) - The History of Our Time: An Optimist's ViewBack to the Conjectures and Refutations series, after a long hiatus! Given all that's happening in the world and the associated rampant pessimism, we thought it would be appropriate to tackle Chapter 19 - A History of Our Time: An Optimist's View. We get through a solid fifth of the chapter, at which point Ben and Vaden start arguing about whether people are fundamentally good, fundamentally bad, or fundamentally driven by signalling and incentives. And we finally answer the all-important question on everyone's mind: Does Adolf Eichmann support defunding the police? Banal Lives Matter.
We discuss
Thoughts...2024-08-021h 12The Influential Personal Brand PodcastWhat's Your Competitive Advantage | David Avrin Episode RecapOur recent conversation with marketing, public relations, and branding strategist, David Avrin highlighted many crucial lessons for growing your personal brand, namely the importance of finding your competitive advantage. In today's episode, we expand on that conversation with an exploration of everything that isn't your competitive advantage. This list may surprise you as it includes the quality of your product, the quality of your staff, and your use of technology as things that do not contribute toward your competitive advantage. We also reveal how to find your competitive advantage by working out everything about you and your business that...2024-07-1914 min
Increments#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't?
Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in...2024-07-091h 30
Increments#68 - Libertarianism IV: Political Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)The final part in a series which has polarized the nation. We tackle -- alongside Bruce Nielson as always -- the remaining part of Scott's FAQ: Political Issues. Can the government get anything right? Has Scott strawmanned the libertarian argument in this section? Is libertarianism an economic theory, a political theory, a metaphysical theory, or a branch of physics? And what do Milton and Ludwig have to say about all this? Warning: we get a little meta with this one...
We discuss
Is the government effective at doing anything?
What's the use of thinking counterfactually?
Is...2024-05-301h 50
Increments#67 - Libertarianism III: Social Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)Have you ever wanted to be more rich? Have you considered just working a bit harder? Welcome to part III of our libertarian series, where we discuss Part B: Social Issues of Scott Alexander's Anti-Libertarian FAQ, which critiques the libertarian view that if you're rich, you deserve it, and if you're poor, well, you deserve that too. As always, the estimable Bruce Nielson (@bnielson) helps guide is through the thorny wicket of libertarian thought.
We discuss
Do the poor deserve to be poor? Waddabout the rich?
Is dogmatism ever a good thing?
Is social mobility determined...2024-05-091h 45
Increments#66 - Sex Research, Addiction, and Financial Domination (w/ Aella)What do you get when you mix nerds and sex research? A deep dive into the world of fetish statistics, men's calibration about women's sexual preferences, and the crazy underground world of financial domination. Stay tuned as Aella walks the boys through the world of gangbangs, camming, OnlyFans, escorting, findom, and even live-tests Vaden's wild hypothesis against her huge, thick, dataset.
We discuss
How to describe what Aella does
Aella's bangin' birthday party
The state of sex research
Conservative and neo-trad pushback and whether Aella is immune from cancellation
Are men calibrated when it comes to...2024-04-181h 06
Increments#65 - Libertarianism II: Economic Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)Back at it again, as we coerce you into listening to Part 2 of our four part series on Libertarianism, with Mr. Bruce Nielson (@bnielson01). In this episode we cover the Economic Issues section of Scott Alexander's (non-aggressive and principled) non-libertarian FAQ, and discuss his four major economic critiques of the libertarian view that free and voluntary trade between consenting, informed, rational individuals is the best possible thing ever, with no downsides at all. Also, can we interest you in buying some wasps?
We discuss
Loose ends from last episode - coercion and the Non-Aggression Principle
What...2024-03-281h 33
Increments#64 - Libertarianism I: Intro and Moral Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)Liberty! Freedom! Coercion! Taxes are theft! The State is The Enemy! Bitcoin! Crypto! Down with the central banks! Let's all return to the Gold Standard!
Have you encountered such phrases in the wild? Confused, perhaps, as to why an afternoon beer with a friend become an extended diatribe against John Maynard Kaynes? Us too, which is why we're diving into the ideological source of such views: Libertarianism.
Welcome to Part 1 of a four part series where we, with Bruce Nielson (@bnielson01) as our battle-hardened guide, dive into Scott Alexander's non-libertarian FAQ. Ought George help, or...2024-03-071h 52
Increments#63 - Recycling is the DumpsClose your eyes, and think of a bright and pristine, clean and immaculately run recycling center, green'r than a giant's thumb. Now think of a dirty, ugly, rotting landfill, stinking in the mid-day sun. Of these two scenarios, which, do you reckon, is worse for the environment?
In this episode, Ben and Vaden attempt to reduce and refute a few reused canards about recycling and refuse, by rereading Rob Wiblin's excellent piece which addresses the aformentioned question: What you think about landfill and recycling is probably totally wrong. Steel yourselves for this one folks, because you may...2024-02-141h 06
Increments#62 (Bonus) - The Principle of Optimism (Vaden on the Theory of Anything Podcast)Vaden has selfishly gone on vacation with his family, leaving beloved listeners to fend for themselves in the wide world of epistemological confusion. To repair some of the damage, we're releasing an episode of The Theory of Anything Podcast from last June in which Vaden contributed to a roundtable discussion on the principle of optimism. Featuring Bruce Nielson, Peter Johansen, Sam Kuypers, Hervé Eulacia, Micah Redding, Bill Rugolsky, and Daniel Buchfink. Enjoy!
From The Theory of Anything Podcast description: Are all evils due to a lack of knowledge? Are all interesting problems soluble? ALL the problems, really?!?! A...2024-02-012h 45
Increments#60 - Creativity and Computational Universality (with Bruce Nielson)Today we [finally] have on someone who actually knows what they're actually talking about: Mr. Bruce Nielson of the excellent Theory of Anything Podcast. We bring him on to straighten us out on the topics of creativity, machine intelligence, Turing machines, and computational universality - We build upon our previous conversation way back in Ask Us Anything I: Computation and Creativity, and suggest listening to that episode first.
Go follow Bruce on twitter (https://twitter.com/bnielson01) and check out his Theory of Anything Podcast here.
