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Lucy D'Agostino McGowan

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Casual InferenceCasual InferenceStudy Critique: What Went Wrong and How We'd Do It DifferentlyIn this episode Lucy and Ellie dig into a recently publicized paper, "Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid", which has gained attention after being promoted by RFK Jr. as evidence that vaccines cause autism.    Ellie breaks down her Substack critique of the study. Together, she and Lucy discuss the methodological flaws and what a better version of this study might look like.   Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid: https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/ RFK Jr is promoting a new study claiming "vaccines cause autism" but it do...2025-05-0855 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceFrom Model to Meaning with Vincent Arel-BundockVincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy. Vincent's website: https://arelbundock.com/ Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models With marginaleffects for R and Python": https://marginaleffects.com/     Follow along on Bluesky: Vincent: @vincentab.bsky.social Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social     🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp. 2025-04-2445 minCasual InferenceCasual InferencePropensity Scores, R Packages, and Practical Advice with Noah GreiferNoah Greifer is a statistical consultant and programmer at Harvard University. Episode notes: WeightIt package: https://ngreifer.github.io/WeightIt/ MatchIt package: https://kosukeimai.github.io/MatchIt/ Noah's awesome Stack Exchange post: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/544958 Follow along on Bluesky: Noah: @noahgreifer.bsky.social Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.      2025-04-101h 22Casual InferenceCasual InferenceCausal Assumptions and Large Language ModelsLucy and Ellie chat about large language models, chat interfaces, and causal inference. Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?: https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1 Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.2025-03-2751 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceData Integration for Impact with Len Testa | Season 6 Episode 1Lucy chats with Len Testa about a recent analysis he did which combined over 150 publicly available data sources to answer a question about the affordability of Disney World. Len's Deep Dive Post on the Touring Plans Blog [Blog Post] Wall Street Journal Artcile, "Even Disney Is Worried About the High Cost of a Disney Vacation" [Article] Follow along on Bluesky: Len: @lentesta.bsky.social Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade2025-02-2844 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceStarting the Conversation on Models with Alyssa BilinskiAlyssa Bilinski, Peterson Family Assistant Professor of Health Policy, and Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, at Brown University School of Public Health. Her research focuses on developing novel methods for policy evaluation and applying these to identify interventions that most efficiently improve population health and well-being. Episode notes: PNAS paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2302528120 Shuo Feng’s pre-print: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.08.24305335v1 Our uncertainty paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33475686/ Follow along on Twitter: Alyssa: @ambilinski The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi...2024-07-1048 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceFlexible methods with Edward KennedyEdward Kennedy Associate Professor, Department of Statistics & Data Science, Carnegie Mellon. ehkennedy.com Evaluating a Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimator for Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application to HIV Surveillance in San Francisco, California: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/193/4/673/7425624 Doubly Robust Capture-Recapture Methods for Estimating Population Size: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2023.2187814 Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp2024-06-2638 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceWhat Sports and Feminism can tell us about Causal Inference with Sheree Bekker & Stephen MumfordSheree Bekker & Stephen Mumford are Co-directors of the Feminist Sport Lab and have a book coming soon: “Open Play: the case for feminist sport”, coming Spring 2025. Reaktion Books (UK), University of Chicago Press (US). Sheree Bekker: Associate Professor, University of Bath, Department for Health, Centre for Qualitative Research Centre for Health and Injury and Illness Prevention in Sport Stephen Mumford, Professor of Metaphysics, Durham University  A Author of Dispositions (Oxford, 1998), Russell on Metaphysics (Routledge, 2003), Laws in Nature (Routledge, 2004), David Armstrong (Acumen, 2007), Watching Sport: Aesthetics, Ethics and Emotion (Routledge, 2011), Getting Causes from...2024-06-1249 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceObservational Causal Analyses with Erick ScottErick Scott is founder of cStructure, a causal science startup. Erick has expertise in medicine, public health, and computational biology. info@cStructure.io “A causal roadmap for generating high-quality real-world evidence” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10603361/ Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp2024-05-2951 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceFriends Let Friends Do Mediation Analysis with Nima Hejazi | Season 5 Episode 7Nima Hejazi is an assistant professor in biostatistics at Harvard University. His methodological work often draws upon tools and ideas from semi- and non-parametric inference, high-dimensional and large-scale inference, targeted or debiased machine learning (e.g., targeted minimum loss estimation, method of sieves), and computational statistics. Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers by Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo: https://www.jstor.org/stable/44955325 Nima is on Twitter/X as @nshejazi (https://twitter.com/nshejazi) and my academic webpage is https://nimahejazi.org Recent translational review...2024-05-1659 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceFun and Game(s) Theory with Aaditya RamdasAaditya Ramdas is an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, in the Departments of Statistics and Machine Learning. His research interests include game-theoretic statistics and sequential anytime-valid inference, multiple testing and post-selection inference, and uncertainty quantification for machine learning (conformal prediction, calibration). His applied areas of interest include neuroscience, genetics and auditing (real-estate, finance, elections). Aaditya received the IMS Peter Gavin Hall Early Career Prize, the COPSS Emerging Leader Award, the Bernoulli New Researcher Award, the NSF CAREER Award, the Sloan fellowship in Mathematics, and faculty research awards from Adobe and Google. He also spends 20% of his time at...2024-05-0148 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceCookies, Causal Inference, and Careers with Ingrid Giesinger #EpicookiechallengeIngrid is a doctoral student in Epidemiology at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.  Winning cookie recipe Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp2024-04-1746 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceAnalyzing the Analysts: Reproducibility with Nick Huntington-KleinNick Huntington-Klein is an Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Albers School of Business and Economics, Seattle University. His research focus is econometrics, causal inference, and higher education policy. He’s also the author of an introductory causal inference textbook called The Effect and the creator of a number of Stata packages for implementing causal effect estimation procedures. Nick’s book, online version: https://theeffectbook.net/ The Paper of How: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/W2FMEESMMSJMWDEZYY8Y?target=10.1111/obes.12598 Nick’s twitter & BlueSky: @nickchk Nick’s website: https://nickchk.com Follo...2024-04-0345 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceImmortal Time BiasLucy and Ellie chat about immortal time bias, discussing a new paper Ellie co-authored on clone-censor-weights.  The Clone-Censor-Weight Method in Pharmacoepidemiologic Research: Foundations and Methodological Implementation: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40471-024-00346-2  Immortal time in pregnancy: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36805380/  Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp2024-03-2034 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceTargeted Learning with Mar van der LaanMark van der Laan is a professor of statistics at the University of California, Berkeley. His research focuses on developing statistical methods to estimate causal and non-causal parameters of interest, based on potentially complex and high dimensional data from randomized clinical trials or observational longitudinal studies, or from cross-sectional studies.  Center for Targeted Learning, Berkeley: https://ctml.berkeley.edu/ A causal roadmap: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37900353/  Short course on causal learning: https://ctml.berkeley.edu/introduction-causal-inference  Handbook on the TLverse (Targeted Learning in R): https://ctml.berkeley.edu/publications/tar...2024-03-0651 minCasual InferenceCasual InferencePros and Cons of Randomized Controlled TrialsEllie and Lucy kick off the season and introduce our new executive buzzer, Melita! Melita is a masters student in statistics at Wake Forest University and will be helping out with the podcast (and keeping Lucy and Ellie from using too much jargon!) Pros & Cons of RCT paper:  Fernainy, P., Cohen, A.A., Murray, E. et al. Rethinking the pros and cons of randomized controlled trials and observational studies in the era of big data and advanced methods: a panel discussion. BMC Proc 18 (Suppl 2), 1 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12919-023-00285-8 Follow along o...2024-02-2117 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceRemembering Ralph B. D'Agostino, Sr.We are re-releasing an episode from 2021 in remembrance of Ralph D'Agostino, Sr.  Ellie Murray and Lucy D’Agostino McGowan chat with Ralph D’Agostino Sr. and Ralph D’Agostino Jr. about their careers in statistics, looking back at how things have developed and forward at where they see the world of statistics and epidemiology going.  