Shows
Doom DebatesMike Israetel vs. Liron Shapira — AI Doom Debate Dr. Mike Israetel, renowned exercise scientist and social media personality, and more recently a low-P(doom) AI futurist, graciously offered to debate me!00:00 Introducing Mike Israetel12:19 What’s Your P(Doom)™30:58 Timelines for Artificial General Intelligence34:49 Superhuman AI Capabilities43:26 AI Reasoning and Creativity47:12 Evil AI Scenario01:08:06 Will the AI Cooperate With Us?01:12:27 AI's Dependence on Human Labor01:18:27 Will AI Keep Us Around to Study Us?01:42:38 AI's Approach to Earth's Resources01:53:22 Global AI Policies and Risks02:03:02 The Qu...2025-05-082h 15
Doom DebatesTop Economist Sees AI Doom Coming — Dr. Peter Berezin, BCA ResearchDr. Peter Berezin is the Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research, the largest Canadian investment research firm. He’s known for his macroeconomics research reports and his frequent appearances on Bloomberg and CNBC.Notably, Peter is one of the only macroeconomists in the world who’s forecasting AI doom! He recently published a research report estimating a “ more than 50/50 chance AI will wipe out all of humanity by the middle of the century”.00:00 Introducing Peter Berezin01:59 Peter’s Economic Predictions and Track Record05:50 Investment Strategies and Beating the Market2025-04-092h 14
inside OUT: Navigating the Mental, Emotional & Spiritual with JojoSustainable Health Goals in 2025: The MUVWell Method with Liron NosratAs we start a new year, it’s a great time to think about what habits we want to build—not just for today, but for our future selves. What small changes can you make to feel better, live better, and take control of your wellness?In this conversation, Jojo and Liron discuss the importance of personalized wellness and sustainable health practices. They emphasize that health is not a one-size-fits-all solution and explore how to create individualized plans that consider both physical and emotional well-being. The discussion covers practical tips for maintaining health in a busy...2025-01-0137 min
Doom DebatesAI Will Kill Us All — Liron Shapira on The FlaresThis week Liron was interview by Gaëtan Selle on @the-flares about AI doom.Cross-posted from their channel with permission.Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Qi-54I9Zw0:00:02 Guest Introduction 0:01:41 Effective Altruism and Transhumanism 0:05:38 Bayesian Epistemology and Extinction Probability 0:09:26 Defining Intelligence and Its Dangers 0:12:33 The Key Argument for AI Apocalypse 0:18:51 AI’s Internal Alignment 0:24:56 What Will AI's Real Goal Be? 0:26:50 The Train of Apocalypse 0:31:05 Among Intellectuals, Who Rejects the AI Apocalypse Arguments? 0...2024-12-271h 23
Increments#77 (Bonus) - AI Doom Debate (w/ Liron Shapira)Back on Liron's Doom Debates podcast! Will we actually get around to the subject of superintelligent AI this time? Is it time to worry about the end of the world? Will Ben and Vaden emotionally recover from the devastating youtube comments from the last episode?
Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.
We discuss
Definitions of "new knowledge"
The reliance of deep learning on induction
Can AIs be creative?
The limits of statistical prediction
Predictions of what deep learning cannot accomplish
Can ChatGPT write funny jokes?
...2024-11-192h 21
Doom DebatesAI Doom Debate: Vaden Masrani & Ben Chugg vs. Liron ShapiraVaden Masrani and Ben Chugg, hosts of the Increments Podcast, are back for a Part II! This time we’re going straight to debating my favorite topic, AI doom.00:00 Introduction02:23 High-Level AI Doom Argument17:06 How Powerful Could Intelligence Be?22:34 “Knowledge Creation”48:33 “Creativity”54:57 Stand-Up Comedy as a Test for AI01:12:53 Vaden & Ben’s Goalposts01:15:00 How to Change Liron’s Mind01:20:02 LLMs are Stochastic Parrots?01:34:06 Tools vs. Agents01:39:51 Instrumental Convergence and AI Goals01:45:51 Intelligence vs. Morality01:53:57 Mai...2024-11-192h 21
Doom DebatesAI Twitter Beefs #2: Yann LeCun, David Deutsch, Tyler Cowen, Jack Clark, Beff Jezos, Samuel Hammond vs. Eliezer Yudkowsky, Geoffrey Hinton, Carl FeynmanIt’s time for AI Twitter Beefs #2:00:42 Jack Clark (Anthropic) vs. Holly Elmore (PauseAI US)11:02 Beff Jezos vs. Eliezer Yudkowsky, Carl Feynman18:10 Geoffrey Hinton vs. OpenAI & Meta25:14 Samuel Hammond vs. Liron30:26 Yann LeCun vs. Eliezer Yudkowsky37:13 Roon vs. Eliezer Yudkowsky41:37 Tyler Cowen vs. AI Doomers52:54 David Deutsch vs. LironTwitter people referenced:* Jack Clark: https://x.com/jackclarkSF* Holly Elmore: https://x.com/ilex_ulmus* PauseAI US: https://x.com/PauseAIUS* Geoffrey Hinton: ht...2024-11-131h 06
Increments#76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira)Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians.
Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.
We...2024-11-082h 50
Doom DebatesQ&A #1 Part 2: Stock Picking, Creativity, Types of Doomers, Favorite BooksThis episode is a continuation of Q&A #1 Part 1 where I answer YOUR questions!00:00 Introduction01:20 Planning for a good outcome?03:10 Stock Picking Advice08:42 Dumbing It Down for Dr. Phil11:52 Will AI Shorten Attention Spans?12:55 Historical Nerd Life14:41 YouTube vs. Podcast Metrics16:30 Video Games26:04 Creativity30:29 Does AI Doom Explain the Fermi Paradox?36:37 Grabby Aliens37:29 Types of AI Doomers44:44 Early Warning Signs of AI Doom48:34 Do Current AIs Have General Intelligence?51:07...2024-10-031h 09
Doom DebatesQ&A #1 Part 1: College, Asperger's, Elon Musk, Double Crux, Liron's IQThanks for being one of the first Doom Debates subscribers and sending in your questions! This episode is Part 1; stay tuned for Part 2 coming soon.00:00 Introduction01:17 Is OpenAI a sinking ship?07:25 College Education13:20 Asperger's16:50 Elon Musk: Genius or Clown?22:43 Double Crux32:04 Why Call Doomers a Cult?36:45 How I Prepare Episodes40:29 Dealing with AI Unemployment44:00 AI Safety Research Areas46:09 Fighting a Losing Battle53:03 Liron’s IQ01:00:24 Final ThoughtsExplanation of Double Cruxhttps://ww...2024-10-011h 01
Doom DebatesMaciej Ceglowski, Pinboard Founder, Says the Idea of Superintelligence “Eats Smart People” | Liron ReactsMaciej Ceglowski is an entrepreneur and owner of the bookmarking site Pinboard. I’ve been a long-time fan of his sharp, independent-minded blog posts and tweets.In this episode, I react to a great 2016 talk he gave at WebCamp Zagreb titled Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People. This talk was impressively ahead of its time, as the AI doom debate really only heated up in the last few years.---00:00 Introduction02:13 Historical Analogies and AI Risks05:57 The Premises of AI Doom08:25 Mind Design Space and AI Op...2024-08-191h 32
Doom DebatesDavid Shapiro Doesn't Get PauseAI | Liron ReactsToday I’m reacting to David Shapiro’s latest YouTube video: “Pausing AI is a spectacularly bad idea―Here's why”.In my opinion, every plan that doesn’t evolve pausing frontier AGI capabilities development now is reckless, or at least every plan that doesn’t prepare to pause AGI once we see a “warning shot” that enough people agree is terrifying.We’ll go through David’s argument point by point, to see if there are any good points about why maybe pausing AI might actually be a bad idea.00:00 Introduction01:16 The Pause AI Movement2024-08-1657 min
Doom DebatesRichard Sutton Dismisses AI Extinction Fears with Simplistic Arguments | Liron ReactsDr. Richard Sutton is a Professor of Computing Science at the University of Alberta known for his pioneering work on reinforcement learning, and his “bitter lesson” that scaling up an AI’s data and compute gives better results than having programmers try to handcraft or explicitly understand how the AI works.Dr. Sutton famously claims that AIs are the “next step in human evolution”, a positive force for progress rather than a catastrophic extinction risk comparable to nuclear weapons.Let’s examine Sutton’s recent interview with Daniel Fagella to understand his crux of disagreement with the AI do...2024-08-131h 26
Doom DebatesAI Doom Debate: “Cards Against Humanity” Co-Creator David PinsofDavid Pinsof is co-creator of the wildly popular Cards Against Humanity and a social science researcher at UCLA Social Minds Lab. He writes a blog called “Everything Is B******t”.He sees AI doomers as making many different questionable assumptions, and he sees himself as poking holes in those assumptions.I don’t see it that way at all; I think the doom claim is the “default expectation” we ought to have if we understand basic things about intelligence.At any rate, I think you’ll agree that his attempt to poke holes in my doom c...2024-08-081h 40
Doom DebatesLiron Reacts to Martin Casado's AI ClaimsMartin Casado is a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) who has strong views about AI.He claims that AI is basically just a buzzword for statistical models and simulations. As a result of this worldview, he only predicts incremental AI progress that doesn’t pose an existential threat to humanity, and he sees AI regulation as a net negative.I set out to understand his worldview around AI, and pinpoint the crux of disagreement with my own view.Spoiler: I conclude that Martin needs to go beyond analyzing AI as just st...2024-07-312h 37