(Also Vaden's audio was acting up a bit in...2024-01-041h 58
Increments#59 (C&R, Chap 8) - On the Status of Science and Metaphysics (Plus reflections on the Brett Hall blog exchange)Back to the C&R series baby! Feels goooooood. Need some bar-room explanations for why induction is impossible? We gotchu. Need some historical background on where your boy Isaac got his ideas? We gotchu. Need to know how to refute the irrefutable? Gotchu there too homie, because today we're diving into Conjectures and Refutations, Chapter 8: On the Status of Science and Metaphysics.
Oh, and we also discuss, in admittedly frustrated tones, the failed blog exchange between Brett Hall and Vaden on prediction and Austrianism. If you want the full listening experience, we suggest reading both posts before...2023-12-221h 26
Increments#58 - Ask Us Anything V: How to Read and What to ReadAlright people, we made it. Six months, a few breaks, some uncontrollable laughter, some philosophy, many unhinged takes, a little bit of diarrhea and we're here, the last Ask Us Anything. After this we're never answering another God D*** question. Ever.
We discuss
Do you wish you could change your own interests?
Methods of information ingestion
Taking books off their pedestal bit
Intellectual influences
Veganism (why Ben is, why Vaden isn't)
Anti-rational memes
Fricken Andrew Huberman again
Stoicism
Are e-fuels the best of the best or the worst of the worst?
Questions
(Andrew...2023-11-291h 40
Increments#57 (Bonus) - A calm and soothing discussion of The PatriarchyWe we're looking for a nice light topic for our patron only episode, so Vaden naturally chosen to chat about the patriarchy. I guess he didn't get into enough trouble in his personal life talking about it so he wanted to make his support and admiration for the patriarchy public.
This is a sneak preview into the land of patreon bonus episodes, so be sure to fork over some cold hard cash if you'd like a bit more mansplaining in your life.
We discuss
Harassment of women in various spheres of life
The patriarchy...2023-11-151h 01
Increments#56 - Ask Us Anything IV: Certainty, Emergence, and Popperian ImperativesPerhaps you thought, in your infinite ignorance, that the release of the previous episode marked the end of the age of the AMA! But nay my friends, the age of the AMA has just begun! We'll answer your questions until the cows come home; until Godot arrives; until all the world's babies are potty-trained. Or, at least, until we stop laughing.
We discuss
Potty training, taking babies seriously, and adult diapers
Why Vaden never daydreams, fantasizes, or minds spending 10 hours in a car
Whether the subjective notions of certainty, belief, or confidence deserve a spot in...2023-11-011h 21
Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 6: Part 3: How do you get into Heaven? SanctificationWelcome back to Eternal Life, the free podcast series where everyone belongs, even if you don’t believe. We are exploring the life of Jesus Christ by objectively examining historical, logical, and academic evidence that documents the existence of the greatest man to have ever lived. Today, we are continuing with part three of question six: How do you get into heaven? So, you’ve prayed the salvation prayer and you now know that your eternity is secured, now what? Well, it’s time for you to live your life as a Christian, and The Bible proposes seven w...2023-10-301h 44Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 3: Was Jesus Just a Good Teacher or Something MoreWelcome back to Eternal Life as we continue to explore the seven questions that when answered, will ultimately reveal the true wonder of our Lord, Jesus Christ. This series is for anyone who is looking for facts and evidence about Jesus and His life, from the hardened skeptic to the emphatic believer. Today, we dive into the third of our seven questions: Was Jesus just a good teacher or something more? Three things set Jesus far apart from other prophets, thought leaders, and respected speakers of the time: What Jesus said, how He lived, and how the w...2023-10-302h 26Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 7: Part 4: What Do We Know About Heaven – Our Inheritance?Welcome to the final episode of Eternal Life; the free, short podcast series exploring the life of Jesus for anyone from devout Christian to curious skeptic. If you have ever struggled with believing in the miracles of the Bible without having evidence, then this series is for you! Today, we are delving into part four of question seven: What do we know about Heaven – our inheritance? Previously, we discussed Heaven versus Hell, what Heaven may look and feel like, and the true nature of Heaven. Today, we continue exploring misconceptions about Heaven; namely, the belief that our ent...2023-10-3059 minEternal Life PodcastQuestion 7: Part 3: What do we know about Heaven? What is Heaven like?Welcome to another episode of the Eternal Life podcast, crafted for those earnestly exploring the path to truth even if they occasionally grapple with embracing the extraordinary and mystical facets of the Christian faith. Today, we continue our exploration with part three of question seven: What do we know about Heaven? What is it like?In part one of question seven, we compared Heaven and Hell. In part two, we discovered that Heaven is far from the stereotypical image of clouds and harps and instead, it resembles the Garden of Eden, capturing the essence of the best...2023-10-301h 56Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 7: Part 2: What do we know about Heaven? Where is Heaven?The Eternal Life Podcast is a safe place where you can belong without having to believe as we aim to explore the logical and historical facts and circumstances that surround the life of Jesus, whom many call Christ. Today, we’re taking an objective look at what we actually know about Heaven.In part one of question seven, we defined and compared Heaven and hell according to the Bible. Today, in part two, we get a little more specific and ask: where the heck is Heaven anyway? Is Heaven where we will spend eternity? Is it really fl...2023-10-301h 08Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 7: Part 1: What do we know about Heaven? Heaven and HellIn this free podcast series, we take an objective approach to examining the life of Jesus of Nazareth with logical and academic evidence. We are glad to welcome you back to Eternal Life as we dive into question seven: what do we know about Heaven? Today’s episode is all about defining and comparing Heaven and hell. Many people aren’t excited about life after earth because they do not have a clear picture of Heaven; they don’t actually know what eternal life entails! Even if you don’t believe in God, understanding both Heaven and hell shou...2023-10-3058 minEternal Life PodcastQuestion 6: Part 2: How do you get into Heaven? What do you literally need to do?This exclusive podcast series is designed to cater to those who are genuinely in pursuit of truth, even if they occasionally find it challenging to embrace the extraordinary and mystical aspects of the Christian belief system. Today, we continue with part two of our dissection of question six: How do you