Shows
Geopolitical CousinsPostmortem on the Iran-Israel WarJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:05) - Postmortem on t...2025-06-2657 minGeopolitical CousinsAmerica Strikes IranJacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes(01:14) - US-I...2025-06-221h 24Geopolitical CousinsTo Bomb or Not To BombJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.--Timestam...2025-06-191h 42Geopolitical CousinsIsrael Strikes IranJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics.--Tim...2025-06-131h 02Geopolitical CousinsManufactured ChaosMarko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-dri...2025-06-111h 33Geopolitical CousinsThe New Age of Making Stuff (or Pretending To) Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things som...2025-06-061h 46Geopolitical CousinsUber-ManlinessMarko kicks off this week’s episode with a takedown of Middle East punditry, arguing that Biden’s calm, calculated response to Iran’s attack on Israel is exactly what stability looks like in a multipolar world. While Jacob frets over deterrence and mixed signals, Marko doubles down: ambiguity is the new clarity. They unpack India’s chaotic yet predictable election, game out what a third Modi term could mean for trade and alliances, and roll their eyes at the latest BRICS buzz. Also: Taylor Swift’s soft power, Saudi predictability, and why global order now runs on vibes, oil, and o...2025-05-291h 32Geopolitical CousinsMaple Syrup and Soft PowerMarko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime.Timestamps:(00:00) - In...2025-05-221h 51Geopolitical CousinsOur 2025 Geopolitical Power DraftThe cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy.Timestamps:...2025-05-151h 26Geopolitical CousinsTikTok Dictators and the End of HegemonyThis week, the cousins speed-run chaos: Houthis hitting Israel, Trump cutting side deals, and Jordan taking heat for not hosting enough sick kids from Gaza. Marko argues that the U.S. is done playing global babysitter, and that might actually be stabilizing. They dig into Israel’s delusions of American loyalty, Burkina Faso’s TikTok dictatorship, and Marko's new theory: “geopolitical tightening.” Jacob’s worried about nukes and future AI plagues, but Marko says multipolarity forces adults to act like, well, adults. Oh, and if President Traoré of Burkina Faso is listening: We accept consulting fees in gold or viral video...2025-05-1256 minGeopolitical CousinsA Jew and a Nihilist Talk About The PopeAfter a whirlwind of parenting, flights, and failed schedules, the cousins are back with overreactions and the U.S. dollar’s free fall. They riff on Chinese tech breakthroughs... but Marko's still not buying BYD over a German car. Europe? Left for dead, so maybe it’s time to buy? Jacob freaks out over India-Pakistan tensions, while Marko tries to keep us from launching WWIII. They also touch on Trump’s Nobel dreams, Pope predictions, and why Japan just became the spiciest trade negotiator in the room. Plus: rice diplomacy and NBA despair.Timestamps: (00:00) - Introd...2025-05-051h 11Geopolitical CousinsThe Tip of a Peninsula with a Bunch of Crazy PeopleMarko unloads on the myth that austerity worked in Greece, calling out lazy linear thinking, Eurozone nerds with Excel models, and Paul Krugman’s fantasy economics. He explains how Greece’s turnaround was real - but not for the reasons anyone thinks - and why Syriza’s U-turn was political heroism, not betrayal. The conversation pivots to India, where Modi is playing the U.S., China, and Europe against each other with tariff diplomacy. Plus: Ottoman nostalgia, Donbas deadlock, and why even ISIS prefers Toyotas.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:17) - Greece's Econom...2025-04-151h 13
Wealthion - Be Financially ResilientMarko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real RiskAre Trump’s dramatic tariffs simply a negotiation tactic rather than an intentional trade war? Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Maggie Lake for a critical conversation explaining why markets have misunderstood Trump’s tariff policy from the beginning and what deeper macroeconomic risks investors should actually be focused on.Key Topics:
How Trump has used extreme tariff threats as leverage, and why markets repeatedly fall for it
What the rise of a multipolar world means for global markets and U.S. economic power