Doom DebatesLiron Reacts to Mike Israetel's "Solving the AI Alignment Problem"Dr. Mike Israetel is a well-known bodybuilder and fitness influencer with over 600,000 Instagram followers, and a surprisingly intelligent commentator on other subjects, including a whole recent episode on the AI alignment problem:Mike brought up many interesting points that were worth responding to, making for an interesting reaction episode. I also appreciate that he’s helping get the urgent topic of AI alignment in front of a mainstream audience.Unfortunately, Mike doesn’t engage with the possibility that AI alignment is an intractable technical problem on a 5-20 year timeframe, which I think is more like...2024-07-181h 32
Doom DebatesRobin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?Robin Hanson is a legend in the rationality community and one of my biggest intellectual influences.In 2008, he famously debated Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI doom via a sequence of dueling blog posts known as the great Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate. This debate picks up where Hanson-Yudkowsky left off, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) is on the order of 50%. Robin's position is shockingly different: P(doom) is below 1%.00:00 Announcements03:18 Debate Begins05:41 Discussing AI Timelines and Predictions19:54...2024-07-082h 08
Doom DebatesRobin Hanson debate prep: Liron argues *against* AI doom!I’ve been studying Robin Hanson’s catalog of writings and interviews in preparation for our upcoming AI doom debate. Now I’m doing an exercise where I step into Robin’s shoes, and make the strongest possible case for his non-doom position!This exercise is called the Ideological Turing Test, and it’s based on the idea that it’s only productive to argue against someone if you understand what you’re arguing against. Being able to argue *for* a position proves that you understand it.My guest David Xu is a fellow AI doomer, and de...2024-06-301h 32
Doom DebatesAI Doom Debate: Steven Pinker vs. Liron ShapiraToday I’m debating the one & only Professor Steven Pinker!!! Well, I kind of am, in my head. Let me know if you like this format…Dr. Pinker is optimistic that AI doom worries are overblown. But I find his arguments shallow, and I’m disappointed with his overall approach to the AI doom discourse.Here’s the full video of Steven Pinker talking to Michael C. Moynihan on this week’s episode of “Honestly with Bari Weiss”: https://youtube.com/watch?v=mTuH1Ucbif4If you want to get the full Doom Debates experi...2024-06-2128 min
Doom DebatesQ&A: How scary is a superintelligent football coach?Danny asks:> You've said that an intelligent AI would lead to doom because it would be an excellent goal-to-action mapper. A great football coach like Andy Reid is a great goal-to-action mapper. He's on the sidelines, but he knows exactly what actions his team needs to execute to achieve the goal and win the game. > But if he had a team of chimpanzees or elementary schoolers, or just players who did not want to cooperate, then his team would not execute his plans and they would lose. And even his very talented team of highly moti...2024-06-1811 min
Doom DebatesAI Doom Debate: George Hotz vs. Liron ShapiraToday I’m going to play you my debate with the brilliant hacker and entrepreneur, George Hotz.This took place on an X Space last August.Prior to our debate, George had done a debate with Eliezer Yudkowsky on Dwarkesh Podcast:Follow George: https://x.com/realGeorgeHotzFollow Liron: https://x.com/liron This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com2024-06-181h 17
Doom DebatesShould we gamble on AGI before all 8 billion of us die?Chase Mann claims accelerating AGI timelines is the best thing we can do for the survival of the 8 billion people alive today.I claim pausing AI is still the highest-expected-utility decision for everyone.Who do you agree with? Comment on my Substack/X/YouTube and let me know!Follow Chase:https://x.com/ChaseMannFollow Liron:https://x.com/lironLessWrong has some great posts about cryonics: https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/cryonics This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with...2024-06-1656 min
Doom DebatesWhat this "Doom Debates" podcast is aboutWelcome and thanks for listening!* Why is Liron finally starting a podcast?* Who does Liron want to debate?* What’s the debate format?* What are Liron’s credentials?* Is someone “rational” like Liron actually just a religious cult member?Follow Ori on Twitter: https://x.com/ygrowthcoMake sure to subscribe for more episodes! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com2024-06-1239 min
The Influencer Green Room!AI is awesome tool for Content Creators - here is why:Is this the end of Content Creators?AI is able to right now read out a script in your own voice so is it just a matter of time before we can push a button a realistic-looking avatar will replace us on camera?Today, we dive into Hour One and its AI technology!I chatted with Natalie Monbiot who is an entrepreneurial digital media executive, passionate about technology’s power to augment human capacity and communication. She is the Head of Strategy and founding team member at Hour One - an AI comp...2022-05-0933 min