get into Heaven? What do you literally need to do?Thus far in the series, we’ve explored the story of Jesus and looked at his life, crucifixion, and resurrection. But what does this all mean for your life? How does it apply to you? And ho...2023-10-301h 31Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 6: Part 1 How do you get into Heaven: Why do you need a sacrificeWelcome back to Eternal Life, the special podcast series open to everyone, where you can belong without needing to believe. Join us in this safe space where we delve into the logical, historical, and scholarly facets encompassing Jesus's life and answer the Seven Questions every Intelligent Skeptic should ask about Jesus of Nazareth. In today’s episode we explore the first part of question number six: How do you get into Heaven? And why do you need a sacrifice?For us to fully grasp how to get into Heaven, we must first gain a deeper understanding of Go...2023-10-301h 22Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 5: Part 4: What Evidence is there that Jesus Rose from the Dead? Reason 8In the Eternal Life Podcast, we fearlessly explore the most profound questions surrounding the life and resurrection of Jesus Christ. In today’s episode, we continue our journey into Question 5, Part 4, as we delve into Reason 8: an exploration of the Bible as a historical and non-fictional record of Jesus' resurrection. The Bible is a rich tapestry of stories, teachings, and parables. We dive into the complexities and enduring debates surrounding its interpretation, offering insights into the diverse lenses through which it has been viewed throughout history. What does it truly mean to be Christian, and how does the...2023-10-301h 15Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 5: Part 3: What Evidence is there that Jesus Rose from the Dead? Reasons 5 Through 7Welcome back to the Eternal Life Podcast, a safe space for you to ask reasonable questions about the existence of Jesus, without judgment. Today we are continuing with part three of question five: What evidence is there that Jesus rose from the dead? Previously, we discussed the first four pieces of evidence of the resurrection and in this episode, we delve into reasons five through seven proving that Jesus rose from the dead. Not only were Jesus’ disciples tortured and murdered for their beliefs, but many Jewish people broke away from traditions in favor of Jesus after thi...2023-10-301h 36Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 5: Part 2: What Evidence is there that Jesus Rose from the Dead? Reason 4Welcome back to Eternal Life, the for-everyone and free podcast series that objectively explores the historical, logical, and academic evidence of the life of Jesus Christ. Today, we are continuing with part two of question five: What evidence is there that Jesus rose from the dead? Our previous episode explored the first three reasons why we cannot deny Jesus’ resurrection, and today we thoroughly unpack reason number four. There are four astonishing conversions that prove to me that Jesus rose from the dead. These are men who denied Jesus as divine and even launched crusades against Christians, befo...2023-10-301h 51Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 5: Part 1: What Evidence is there that Jesus Rose from the Dead? Reasons 1 Through 3Welcome back to Eternal Life, a special series that explores the life of Christ through seven questions and is created for anyone earnestly seeking truth, even if they grapple with accepting some of the more miraculous and supernatural aspects of Christianity. Today we delve into the first part of question number five: What Evidence is there that Jesus Rose from the Dead? Did Jesus truly rise from the dead? How can anyone believe it? How can I believe it? These are crucial, fair, and honest questions, and perhaps the most important when examining the evidence for Jesus a...2023-10-301h 54Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 4: What Evidence is there that Jesus was a Deity?In the Eternal Life series thus far, we have wrestled with three of the seven questions that every intelligent skeptic should ask themselves about Jesus of Nazareth to try to understand the facts and historical accounts that support the narrative we’ve been told. Admittedly, there are some things that are very difficult to believe and understand on the surface about Christianity and Jesus is the lynchpin and cornerstone of it all. That’s why, in today’s episode, we tackle question four: What evidence is there that Jesus was a deity?There are two major reasons that s...2023-10-302h 33Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 2: What Evidence is There That Jesus Was a Real Person?Welcome back to Eternal Life, the podcast exploring the life of Christ through seven questions that hard-core Christians and anyone who may find it difficult to believe in the miracles of God should ask. Today we delve into question number two: Was Jesus a real person? This is a simple question but a very important one for Christians to explore because ultimately, if there was no Jesus, then there could be no Christianity. Before we question if Jesus was the son of God, if He did truly have powers of healing, or if Heaven exists, we need t...2023-10-281h 58Eternal Life PodcastQuestion 1: What is Your Strategy for Defeating Death?Welcome to the Eternal Life Podcast, a series looking at Seven Questions every Intelligent Skeptic should ask about Jesus of Nazareth. This is a special free podcast series, created for anyone who genuinely seeks truth, but sometimes struggles to believe in the miraculous and supernatural elements of the Christian faith. I am Rory Vaden, and I hope this is a safe space for you to belong, without necessarily having to believe. I aim to objectively explore the logical, historical, and academic facts and circumstances surrounding Jesus's life, whom many have come to call, Christ. I aspire to convince each...2023-10-241h 54
Increments#55 - Is all thought problem-solving?Our argument at the end of last episode spilled over into discord, DMs, and world news, so we felt compelled to dedicate a full episode to addressing the question "Is all thought problem solving?" Some arguments make history, like whether atomic bombs were required in WWII, whether all philosophy is simply a language game, and whether the chicken did indeed come before the egg. Will this be one of them?
We cover:
How Vaden listens to podcasts and why he thinks Andrew Huberman sucks (but studies show that Andrew Huberman is great!)
Popper's evolutionary take on...2023-10-0954 min
Increments#54 - Ask Us Anything III: Emotional EpistemologyBack again with AUA #3 - we're getting there people! Only, uhh, seven questions to go? Incremental progress baby. Plus, we see a good old Vaden and Ben fight in this one! Thank God, because things were getting a little stale with Vaden hammering on longtermism and Ben on cliodynamics. We cover:
Is hypnosis a real thing?
Types of universality contained within the genetic code
Pressures associated with turning political/philosophical ideas into personal identities
How do emotions/feelings interface with our rational/logical mind? How should they?
