Shows
Doom DebatesTop Economist Sees AI Doom Coming — Dr. Peter Berezin, BCA ResearchDr. Peter Berezin is the Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research, the largest Canadian investment research firm. He’s known for his macroeconomics research reports and his frequent appearances on Bloomberg and CNBC.Notably, Peter is one of the only macroeconomists in the world who’s forecasting AI doom! He recently published a research report estimating a “ more than 50/50 chance AI will wipe out all of humanity by the middle of the century”.00:00 Introducing Peter Berezin01:59 Peter’s Economic Predictions and Track Record05:50 Investment Strategies and Beating the Market2025-04-092h 14
Doom DebatesCosmology, AI Doom, and the Future of Humanity with Fraser CainFraser Cain is the publisher of Universe Today, co-host of Astronomy Cast, a popular YouTuber about all things space, and guess what… he has a high P(doom)! That’s why he’s joining me on Doom Debates for a very special AI + space crossover episode.00:00 Fraser Cain’s Background and Interests5:03 What’s Your P(Doom)™07:05 Our Vulnerable World15:11 Don’t Look Up22:18 Cosmology and the Search for Alien Life31:33 Stars = Terrorists39:03 The Great Filter and the Fermi Paradox55:12 Grabby Aliens Hypothesis01:19:40...2024-11-211h 57
The Knowledge with David Elikwu121. Rationality, Startups, and the Danger of Belief with Liron ShapiraDavid speaks with Liron Shapira, an entrepreneur and angel investor. He is the founder of Relationship Hero, a relationship coaching service with over 100,000 clients. He is also a technologist, rationalist, and serial entrepreneur, known for his sceptical views on crypto and other inflated startups. Currently, he hosts the Doom Debates podcast, which aims to raise mainstream awareness of AGI's imminent risks and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.They talked about:🧠 The bridge between rationality and belief💼 How entrepreneurs find value in risk⚠️ The danger of hype-driven startups🍀 The role of l...2024-10-1735 min
Doom DebatesQ&A #1 Part 2: Stock Picking, Creativity, Types of Doomers, Favorite BooksThis episode is a continuation of Q&A #1 Part 1 where I answer YOUR questions!00:00 Introduction01:20 Planning for a good outcome?03:10 Stock Picking Advice08:42 Dumbing It Down for Dr. Phil11:52 Will AI Shorten Attention Spans?12:55 Historical Nerd Life14:41 YouTube vs. Podcast Metrics16:30 Video Games26:04 Creativity30:29 Does AI Doom Explain the Fermi Paradox?36:37 Grabby Aliens37:29 Types of AI Doomers44:44 Early Warning Signs of AI Doom48:34 Do Current AIs Have General Intelligence?51:07...2024-10-031h 09
Doom DebatesQ&A #1 Part 1: College, Asperger's, Elon Musk, Double Crux, Liron's IQThanks for being one of the first Doom Debates subscribers and sending in your questions! This episode is Part 1; stay tuned for Part 2 coming soon.00:00 Introduction01:17 Is OpenAI a sinking ship?07:25 College Education13:20 Asperger's16:50 Elon Musk: Genius or Clown?22:43 Double Crux32:04 Why Call Doomers a Cult?36:45 How I Prepare Episodes40:29 Dealing with AI Unemployment44:00 AI Safety Research Areas46:09 Fighting a Losing Battle53:03 Liron’s IQ01:00:24 Final ThoughtsExplanation of Double Cruxhttps://ww...2024-10-011h 01The Knowledge with David Elikwu116. Innovation, Technology, and Human Connection with Jonathan HillisDavid speaks with Jonathan Hillis, founder of Cabin, a place for creators to gather together to work on exciting projects 'IRL'. Prior to founding Cabin, he was Director of Product, Shoppers, and Marketplace at Instacart, where, during the pandemic, he grew their workforce of shoppers fivefold.They talked about:💻 How the pandemic shaped the future of technology🏡 The founding story of Cabin🤖 AI centralisation vs. Crypto decentralisation🔧 Balancing techno-optimist ambition with societal norms🚧 The limitations of digital progress🤝 The value of physical interaction in a digital world2024-09-1237 min
Doom DebatesRobin Hanson Highlights and Post-Debate AnalysisWhat did we learn from my debate with Robin Hanson? Did we successfully isolate the cruxes of disagreement? I actually think we did!In this post-debate analysis, we’ll review what those key cruxes are, and why I still think I’m right and Robin is wrong about them!I’ve taken the time to think much harder about everything Robin said during the debate, so I can give you new & better counterarguments than the ones I was able to make in realtime.Timestamps00:00 Debate Reactions06:08 AI Timelines and Key Me...2024-07-121h 11
Doom DebatesRobin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?Robin Hanson is a legend in the rationality community and one of my biggest intellectual influences.In 2008, he famously debated Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI doom via a sequence of dueling blog posts known as the great Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate. This debate picks up where Hanson-Yudkowsky left off, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) is on the order of 50%. Robin's position is shockingly different: P(doom) is below 1%.00:00 Announcements03:18 Debate Begins05:41 Discussing AI Timelines and Predictions19:54...2024-07-082h 08
Doom DebatesPreparing for my AI Doom Debate with Robin HansonThis episode is a comprehensive preparation session for my upcoming debate on AI doom with the legendary Robin Hanson.Robin’s P(doom) is 2024-07-0549 min
Doom DebatesRobin Hanson debate prep: Liron argues *against* AI doom!I’ve been studying Robin Hanson’s catalog of writings and interviews in preparation for our upcoming AI doom debate. Now I’m doing an exercise where I step into Robin’s shoes, and make the strongest possible case for his non-doom position!This exercise is called the Ideological Turing Test, and it’s based on the idea that it’s only productive to argue against someone if you understand what you’re arguing against. Being able to argue *for* a position proves that you understand it.My guest David Xu is a fellow AI doomer, and de...2024-06-301h 32
Doom DebatesCan humans judge AI's arguments?It’s a monologue episode!Robin Hanson’s blog: https://OvercomingBias.comRobin Hanson’s famous concept, the Great Filter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_FilterRobin Hanson’s groundbreaking 2021 solution to the Fermi Paradox: https://GrabbyAliens.comRobin Hanson’s conversation with Ronny Fernandez about AI doom from May 2023: My tweet about whether we can hope to control superintelligent AI by judging its explanations and arguments: https://x.com/liron/status/1798135026166698239Zvi Mowshowitz’s blog where he posts EXCELLENT weekly AI roundups: https://thezvi.wordpress.comA...2024-06-1433 min
"Upstream" with Erik TorenbergLiron Shapira on the Case for Pausing AIThis week on Upstream, Erik is joined by Liron Shapira to discuss the case against further AI development, why Effective Altruism doesn’t deserve its reputation, and what is misunderstood about nuclear weapons. Upstream is sponsored by Brave: Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.--RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHistEvery week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval...2024-03-021h 09The Knowledge with David Elikwu51. Crypto, AI, and Techno-optimism with Liron ShapiraDavid speaks with Liron Shapira, Founder&CEO of RelationshipHero.com, a relationship coaching service with over 100,000 clients.Liron is a technologist, rationalist, and serial entrepreneur, whose skeptical takes about crypto and other bloated startups on BloatedMVP.com have been read over a million times.If you wanted an opportunity to dig into everything that is at the frontier of technology right now, then this is the episode for you.📜 Full transcript:www.theknowledge.io/lironshapira/📹 Watch on YouTubehttps://youtu.be/w72vE97OzDw👤 Connect with Liron...2023-02-231h 17