The Influencer Green Room!How to come up with your next video idea - YouTube Strategist reveals his process!Do you struggle to come up with your next video idea?How do you know which video will perform versus which video will not?I chat with Trent Haire, who is a YouTube Strategist working with Creators and generating millions of views.We broke down the Ideation to Creation process!Ideation - coming up with your next video ideaPackaging - thumbnail/ titleContent - the research and crafting the storyPacing - editingCheck out Trent here:https://www.creatorcampfire.cohttps://www.twitter.com/trenthairehttps://www.l...2022-03-2837 min
The Influencer Green Room!5 ways to make more money with your contentLet's be honest, running a social media account or a YouTube channel costs money.It's not free.You have equipment to buy, events to attend, software to invest in, not to mention your time. So how can you earn more revenue from your content?In this episode, Benji Travis and I chat about the 5 ways you can make money with your content!The Influencer Green Room is hosted by Liron Segev and Benji Travis.Liron Segev is a YouTube Growth Strategist at LironSegev.com...2021-08-1019 minThe Influencer Green Room!Why do some videos get more exposure on YouTube?This is a common question: Why do some videos get "picked up by YouTube algorithm" and get more views over other videos?Today in this power episode of The Influencer Green Room, Benji and I break down the reasons why and it has to do with the 3 parts of your video!Nail these 3, and your channel will see greater growth.Tips from Hayden's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/HillierSmithStudios(it will make sense when you listen)The Influencer Green Room is hosted by Liron Segev and ...2021-07-2717 min
Liron YanconskyInterview with Tom Shepherd! MINDSET for Improving Your Art | Episode 137Hey there, Liron here! Today I have a treat for you! I want to share my interview with the Amazing Tom Shepherd. We collaborated before on a YouTube vid, and he then invited me over on his podcast for an interview. If you’re interested in a longer conversation, diving DEEP on the mindset for success … Continue reading Interview with Tom Shepherd! MINDSET for Improving Your Art | Episode 137
The post Interview with Tom Shepherd! MINDSET for Improving Your Art | Episode 137 appeared first on Liron Yanconsky.2021-07-0200 min
The Influencer Green Room!From Small YouTube Channel to 8 figure businessHow do you go from a small YouTube channel to a business making over 8 figures?In this video Guy Cochran shares why going to industry events is so crucial, his blueprint for contacting brands to get noticed, and ultimately the tips to help you get free product or brand sponsorships for your youtube channel. Check out Guy's DVEstore Channel- https://www.youtube.com/user/dvestoreThe Influencer Green Room is hosted by Liron Segev and Benji Travis.Liron Segev is a...2021-06-2944 min
The Influencer Green Room!100 videos in 100 days - HOW?Most of us struggle with making just 1 video a week, so how did Antonio Centeno record 100 videos in 100 days?Antonio Centenno, founder of Real Men Real Style is not only a successful businessman with multiple ventures, but his YouTube channel boasts 2.7 Million subscribers and over 300 million views!How did he do it and what are his tips?That is what Benji dives into in this episode of The Influencer Green RoomCheck out Antonio channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/realmenrealstyleThe Influencer Green Room is hosted by Liron...2021-06-2241 minThe Influencer Green Room!The ONE thing EVERY Creator should focus on for massive YouTube growth!There is one element that makes the biggest difference when growing your YouTube audience.In today's POWER Episdoe of The Influencer Green Room, Benji and I break that down so that you know what you should focus on to grow your audience!The Influencer Green Room is hosted by Liron Segev and Benji Travis.Liron Segev is a YouTube Growth Strategist at LironSegev.com, tech blogger at TheTechieGuy.com, and YouTuber at YouTube.com/LironSegevBenji Travis is a YouTube Coach on 2021-06-0814 min
The Influencer Green Room!YouTube Shorts opportunities with Jake FellmanShort-form content is one of the fastest ways to get into content creation.Right from your phone, you can upload a quick video and within minutes it is live for the world to see. So today's guest has over 2 Billion views in just 6 months using “YouTube Shorts” so on today's episode we asked Jake Fellman how he did it and to share his tips for anyone that wants to capitalize on this huge opportunity.check out Jake Fellman's channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEnqwW6f7bYidXHAI13hhMAThe Influencer Green Room is host...2021-05-2744 min