Vaden's (hopefully one-off) experience with Bipolar Type-1 and psychosis
Is problem...2023-09-181h 18
Increments#53 - Ask Us Anything II: Disagreements and DecisionsAsk us anything? Ask us everything! Back at it again with AUA Part 2/N. We wax poetic and wane dramatic on a number of subjects, including:
Ben's dark and despicable hidden historicist tendencies
Expounding upon (one of our many) critiques of Bayesian Epistemology
Ben's total abandonment of all of his principles
Similarities and differences between human and computer decision making
What can the critical rationalist community learn from Effective Altruism?
Ben's new best friend Peter Turchin
How to have effective disagreements and not take gleeful petty jabs at friends and co-hosts.
Questions
(Michael) A critique of...2023-08-141h 34
Increments#51 - Truth, Moose, and Refrigerated Eggplant: Critiquing Chapman's Meta-RationalityVaden comes out swinging against David Chapman's work on meta-rationality. Is Chapman pointing out a fatal flaw, or has Popper solved these problems long ago? Do moose see cups? Does Ben see cups? What the f*** is a cup?
We discuss
Chapman's concept of nebulosity
Whether this concept is covered by Popper
The relationship of nebulosity and the vagueness of language
The correspondence theory of truth
If the concept of "problem situation" saves us from Chapman's critique
Why "conjecture and criticism" isn't everything
References
The excellent Do Explain podcast. Go listen, right now!
In...2023-05-291h 12
Increments#50 - On the Evolutionary Origins of Storytelling, Art, and ScienceFifty godd*** episodes! 'Tis been a ride full of debate, drinks, questionable arguments, Ben becoming both a dualist and a social media addict, and Vaden stalwartly not changing his mind about a single thing.
To celebrate, we dive into a thesis which connects many strands of what we've discussed over the years: Brian Boyd's work on art and fiction. Boyd provides an evolutionary account of why we're heavily invested in both creating and consuming fictional narratives. If this was simply a fun habit without any real advantage, such a propensity would have been selected against long ago...2023-04-242h 00
Increments#49 - AGI: Could The End Be Nigh? (With Rosie Campbell)When big bearded men wearing fedoras begin yelling at you that the end is nigh and superintelligence is about to kill us all, what should you do? Vaden says don't panic, and Ben is simply awestruck by the ability to grow a beard in the first place.
To help us think through the potential risks and rewards of ever more impressive machine learning models, we invited Rosie Campbell on the podcast. Rosie is on the safety team at OpenAI and, while she's more worried about the existential risks of AI than we are, she's just as keen...2023-03-221h 24
Increments#48 (C&R Chap. 18) - Utopia and ViolenceYou may, perchance, have noticed that the sweeping utopian movements of the past did not end well. And most of them involved an horrific amount of violence. Is this connection just chance, or is there something inherent to utopian thinking which leads to violent ends? We turn to Chapter 18 of Conjectures and Refutations where Popper gives us his spicy take.
We discuss
How do you "see" your early memories?
Vaden corrects the record on a few points
Rationality grounded in humility versus goal-oriented rationality
If ends can be decided rationally
How and if goal-oriented rationality leads...2023-02-241h 00
Increments#47 (Bonus) - Dualism, Reductionism, and Explanation PancakesSecond holiday season bonus episode! Vaden joins Chesto on The Declaration podcast to talk about monism, dualism, the reality of abstractions, emergence, and reductionism. This convo was recorded in 2019, but much of the content is evergreen and we think it still makes for interestin' listenin'. Except the sound quality, which leaves much to be desired. Thanks Blue Yeti.
We discuss:
The mind-body problem
Why Vaden is a filthy pluralist and Chesto is a sober, sane, rational materialist
Reductonism vs dualism vs pluralism
The reality of abstractions
Why explanations are central to science
Would you get into...2023-01-161h 32
Increments#46 (Bonus) - Arguing about probability (with Nick Anyos)We make a guest appearance on Nick Anyos' podcast to talk about effective altruism, longtermism, and probability. Nick (very politely) pushes back on our anti-Bayesian credo, and we get deep into the weeds of probability and epistemology.
You can find Nick's podcast on institutional design here, and his substack here.
We discuss:
The lack of feedback loops in longtermism
Whether quantifying your beliefs is helpful
Objective versus subjective knowledge
The difference between prediction and explanation
The difference between Bayesian epistemology and Bayesian statistics
Statistical modelling and when statistics is useful
Links
Philosophy...2022-12-191h 59
Increments#43 - Artificial General Intelligence and the AI Safety debateSome people think that advanced AI is going to kill everyone. Some people don't. Who to believe? Fortunately, Ben and Vaden are here to sort out the question once and for all. No need to think for yourselves after listening to this one, we've got you covered.
We discuss:
How well does math fit reality? Is that surprising?
Should artificial general intelligence (AGI) be considered "a person"?
How could AI possibly "go rogue?"
Can we know if current AI systems are being creative?
Is misplaced AI fear hampering progress?
References:
The Unreasonable effectiveness of...2022-08-291h 07
Increments#42 (C&R, Chap 12+13) - Language and the Body-Mind ProblemBen and Vaden sit down to discuss what is possibly Popper's most confusing essay ever: Language and the Body-Mind Problem: A restatement of Interactionism. Determinism, causality, language, bodies, minds, and Ferris Buhler. What's not to like! Except for the terrible writing, spanning the entire essay. And before we get to that, we revolutionize the peer-review system in less than 10 minutes.
We discuss
Problems with the current peer-review system and how to improve it
The Mind-Body Problem
How chaos theory relates to determinism
The four functions of language
Why you don't argue with thermometers
Whether Popper thinks...2022-07-2150 min
Increments#40 - The Myth of The Framework: On the possibility of fruitful discussionIs there any possibility of fruitful dialogue with your mildly crazy, significantly intoxicated uncle at Thanksgiving dinner? We turn to Karl Popper's essay, The Myth of the Framework, to find out. Popper argues that it's wrong to assume that fruitful conversation is only possible among those who share an underlying framework of beliefs and assumptions. In fact, there's more to learn in difficult conversations which lack such a framework.
We discuss
What is The Myth of the Framework?
The relationship between the myth of the framework and epistemological and moral relativism
Modern examples of the myth...2022-05-3045 min
Increments#39 - The Enigma of ReasonThe most reasonable and well-reasoned discussion of reason you can be reasonably expected to hear. Today we talk about the book The Enigma of Reason by Dan Sperber and Hugo Mercier. But first, get ready for dogs, modern art, and babies!