Ralph D’Agostino Sr. was a professor of Mathematics/Statistics, Biostatistics, and Epidemiology at Boston University. He was the lead biostatistician for the Framingham Heart Study, a biostatistical consultant to The New England Journal of Medicine, an editor of Statistics in Medicine and lead e...2023-10-0349 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceEvidence Science with Cat HicksEllie and Lucy chat with Dr. Cat Hicks, VP of Research Insights and Director of Developer Success Lab at Pluralsight Flow, about evidence science.    Follow along on Twitter: Cat: @grimalkina The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2023-07-1849 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceM-Bias: Much Ado About Nothing?Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about a "Causal Quartet" and spend some extra time on M-Bias!   Lucy, Travis, & Malcom's Causal Quartet Paper Lucy's quartets R package Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2023-04-2438 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceThinking about Targeted LearningLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about ENAR 2023 and Targeted Learning! Targeted Learning in R Handbook Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2023-04-1146 minCasual InferenceCasual InferencePrevention Strategies via the #EpicookiechallengeLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with #EpiCookieChallenge winner, Viktoria Gastens! Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Viktoria: @VikiGastens Viktoria's Lab: @PopHealthLabCH Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2023-03-2938 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceSensitivity Analyses for Unmeasured ConfoundersLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about confounding! ✍️ Lucy's new paper: Sensitivity Analyses for Unmeasured Confounders Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2023-03-1438 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceRandomized Controlled Trials: Efficacy versus Effectiveness, Safety vs SafetinessLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about randomized controlled trials, thinking about efficacy vs effectiveness and saftey vs safetiness. ✍️ Frank Harrell's blog post "Randomized Clinical Trials Do Not Mimic Clinical Practice, Thank Goodness" Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2023-02-281h 07Casual InferenceCasual InferenceThe Value of Instrumental Variables with Maria GlymourLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Maria Glymour, Professor of Epidemiology & Biostatstics at UCSF and incoming chair of the Department of Epidemiology at Boston University. Maria successfully convinces Ellie and Lucy that instrumental variables can be very useful in epidemiology.  Follow up: ✍️ Andrew Heiss's blog post on marginal and conditional effects for GLMMs Follow along on Twitter: Maria Glymour: @MariaGlymour The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2022-12-101h 00Casual InferenceCasual InferenceMethods chat about personalized medicine and positivity in causal inferenceLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about critiquing methods research, average treatment effects, and positivity violations! Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade2022-11-3051 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceHot takes and logistic regression love with Travis GerkeLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Travis Gerke, Director of Data Science at The Prostate Cancer Clinical Trials Consortium (PCCTC). This episode has lots of hot takes and lots of love for logistic regression! Follow along on Twitter: Travis Gerke: @travisgerke The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2022-11-1654 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceCounterfactual Thinking: Biomarkers, Napster, and Ice-TLucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about counterfactuals! Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2022-11-0457 minCasual InferenceCasual InferencePopulation and Biomedical Data Science with Enrique SchistermanIn this episode Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Enrique Schisterman, Perelman Professor and Chair of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics at the University of Pennsylvania, about the future of epidemiology. Follow along on Twitter: Enrique: @eschisterman1 The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade2022-10-1354 minR Weekly HighlightsR Weekly HighlightsIssue 2022-W40 HighlightsDesign principles for data analysis, unraveling pipeline analyses with {Unravel}, and visualizing simulated environmental changes in western Canada with Shiny. Episode Links This week's curator: Eric Nantz Design Principles for Data Analysis {Unravel} - A fluent code explorer for R Case Study: Simulating Environment Change Agents on Species in Canada's Western Boreal Forests Entire issue available at rweekly.org/2022-W40 Supplement Resources Casual Inference Podcast: https://casualinfer.libsyn.com Not So Standard Deviations Podcast: https://nssdeviations.com/ Designing for Analytics Podcast: https://designingforanalytics.com/experiencing-data-podcast/ Elements and Principles for Characterizing Variation between Data Analyses...2022-10-0536 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceWhat is the value of a p-value with Charlie Poole and Chuck ScalesIn this episode we play the audio from a recent panel discussion co-sponsored by UNC TraCS, Duke University and Wake Forest U CTSA Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design (BERD) Cores. The panelists were Charles Poole (Associate Professor of Epidemiology, UNC) Lucy D'Agostino McGowan, and Charles Scales (Associate Professor of Surgery, Duke University) and it was facilitated by Marcella Boynton (Assistant Professor, General Internal Medicine, UNC/NC TraCS). 