Shows
ECNFINForecast the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the 1st Quarter 2023
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This is the forecast of the S&P 500 Index for 1Q 2023. It is based on the linear regression model, where I use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to predict the value of the S&P 500 Index. This forecast tries to predict a general pattern and direction of the stock market in the near future. When the forecast calls for a negative return, it...2023-03-0309 min
ECNFINImpact of High Oil Prices, Inflation, Debt and Restrictive Monetary Policies on the Health of the Economy
Podcast: Impact of High Oil Prices, Inflation, Debt and Restrictive Monetary Policies on the Health of the Economy.
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It is a combination of multiple negative factors that creates a worrisome diagnosis for already fragile economic health of the US economy. A sharp increase in oil prices from $22 in April 2020 to $120 in June 2022. The highest inflation since 1981 which is likely to stay elevated fo...2022-06-1516 min
ECNFINEconomic Recession Maybe Around the Corner in the US and Europe
Podcast: Economic Recession Maybe Around the Corner in the US and Europe
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Inflationary pressures are becoming less transitory and more long-lasting. Even before the horrific events in Ukraine, inflation was already very high. Additional sanctions on Russia added additional fuel to the fire of already hot inflation. Sanctions on Russia will also have a significant negative economic effect on the world economy an...2022-03-2100 min
ECNFINForecast the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the 1st Quarter 2022
Podcast: Forecast the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the 1st Quarter 2022
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Enter your email address to follow ECNFIN.com and receive notifications of new articles by email for free. Be the first to read and do not miss future timely research publications.
This is the forecast of the S&P 500 Index for the 1Q 2022. It is based on the linear regression model where I use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to predict the value of the S&P 500 Index. This forecast is trying to predict a general pattern, direction, of the stock mark...2022-02-1110 min
ECNFINFifteen Investing Principles
Podcast: Fifteen Investing Principles
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Why should you invest? By investing today, you invest in your future with the hope of a better quality of life. Investing has become more accessible than before. Commission free trading provided access to financial markets for investors of all sizes, it created a greater opportunity to profit even for small investors.Open the right type of the investment accou...2021-04-2745 min
ECNFINThe analysis of the stock market volatility and ways to mitigate the risk
Podcast: The analysis of the stock market volatility and ways to mitigate the risk.
Enter your email address to follow ECNFIN.com and receive notifications of new articles by email for free. Be the first to read and do not miss future timely research publications.
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Abstract:
Oftentimes a successful investing requires the time commitment, ability, and wiliness to take...2021-03-0100 min
ECNFINHow will the new US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen effect the Economy and the Stock Markets?
Podcast: How will the new US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen effect the Economy and the Stock Markets?
President elect Joe Biden nominated Janet Yellen as the 78th United States secretary of the treasury. In my opinion, Janet Yellen will support aggressive fiscal stimulus of the US economy at the beginning of her new job. Her prior experience as the chair of the Fed will create a bridge and very favorable relationship between the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell and the US Treasury Department. Both Yellen and Powell share similar interests in helping the economy and unemployment first a...2021-01-2710 min
ECNFINForecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2021
Podcast: Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2021
This is my 9th annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. This forecast tends to predict a general pattern, direction, of the stock market in the future. When the forecast calls for a negative return, it is a warning sign. It means that the market is ahead of itself and may see a poor performance and volatility in the next 12 months. My forecast does not predict an absolute number rather it gives an overall feeling for the general direction of the stock market in th...2021-01-1112 min
ECNFINValuation of Government Bonds
Podcast: Valuation of Government Bonds
Current valuation of government bonds became expensive. In this paper, I compare the total return on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) with the real yield on the 10-year US treasury bonds. By investing in the long-term US government bonds when the real rates are negative, makes such investment speculative and risky.
The daily real yield on the 10-year US treasury bonds is at the historical lowest level. The real yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds was -0.96% on December 10, 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis d...2020-12-2107 min
ECNFINHow did the international stock markets perform during the Covid-19 recession?
Podcast: How did the international stock markets perform during the Covid-19 recession?
The effect of the Covid-19 on the stock markets around the world was widespread. Most major equity markets around the world witnessed a steep decline in the stock prices. However, the degree of the stock market correction and recovery was different from one country to another. How did various stock markets around the world weather the Covid-19 pandemic?
The Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China. By being the ground zero, you may expect the Chinese stock market to suffer the most from the Covid-19 pandemic. Surprisingly, t...2020-10-0707 min
ECNFINHow much home can you afford to buy due to the decrease in interest rates? Analysis of today’s housing market.
Podcast: How much home can you afford to buy due to the decrease in interest rates? Analysis of today’s housing market.
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Mortgage interest rates have been declining for the last 2 years. There is indirect relationship between the interest rate and home affordability. As rates decrease, the among of money one can borrow increases. With a significant decline in rates, home buyers can borrow more while keeping the monthly payments the same.
Mortgage rates have been in decline since October 2018 until September 2020. On Oct...2020-09-2811 min
ECNFINThe Simple 50/50 Asset Allocation Model – Proven to Withstand the Financial Crisis of 2008 and Covid-19 Pandemic
Podcast 3: The Simple 50/50 Asset Allocation Model – Proven to Withstand the Financial Crisis of 2008 and Covid-19 Pandemic
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The stock market in 2020 can be described as unexpected and highly volatile. With a sharp sell off in February-March to an equally impressive V-shaped recovery. High volatility increases anxiety and can force investors to make poor decisions about investments. Investors may not be able to control their emotions, but they can control how they invest. For risk averse investors, selecting a model with lower volatility is a prudent decis...2020-09-1608 min
ECNFINStructural Wage Stagnation Causes Economic Weakness
Podcast 2: Structural Wage Stagnation Causes Economic Weakness
Wage stagnation is not a new phenomenon but a structural change in the US economy. Looking over the last 34 years, real income remained almost unchanged. Because of the wage stagnation economic growth in the US grew moderately. As disposable income remains relatively unchanged, people have little room to increase spending. Because of low spending growth, there is a limited upside potential for the economy to grow. At the same time, any disruptions to personal income can cause abrupt decline in consumer spending. Since consumer spending explains 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in...2018-07-2211 min
ECNFINPassively Managed Funds and Heuristic Biases: New Challenges and Opportunities
Podcast 1: Passively Managed Funds and Heuristic Biases: New Challenges and Opportunities
The structure of financial markets has changed with the rapid growth and popularity of passively managed funds. Passively managed funds can have a similar effect on the economy as systemically important financial institutions. Trading in passively managed funds may directly affect thousands of securities and have an additional indirect effect across different asset classes. Recently, the correlation among different asset classes has increased making it difficult for investors to diversify. It is fair to say that due to a greater popularity of passively managed funds their influence to...2014-07-0916 min