*We discuss *
Reason as a social phenomenon
The two roles of reason: To justify our actions, and to evaluate the reasons of others
Reason as module of inference, and how that contrasts with dual-process theories
The "intellectualist" vs the "interactionist" approach to reason
Nassim Taleb's notion of "skin in the game"
The consequences of reason...2022-04-281h 01
Increments#38 (C&R Series, Ch. 2) - Wittgenstein vs PopperWe cover the spicy showdown between the two of the world's most headstrong philosophers: Ludwig Wittgenstein and Karl Popper. In a dingy Cambridge classroom Wittgenstein once threatened Popper with a fireplace poker. What led to the disagreement? In this episode, we continue with the Conjectures and Refutations series by analyzing Chapter 2: The Nature of Philosophical Problems And Their Roots In Science, where Popper outlines his agreements and disagreements with Mr. Ludwig Wittgenstein.
We discuss:
Are there philosophical problems?
Why are scientific disciplines divided as they are?
How much of philosophy is meaningless pseudo-babble? (Hint: Not none)
...2022-03-081h 03The Influential Personal Brand PodcastHow To Set Your Coaching Prices with Mary SobonOne of the biggest things that Brand Builders Group clients, especially performance and business coaches, seem to struggle with, is how to set their rates. Whether you gravitate towards charging an hourly rate or putting yourself on retainer, each has its unique benefits and downsides. And determining how to price your services can be a singularly challenging process, especially when you need to demonstrate your value to the client, while also factoring in all the hidden costs that are inherent to being an entrepreneur, in contrast to having a corporate salary with benefits. Our guest today, Mary Sobon, is...2022-03-0453 min
Increments#37 - Montessori Education w/ Matt BatemanWe're joined today by Matt Bateman, one of the founders of Higher Ground Education, to discuss the Montessori method of education and how it compares to other teaching methodologies. Get ready for tiny furniture, putting on your jacket upside down, and teaching your toddler to make eggs benedict. We discuss:
Maria Montessori
What is a Montessori education (besides tiny furniture)?
How Montessori classrooms differ from regular ones
Why long periods of interrupted problem solving is important for a child's development
How Montessori integrates with technology
Drawbacks of traditional methods of testing and grading, and how they might...2022-02-161h 21The Influential Personal Brand PodcastTrends in Personal Branding National Research Study by Brand Builders Group - RecapIn this episode, we recap a very special conversation between co-founders Rory Vaden and AJ Vaden. Rory reflects on his interview with his wife and business partner AJ, about a ground-breaking new study conducted by Brand Builders Group, on the role of Personal Branding in Marketing. Not only does the episode announce the completion of an incredible new national study, but it also describes the new format for the Influential Personal Brand podcast! From now on Rory and AJ will be doubling their weekly output by each conducting their own interviews and recap, all in one episode! Now you’ll...2022-02-1125 minThe Influential Personal Brand PodcastTrends in Personal Branding National Research Study by Brand Builders GroupWhen Brand Builders Group first launched three and a half years ago, we firmly believed that personal branding would be the future of marketing. Since then we have had this belief repeatedly affirmed through our own experiences, along with those of our clients. Yet, with so much rapid change happening, we noticed a surprising amount of misconceptions around the term personal branding. Not just from the general public, but also from amongst our clients, and even within our teams. It was our passion for this topic, and our dedication to basing our practices on unbiased and robust data, that...2022-02-0840 min
Increments#36 - Analyzing Effective Altruism as a Social MovementIn what is hopefully the last installment of Vaden and Ben debate Effective Altruism, we ask if EA lies on the cultishness (yes, that's a word) spectrum. We discuss:
The potential pitfall of having goodness as a core value
Aspects of Effective Altruism (EA) that put it on the cultishness spectrum
Does EA focus on good over truth?
Ben's experience with EA
Making criticism a core value
How does one resist the allure of groupthink?
How to (mis)behave at parties
How would one create a movement which doesn't succumb to cult-like dynamics?
Weird ideas as junk food
2022-01-2756 min
Increments#35 - Climate Change III: Fossil FuelsCome experience the thrill of the shill as we discuss the somewhat-controversial natural resource called "fossil fuels". In this episode, we drill deep into opto-pessimist Vaclav Smil's excellent book Oil: A Beginner's Guide, in what is possibly our only episode to feature heterodox Russian-Ukrainian science, subterranean sound waves, and that goop lady - what's her name? It's unbelievable, right?
We discuss:
The science behind fossil fuels: How they're made, found, processed, and used
Energy transitions and the shale gas revolution
Global oil dependence and human rights
The environmental costs of fossil fuels
Will we reach Peak...2021-11-2947 min
Increments#34 - Climate Change II: Growth, Degrowth, Reactions, ResponsesIn this episode Ben convinces Vaden to become a degrowther. We plan how to live out the rest of our lives on an organic tomato farm in Canada in December, sewing our own clothes and waxing our own candles. Step away from the thermostat Jimmy.
We discuss:
The degrowth movement
The basics of economic growth, and why it's good for developing economies in particular
How growth enables resilience in the face of environmental disasters
Why the environment is in better shape than you think
Availability bias and our tendency to think everything is falling apart
The...2021-11-1055 min
Increments#33 (C&R Series, Ch. 3) - Instrumentalism and EssentialismGalileo vs the church - whose side are you on? Today we discuss Chapter 3 of Conjectures and Refutations, Three Views Concerning Human Knowledge. This is a juicy one, as Popper manages to simultaneously attack both philosophers and physicists, as he takes on instrumentalism and essentialism, two alternatives to his 'conjecture and refutation' approach to knowledge. We discuss:
The conflict between Galileo and the church
What is instrumentalism, and how did it become popular?