🎥 The video of the panel can be found here 🎞 Lucy's slides 📃 The ASA Statement on p-values 📃 The American Statistician issue on p-values following the SSI conferen...2022-05-031h 16Casual InferenceCasual InferenceIt Depends with Sander GreenlandIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Sander Greenland, Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology and Statistics at UCLA. Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2022-04-181h 27Casual InferenceCasual InferenceThe Intersection of Industrial Engineering and Causal Inference with Toyya PujolIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Toyya Pujol, Operations Researcher at RAND Corporation. Follow along on Twitter: Toyya: @toyyapujol The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats  2022-04-051h 04Not So Standard DeviationsNot So Standard Deviations154 - Just Tweak Some ParametersRoger welcomes back Lucy D’Agostino McGowan to the show to discuss building prediction models and how they may or may not relate to causal inference.   Show Notes: Lucy D’Agostino McGowan Hundreds of AI tools have been built to catch covid. None of them helped. Support us on Patreon Roger on Twitter Hilary on Twitter List of NSSD Fellows Get the Not So Standard Deviations book Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to the podca...2022-04-041h 06Casual InferenceCasual InferenceThe Intersection of Machine Learning and Causal Inference with Maggie MakarIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Maggie Makar, Presidential postdoctoral fellow and assistant professor in Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan. Follow along on Twitter: Maggie: @Maggiemakar The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Slide link: https://bit.ly/3DnQai5 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Quinn Rose: aspiringrobot.com2022-03-1453 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceArtificial Intelligence, Personalized Medicine, and Causal Bounds with Judea PearlIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Judea Pearl, Chancellor professor of computer science and statistics at the University of California, Los Angeles. 📄 Judea's recent papers 📖 Book of Why Follow along on Twitter: Judea: @yudapearl The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Slide link: https://bit.ly/3DnQai5 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade  2022-02-2855 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceThe history of John Snow, Cholera, and Cookies with Chris Schaich | Season 3 Episode 8In this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with #EpiCookieChallenge winner, Chris Schaich about the epidemiologist John Snow. Dr. Schaich is an assistant professor at Wake Forest School of Medicine in the Hypertension and Vascular Research Center. Follow along on Twitter: Chris: @Chris_Schaich The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Slide link: https://bit.ly/3DnQai5 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade  2022-02-1448 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceAsking questions that matter, getting answers that help  In this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about their Spotify Wrapped for Casual Inference, and Ellie Murray talks about causal inference for complex data with the University of Minnesota’s epidemiology department. Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Slide link: https://bit.ly/3DnQai5 Transcript (auto-generated): https://bit.ly/3y4OskQ 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.  2021-12-051h 11Casual InferenceCasual InferenceA Casual Look at Causal Inference HistoryIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat about the history of causal inference, tracing the origins across disciplines from statistics to economics, epidemiology, and computer science, discussing contributions from Rubin, Robins, Pearl, and more! Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.2021-11-221h 12Casual InferenceCasual InferenceHanging out in the data science trough of disillusionment with Hilary ParkerIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Hilary Parker about design thinking for data analysis, the Dunning-Kruger effect, and the potential data behind baby Yoda. Follow along on Twitter: Hilary: @hspter The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.2021-11-081h 09Casual InferenceCasual InferenceMetascience with Noah HaberIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Noah Haber about metascience, causal language in the literature, and more! 🥇 Causal Inference Nobel Prize Press Release 📝 Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A systematic language evaluation 📝 What Should Researchers Expect When They Replicate Studies? A Statistical View of Replicability in Psychological Science 📝 Design principles of data analysis 📝 Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review 🔗 Reading past headlines [pa...2021-10-251h 08Casual InferenceCasual InferenceSolving Optimization Problems in Healthcare and Disney Theme Parks with Len TestaIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Len Testa, president of TouringPlans, about solving optimization problems in travel and healthcare. 