The hidden but urgent risk investors are over...2025-04-091h 01Geopolitical CousinsLet Them Drink BleachTrump's tariff chaos isn’t strategy - it’s a policy car crash in slow motion. Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic walk listeners through how we got here: tariffs based on 6th grade math, no off-ramps, and the U.S. launching a trade war… against everyone. Meanwhile, the rest of the world’s like, cool, we’ll just trade with each other. This isn’t about toaster prices—it’s about the U.S. exporting its own recession. If April 9th isn’t the pivot, buckle up. Come for the analysis; stay for Marko’s tortured basketball metaphor at the end...2025-04-0849 minGeopolitical CousinsRiding on the Hog of a Fiscal OrgyJacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios(13:15) - US Fiscal Po...2025-04-041h 44Geopolitical CousinsGet Off Our Lawn!Jacob and Marko make a cousins episode happen even as Jacob is moving into a new office and Marko is on the road – at one point he was literally recording from a bathroom at a hotel in Fort Lauderdale because that is the only place he could get WiFi. What other podcast hosts have that kind of dedication? None! This week the cousins tackle Trump’s latest bevy of tariff threats, discuss the improvement in India/China relations, and close with some lessons to learn from the ongoing protests in Serbia.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro2025-03-2859 minGeopolitical CousinsWill the U.S. go to War with Iran?Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Iran(31:00) - Turkey(46:00) – Indonesia(58:00) – China(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft2025-03-231h 57
Maggie Lake Talking MarketsEpisode 29: What Do Tariffs Mean For Fed Policy? With Jacob ShapiroIt’s been 84 years since we last had Jacob Shapiro, Head of Geopolitical and Macro at The Bespoke Group, on Talking Markets. Well, 7 weeks actually, it just feels like 84 years. Jacob joins Maggie Lake today to discuss what the Fed’s comments may signal about its approach to tariffs, the likely outcomes he sees for the tariff wars, and the shifting relationships between the US and Europe, China, and Russia. Also up for discussion: the arrest of Erdogan’s rival in Turkey and what it means for the country’s long-term prospects, the Ukraine war, and whether Europe is any clos...2025-03-1934 minGeopolitical CousinsF*cking Around and Finding OutThe inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots. -- (00:00) - Intro(00:50) - Approach and Precepts(11:00) – Net Assessments(18:44) – Multipolarity(34:19) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy(42:44) - Canada-US Trade Tensions(47:42) – Inflation and pain thresholds(52:27) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies2025-03-141h 08
Real Vision: Finance & Investing#1015 - What Geopolitic Risks Are Not Priced In? | with Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic🔥 Festival of Learning: Get your FREE TICKET https://rvtv.io/4ayljkuMaggie Lake is joined by Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, to discuss Iran's on Israel, the market's reaction, why the upcoming U.S. election is a global focal point, and the impact these geopolitical events could have on your portfolio.Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities.About Real Vision™:We arm you with the knowledge, the t...2024-04-1553 min
The Jacob Shapiro PodcastCousin Marko: Balloons, Ukraine, and Kyrie IrvingMarko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more. --Timestamps:(0:00) - Introduction(1:14) - U.S. coalition against China(13:14) – Ukraine War(34:14) – Multipolarity(42:30) – India(52:11) – Kyrie Irving--Marko's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/m...2023-02-1559 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastHow Much Longer Can Russia Hold On?Marko Papic is back to talk about the markets, Russia's big fudge on oil (and war), and a little bit of everything else geopolitical! Stick around for some basketball talk after 1:04:10!TimeStamps:3:12 - 23:34 - Markets Update23:30 - 39:30 - Oil, Europe, UAE, Russia39:30 - 52:20 - Ukraine, Russia, The Future52:20 - 1:04:10 - Over-Under1:04:10 - End BasketballMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac...2022-11-071h 21The Jacob Shapiro PodcastEconomy, Energy, and The Odds Of a RecessionMarko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group.Timestamps:2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas21:36-35:54 – Europe35:54-42:00 – China42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia50:52-59:11 – India59:11-1:10:11 – Food1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds1:16:31- end: BasketballThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp2022-07-181h 28The Jacob Shapiro PodcastCousin Marko Is Back! 5/26Marko Papic hops on the CD Pod to talk Biden's new missteps, India, Russia, and SO much more. Marko is a partner and strategist at the Clocktower Group, as you've probably heard us say before - make sure to reach out to us with your thoughts, reactions, or insights!1:15-21:15: Taiwan/Latin America21:15-41:15: Russia/Ukraine41:15-50:05: Europe50:05-end: BasketballQuestions? Comments? Reach out at: kristin@cognitive.investmentsWebsite: https://cognitive.investmentsThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac...2022-05-301h 09