How instrumentalism is still in vogue in many physics departments
The Problem of Universals
The essentialist approach to science
Stars, air, cells, and lightning
"What...2021-10-2540 min
Increments#32 - Climate Change I: Initial Thought-CrimesAfter the immensely positive response to our previous episode on the Weinstein brothers - thanks @robertwiblin! - we thought we would keep giving the people what they want, and what they want is a long discussion on climate change. Specifically, the subject for today is: "The State of the Climate Debate". We touch on:
The near perfect partisan split on climate change
Will there be a climate apocalypse?
The promise of nuclear energy as a solution
The limitations of renewables
Energy portfolios
The rebound effect
Degrowth economics
Activist tactics and fear mongering
Whether The Environment has become...2021-10-0651 min
Increments#31 - The Fall of the Weinstein RepublicToday we take your twitter questions before doing a deep dive into the Weinstein fiasco (Bret and Eric, not Harvey.) If you haven't heard of the Weinstein's before, then we suggest you run away before we drag you down into a rabbit hole filled with acronyms, anti-vaxxers, and theories of ... everything? anything? literally anything at all?
Topics we touch:
We take your twitter questions!
Filos with a weird one: I have a weird one that could be fun. It seems to me that the idea that we could upload our minds to a computer is nonsense...2021-09-1454 min
Increments#30 - Let's all just have a good cry (w/ Christofer Lövgren)Christofer Lövgren, host of the marvelous Do Explain podcast and world's most famous Swede (second perhaps only to that Alfred fellow with the peace prize), joins us on the pod to teach us how podcasting is really done. And how to pronounce his last name. When we're not all sobbing, we touch on:
Does Deutschian epistemology give us with Free Will?
Should one identify as a critical rationalist?
Does membership in a community, or identification with a label, affect our ability to give and receive criticism?
How has reading Deutsch and Popper changed our lives?
Can trauma g...2021-08-301h 39
Increments#29 - Some Scattered Thoughts on SuperforecastingWe're back! Apologies for the delay, but Vaden got married and Ben was summoned to be an astronaut on the next billionaire's vacation to Venus. This week we're talking about how to forecast the future (with this one simple and easy trick! Astrologers hate them!). Specifically, we're diving into Philip Tetlock's work on Superforecasting.
So what's the deal? Is it possible to "harness the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events"? Or is the whole thing just a result of sloppy statistics? We believe the latter is likely to be true with probability 64.9% - no, wait, 66.1%. 2021-08-1645 minIncrements#28 (C&R Series, Ch. 9) - Why is Logic Applicable to Reality?Why do logic and mathematics work so well in the world? Why do they seem to describe reality? Why do they they enable us to design circuit boards, build airplanes, and listen remotely to handsome and charming podcast hosts who rarely go off topic?
To answer these questions, we dive into Chapter 9 of Conjectures and Refutations: Why are the Calculi of Logic and Arithmetic Applicable to Reality?.
But before we get to that, we touch on some of the good stuff: evolutionary psychology, cunnilingus, and why Robin is better than Batman.
References:
...2021-07-191h 01Increments#27 - A Conversation with MarianneThere are many overused internet keywords that could be associated with this conversation, but none of them quite seem right. So here's a poem instead:
The Ogre does what ogres can,
Deeds quite impossible for Man,
But one prize is beyond his reach:
The Ogre cannot master speech.
About a subjugated plain,
Among its desperate and slain,
The Ogre stalks with hands on hips,
While drivel gushes from his lips
- August 1968, W H Auden
Send us an email at incrementspodcast@gmail.com
...2021-06-282h 01Increments#26 - Moral Philosophy Cage Match (with Dan Hageman)In a rare turn of events, it just so happened that one or perhaps both of your charming co-hosts spewed a bit of nonsense about Derek Parfit in a previous episode, and we had to bring in a heavy hitter to sort us out. Today we're joined by friend of the podcast Mr. Dan Hageman, immuno-oncologist by day and aspiring ethicist by night, who gently takes us to task for misunderstanding Parfit and the role of ethical theorizing, and for ignoring the suffering of pigeons. The critiques land, and convince Vaden that we should dedicate our resources towards providing...2021-06-081h 33Increments#25 - Mathematical Explanation with Mark ColyvanWe often talk of explanation in the context of empirical sciences, but what about explanation in logic and mathematics? Is there such a thing? If so, what does it look like and what are the consequences? In this episode we sit down with professor of philosophy Mark Colyvan and explore
How mathematical explanation differs from explanation in the natural sciences
Counterfactual reasoning in mathematics
Intra versus extra mathematical explanation
Alternate logics
Mathematical thought experiments
The use of probability in the courtroom
References:
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences by Eugene Wigner.
Proofs and...2021-05-242h 07
Increments#24 - Popper's Three WorldsThis episode begins with a big announcement! Ben has officially become a cat person, and is now Taking Cats Seriously. Vaden follows up with some news of his own, before diving into the main subject for today's episode - Popper's Three Worlds.