📦 Lucy's R package with touringplans data Len's slide on model choices: Follow along on Twitter: Len: @LenTesta The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.2021-10-1157 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceCausal Inference and Network Science for Public Health with Ashley BuchananIn this episode Lucy D'Agostino McGowan and Ellie Murray chat with Ashley Buchanan about causal inference with a focus on networks. Dr. Buchanan is an assistant professor of Biostatistics in the Department of Pharmacy Practice at the University of Rhode Island. 🔗 Dr. Buchanan's website Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.2021-09-2759 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceA Series Recap + Coronavirus Rapid Tests DiscussionIn this episode Ellie Murray and Lucy D’Agostino McGowan do a series recap and then discuss sensitivity, specificity, and appropriate messaging in the context of coronavirus rapid tests. 📝 Evaluation of the Abbott BinaxNOW rapid antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 infection in children: Implications for screening in a school setting 📝 NY Times article: One in 5,000 🐦 Kareem Carr's tweet about omitted variable bias in randomized controlled trials 📝 Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated? 🦠 A calculator that lets you estimate COVID risk [microcovid] In the (Loc...2021-09-131h 01Epidemiology Counts from the Society for Epidemiologic ResearchEpidemiology Counts from the Society for Epidemiologic ResearchEpidemiology Counts – Episode 28 – Breakthrough COVID-19 & DeltaThe arrival of COVID-19 vaccines that are highly effective against infection and severe disease in late 2020 appeared to be the silver bullet that would end the pandemic and bring life back to the way it was in pre-pandemic times. But the emergence of the highly infectious Delta variant of the virus, coupled with large portions of the eligible public remaining unvaccinated, has dampened much of this initial hope and led to what is being called the Fourth Wave of the pandemic. The surge in infections and hospitalizations in this latest wave is primarily in the unvaccinated; however, many vaccinated persons...2021-09-091h 03Casual InferenceCasual InferenceOur Michael Jordan EpisodeIn this 23rd episode of Casual Inference Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat about fixed vs random effect, complete a statistics challenge, and talk about DAGs. 🐦 Tweet from @jtc475 about fixed vs random effects terminology 🎲 This is Statistics March Randomness Challenge 📝 Lucy, Kyra, and Ellie's paper "Quantifying Uncertainty in Infectious Disease Mechanistic Models" PeDAGogy Here are the two Bridgerton DAGs we discussed. 1. Tweet submitted by @IGMoore:  2. Tweet submitted by @AlenaSorensen Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy...2021-03-0238 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceHealth Policy with Julia RaifmanIn this episode Ellie Murray and Lucy D’Agostino McGowan chat with Julia Raifman about health policy, a recent study on unemployment insurance and food insecurity, and anti racism in academia. Dr. Raifman is an assistant professor of Health Law, Policy, and Management at Boston University. Her research focuses on how health and social policies drive population health and health disparities. 📝 Geoffrey Rose's paper Sick Individuals and Sick Populations 📝Julia’s recent paper - Association Between Receipt of Unemployment Insurance and Food Insecurity Among People Who Lost Employment During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States...2021-02-081h 05Casual InferenceCasual InferenceCelebrating 100 years with a look forwards and back with the D'AgostinosIn this episode Ellie Murray and Lucy D’Agostino McGowan chat with Ralph D’Agostino Sr. and Ralph D’Agostino Jr. about their careers in statistics, looking back at how things have developed and forward at where they see the world of statistics and epidemiology going. We’re excited to kick off the 100th year of the American Journal of Epidemiology with this episode. Ralph D’Agostino Sr. is a professor of Mathematics/Statistics, Biostatistics, and Epidemiology at Boston University. He has been the lead biostatistician for the Framingham Heart Study, a biostatistical consultant to The New England Jo...2021-01-211h 02SERious EPISERious EPI1.12. Epidemiology podcast crossoverIn honor of the Society for Epidemiologic Research 2020 Meeting, the hosts of four epidemiology podcasts came together to record the first ever “crossover event” to talk about their experiences recording our shows and what podcasting can bring to the table for the field of epidemiology. Join the hosts of Epidemiology Counts (Bryan James), SERiousEPi (Matt Fox, Hailey Banack), Casual Inference (Lucy D’Agostino McGowan), and Shiny Epi People (Lisa Bodnar) as they engage in a fun and informative (we hope!) conversation of the burgeoning field of epidemiology podcasting, emceed by Geetika Kalloo. The audio podcast will be released on some of our...2021-01-0152 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceThe Most Ambitious CrossoverIn honor of the Society for Epidemiologic Research 2020 Meeting, the hosts of four epidemiology podcasts came together to record the first ever “crossover event” to talk about their experiences recording our shows and what podcasting can bring to the table for the field of epidemiology. Join the hosts of Epidemiology