In this episode we discuss:The TCS parenting movement Chesto's tweet to DeutschHow Popper's Three Worlds differs from Deutsch's Things/Qualia/Abstractions classificationWould prime numbers exist if humans didn't exist?What constitutes reality?The existence of non-physical entities and the reality of abstractions Having a quick glance at the following wikipedia pages will hel...2021-05-111h 13Increments#23 - Physics, Philosophy, and Free Will with Sam KuypersWe are joined by the great Sam Kuypers for a conversation on physics, philosophy, and free will. Vaden spends most of the episode preparing for a huge debate on free-will, and Ben spends it worried about what alternate versions of himself are up to in parallel universes. Still, we manage to touch on a few topics: Realism and antirealist interpretations of quantum theoryThe advisory styles of Dennis Sciama and John Wheeler and the standardization of education Reconciling the Harris / Deutsch perspectives on Free WillRestorative and Rehabilitative justiceA universe in which Ben spontaneously explodes into dust while spe...2021-05-031h 33Increments#22 - Thinking Through Thought ExperimentsIn this episode, we discuss Peter Singer's famous drowning child thought experiment, the role of moral theories, and the role of thought experiments in moral reasoning. From our perspectives, the conversation went something like this: Ben's POV: Bravely and boldly trying to think through problems, Ben puts forward a stunningly insightful theory about the role of moral argumentation. Vaden, jealous of the profundity of Ben's message, tries to disagree but can't. Vaden's POV: What the eff is Ben talking about? I disagree. No wait nvm I agree. Let's change the subject. References in i...2021-04-151h 16Increments#21 (C&R Series, Ch.1) - The Problem of InductionAfter a long digression, we finally return to the Conjectures and Refutations series. In this episode we cover Chapter 1: Science: Conjectures and Refutations. In particular, we focus on one of the trickiest Popperian concepts to wrap one's head around - the problem of induction. References:Wiki on scientific laws Hume's dialogues concerning natural religion Proof of the impossibility of probability induction One of the YouTube videos on induction. And in case you were wondering what happened to the two unfalsifiable theories Popper attacks in this chapter, you'll be pleased to know that they have merged into...2021-03-2353 minIncrements#20 (HTI crossover episode) - Roundtable Longtermism DiscussionHello and sorry for the delay! We finally got together with Fin and Luca from the excellent HearThisIdea podcast for a nice roundtable discussion on longtermism. We laughed, we cried, we tried our best to communicate across the divide. Material referenced in the discussion:- 80k Hours Problem Profiles- Jon Hamm imprisons us in an Alexa- The Case for Strong Longtermism- A Case Against Strong Longtermism- Nick Bostrom's seminal paper on existential risksQuote: "[Events like Chernobyl, Bhopal, volcano eruptions, earthquakes, draughts, World War I, Wor...2021-03-083h 14Increments#19 - Against Longtermism FAQBack in the ring for round two on longtermism! We (Ben somewhat drunkenly) respond to some of the criticism of episode #17 and our two essays (Ben's, Vaden's) We touch on: Ben's hate mail from his piece on cliodynamicsLongtermism as implying altruistic portfolio shufflingWhat on earth is Bayesian epistemology The Pasadena gameAuthoritarianism and the danger of seeking perfection Arrow's theoremAlternative decision theories focusing on error correction What's the probability of nuclear war before 2100?When are models reliable What problems to work on You will, dear listener, be either pleased or horrified to learn that this will not be our la...2021-02-021h 30Increments#18 - Work AddictionBit of a personal episode this one is! Ben learns how to be a twitter warrior while Vaden has a full-on breakdown during quarantine. Who knew work addiction was actually a real thing? And that there are 12 step programs for people who identify as being "powerless over compulsive work, worry, or activity"? And that mathematics can create compulsive behavior indistinguishable from drug addiction? Vaden does, now.
People mentioned in this episode:
- Andrew Wiles (look at his face! the face of an addict!)
- Grigori Perelman
- Terry Tao's blog post ("There i...2021-01-1434 minIncrements#17 - Against LongtermismWell, there's no avoiding controversy with this one. We explain, examine, and attempt to refute the shiny new moral philosophy of longtermism. Our critique focuses on The Case for Strong Longtermism by Hilary Greaves and Will MacAskill. We say so in the episode, but it's important to emphasize that we harbour no animosity towards anyone in the effective altruism community. However, we both think that longtermism is pretty f***ing scary and do our best to communicate why.Confused as to why there's no charming, witty, and hilarious intro? Us too. Somehow, Ben managed to...2020-12-191h 30Increments#16 - Social Media II: Conversation, Privacy, and Odds & EndsVaden comes battle-hardened and ready to debate and is met with ... a big soft hug from Ben. Ben repents his apocalyptic sins and admits that Vaden changed his mind. Again. God dammit this is getting annoying. To his credit, Vaden only gloats for 10 minutes. Eventually we touch on some other topics: technology as filling nicheswhen is outrage appropriate? the upsides of social media conversation as a substitute for violence Much love to everyone and stay safe out there! Send us some feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com Support Increments2020-12-1050 minIncrements#15 - Social Media I: Manipulation, Outrage, and DocumentariesAlright spiders, point this at your brain. Ben and Vaden do a deep dive into the recent Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma and have a genuine debate, just like the good ol' days. Topics touched:Why Vaden dislikes documentaries, and this one in particularIs reliance on social media a problem?The advertisement modelThe relationship between social media and mental health... and political polarization... and outrage in generalEpistemological erosionWars of words and swordsOutraged? Polarized? Radicalized, even? We want to hear about it at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.Quotes referenced in episode:"This point being cr...2020-11-121h 22Increments#14 (C&R Series, Ch.16) - Prediction, Prophecy, and FascismThe third in the Conjectures and Refutations series, we cover Chapter 16: Prediction And Prophecy in the Social Sciences. There's a bit more Hitler stuff in this one than usual (retweets ≠ endorsements), but only because he provides a clear example of the motherlode of all bad ideas - historicism. We discuss:What historicism is and why it sucksPrediction vs prophecyDifferences between the physical sciences and social sciencesThe success of prediction in the physical sciencesThe role of the social sciencesWhat are laws of nature?Plus a little easter egg! As always send us a little sumptin' sumptin' at incrementspodcast@gma...2020-10-251h 08Increments#13 - Privacy with Stephen CainesStephen is back for round two! In this episode we learn that Vaden wants to live in a panopticon and Ben in a high tech surveillance state. Also, we're all going to use Bing from now on. Stephen Caines is a research fellow at Stanford law school's CodeX centre for legal informatics, where he specializes in the domestic use of facial recognition technology. He received a J.D. from the University of Miami with a concentration in the Business of Innovation, Law, and Technology. Bring on da feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com; we check it at l...2020-10-151h 01Increments#12 (C&R Series, Ch. 17) - Public Opinion and Liberal PrinciplesIn the lead up to the American presidential election, one of the largest and most consequential expressions of public opinion, Ben and Vaden do what they always do and ask: "What does Popper say about this?" The second in the Conjectures and Refutations series, we cover Chapter 17: Public Opinion and Liberal Principles. Largely irrelevant and probably unhelpful, we touch A thesis that the far left and right are converging vis-a-vis reactionary politicsThe idea that "truth is manifest", i.e. obvious The role of free speech and diversity of opinionPolitical polarizationLibertarians and their hate of seatbeltsSend us som...2020-10-121h 15
Increments#11 - Debating Existential RiskVaden's arguments against Bayesian philosophy and existential risk are examined by someone who might actually know what they're talking about, i.e., not Ben. After writing a critique of our conversation in Episode 7, which started off a series of blog posts, our good friend Mauricio (who studies political science, economics, and philosophy) kindly agrees to come on the podcast and try to figure out who's more confused. Does Vaden convert?
We apologize for the long wait between this episode and the last one. It was all Vaden's fault. Hit us up at incrementspodcast@gmail.com!2020-09-171h 29
Increments#10 (C&R Series, Ch. 4) - TraditionTraditions, what are you good for? Absolutely nothing? In this episode of Increments, Ben and Vaden begin their series on Conjectures and Refutations by looking at the role tradition plays in society, and examine one tradition in particular - the critical tradition. No monkeys were harmed in the making of this episode. References:- C&R, Chapter 4: Towards a Rational Theory of TraditionPodcast shoutout:- Jennifer Doleac and Rob Wiblin on policing, law and incarceration- James Foreman Jr. on the US criminal...2020-08-131h 15
Increments#9 - Facial Recognition Technology with Stephen CainesThe talented Stephen Caines punctures the cloud of confusion that is Ben and Vaden's conception of facial recognition technology. We talk about the development and usage of facial recognition in the private and public spheres, the dangers and merits of the technology, and Vaden's plan to use it a bars. For God's sake don't give that man a GPU. Stephen is a legal technologist with a passion for access to justice. He is a 2019 graduate of the University of Miami School of Law with a concentration in the Business of Innovation, Law, and Technology. While in...2020-08-071h 22
Increments#8 - Philosophy of Probability III: Conjectures and RefutationsOn the same page at last! Ben comes to the philosophical confessional to announce his probabilistic sins. The Bayesians will be pissed (with high probability). At least Vaden doesn't make him kiss anything. After too much agreement and self-congratulation, Ben and Vaden conclude the mini-series on the philosophy of probability, and "announce" an upcoming mega-series on Conjectures and Refutations. References:- My Bayesian Enlightenment by Eliezer YudkowskyRationalist community blogs:- Less Wrong- Slate Star Codex- Marginal RevolutionYell at us at...2020-07-291h 10
Increments#7 - Philosophy of Probability II: Existential RisksBack down to earth we go! Or try to, at least. In this episode Ben and Vaden attempt to ground their previous discussion on the philosophy of probability by focusing on a real-world example, namely the book The Precipice by Toby Ord, recently featured on the Making Sense podcast. Vaden believes in arguments, and Ben argues for beliefs. Quotes"A common approach to estimating the chance of an unprecedented event with earth-shaking consequences is to take a skeptical stance: to start with an extremely small probability and only raise it from there when a...2020-07-071h 37
Increments#6 - Philosophy of Probability I: IntroductionDon't leave yet - we swear this will be more interesting than it sounds ... ... But a drink will definitely help. Ben and Vaden dive into the interpretations behind probability. What do people mean when they use the word, and why do we use this one tool to describe different concepts. The rowdiness truly kicks in when Vaden releases his pent-up critique of Bayesianism, thereby losing both his friends and PhD position. But at least he's ingratiated himself with Karl Popper. References:Vaden's Slides on a 1975 paper by Irving John Good titled Explicativity, C...2020-07-021h 17
Increments#5 - Incrementalism Revisited: Defund the PoliceIn their first somber episode, Ben and Vaden discuss the protests and political tensions surrounding the murder of George Floyd. They talk about defunding the police, the importance of philosophy in politics, and honest conversation as the only peaceful means of error-correction. References: https://8cantwait.org/https://www.8toabolition.com/Study which found that body cameras did not have a statistically significant effect. Errata: Ta-Nehisi Coates quote is "essential below" not "eternal under". Full quote is: "It is truly horrible to understand yourself as the essential below of your country."Thin...2020-06-181h 16
Increments#4 - The Hubris of Computer ScientistsAre computer scientists recklessly applying their methods to other fields without sufficient thoughtfulness? What are computer scientists good for anyway? Ben, in true masochistic fashion, worries that computer scientists are overstepping their bounds. Vaden analyzes his worries with a random forest and determines that they are only 10% accurate, but then proceeds to piss of his entire field by arguing that we're nowhere close to true artificial intelligence. References"Good" isn't good enough, Ben Green. "How close are we to creating artificial intelligence?", David Deutsch, Aeon"Artificial Intelligence - The Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet", M...2020-06-081h 31
Increments#3 - Incrementalism vs Revolution: Prison AbolitionBen persuades Vaden that all prisoners should be let loose. Vaden convinces Ben that he shouldn’t use the word “vista” so regularly. At least they stay on topic this time. References: What is the PIC? What is Abolition?, Critical Resistance. Is Prison Necessary? NY Times piece covering Ruth Wilson Gilmore. What is Prison Abolition, The Nation. Support Increments2020-05-251h 22
Increments#2 - Consequentialism II: Strange BeliefsAn attempt to clean up the mess we made last episode. Ben still doesn't figure out how not to yell into his microphone, and Vaden finally realizes what Ben was saying and it was … perhaps not so interesting in the first place? Ben, all too pleased with himself, starts yammering on about future generations. Should we care? God — we promise that next week we’ll try to stick to whichever subject we pick. References: Why the long-term future matters, podcast with Toby Ord. Support Increments2020-05-221h 29
Increments#1 - Consequentialism I: Epistemic ModestyWe attempt to talk about Epistemic Modesty: broadly, the idea that one should be modest in their beliefs when other people (with similar credentials) disagree with them. Vaden however, entirely immodestly, tries abandoning the subject because he’s scared of Ben’s forceful arguments and derails the conversation on to the entirely uncontroversial subject of which systems of moral decision making are best suited for moral progress. A flabbergasted Ben tries to keep up, but too little too late. Most of the time he's just trying to get his microphone to behave anyway. References:In...2020-05-221h 07
Increments#0 - IntroductionBen and Vaden attempt to justify why the world needs another podcast, and fail. Support Increments2020-05-1908 min
My Corner Of The UniverseVaden and Rex-Recap episodeVaden and Rex review the first 15 episodes.2019-10-2430 min