Counts (Bryan James), SERiousEPi (Matt Fox, Hailey Banack), Casual Inference (Lucy D’Agostino McGowan), and Shiny Epi People (Lisa Bodnar) as they engage in a fun and informative (we hope!) conversation of the burgeoning field of epidemiology podcasting, emceed by Geetika Kalloo.2020-12-1552 minEpidemiology Counts from the Society for Epidemiologic ResearchEpidemiology Counts from the Society for Epidemiologic ResearchEpidemiology Counts – Episode 24 – “Epidemiology podcast crossover”In honor of the Society for Epidemiologic Research 2020 Meeting, the hosts of four epidemiology podcasts came together to record the first ever “crossover event” to talk about their experiences recording our shows and what podcasting can bring to the table for the field of epidemiology. Join the hosts of Epidemiology Counts (Bryan James), SERiousEPi (Matt Fox, Hailey Banack), Casual Inference (Lucy D’Agostino McGowan), and Shiny Epi People (Lisa Bodnar) as they engage in a fun and informative (we hope!) conversation of the burgeoning field of epidemiology podcasting, emceed by Geetika Kalloo. The audio podcast will be released on some of our...2020-12-1452 minChangelog Master FeedChangelog Master FeedA casual conversation concerning causal inference (Practical AI #113)Lucy D’Agostino McGowan, cohost of the Casual Inference Podcast and a professor at Wake Forest University, joins Daniel and Chris for a deep dive into causal inference. Referring to current events (e.g. misreporting of COVID-19 data in Georgia) as examples, they explore how we interact with, analyze, trust, and interpret data - addressing underlying assumptions, counterfactual frameworks, and unmeasured confounders (Chris’s next Halloween costume).2020-11-2451 minPractical AIPractical AIA casual conversation concerning causal inferenceLucy D’Agostino McGowan, cohost of the Casual Inference Podcast and a professor at Wake Forest University, joins Daniel and Chris for a deep dive into causal inference. Referring to current events (e.g. misreporting of COVID-19 data in Georgia) as examples, they explore how we interact with, analyze, trust, and interpret data - addressing underlying assumptions, counterfactual frameworks, and unmeasured confounders (Chris’s next Halloween costume).Join the discussionChangelog++ members get a bonus 2 minutes at the end of this episode and zero ads. Join today!Sponsors:Linode – Get $100 in free credit...2020-11-2451 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceHappy Anniversary to Us!Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat about ecological studies, the new Pfizer vaccine interim analysis, and more! 📈 Vanderbilt University Department of Health Policy's COVID-19 Deaths in Tennessee and Adoption of Mask Requirements (h/t Peter Rebeiro)  📈 The original masks v no masks graph 🗞 Pfizer's press release about the interim analysis for their vaccine trial 📓 Pfizer's vaccine trial protocol PeDAGogy Here is the DAG from our peDAGogy segment: Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/ou...2020-11-1354 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceWhy Everyone is Excited About Causal Inference These Days with Roger PengEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat about communicating uncertainty, how air pollution policy is determined, and whether causal inference is a fad with Dr. Roger Peng from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Roger: @rdpeng 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.  2020-10-3159 minNot So Standard DeviationsNot So Standard Deviations118 - Special Guest Lucy D’Agostino McGowanRoger welcomes Lucy D’Agostino McGowan to the podcast to discuss the challenges of scientific communication, what computer to get, and the next big thing in tech. Plus, we introduce a new segment: How the heck did this happen? Show Notes: Lucy D’Agostino McGowan Failure Modes and Effects Analysis with COVID-19 Why is Cats? by Lindsay Ellis Support us through our Patreon page Roger on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rdpeng Hilary on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hspter Get the Not So Standard Devi...2020-10-291h 17Casual InferenceCasual InferenceThinking About Schools Reopening From a Causal Perspective with Emily OsterEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan talk about the causal questions linked to schools opening during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then they have Dr. Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University, on to discuss her thoughts on and contributions to this area. 📄 Emily's Atlantic Piece Schools aren't super-spreader events 📊 COVID-19 School Response Dashboard Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Emily: @profemilyoster Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.2020-10-161h 14Casual InferenceCasual InferenceAn Ode to Generalized Linear ModelsEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan casually discuss linear versus logistic regression, prediction versus inference, generalized linear models, and more! 📄Robin Gomila's paper: "Logistic or linear? Estimating causal effects on experimental treatments on binary outcomes using regression analysis" 🐦 Robin's twitter thread about the paper Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.2020-10-0245 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceMethodological Advances in Causal Inference with Betsy OgburnEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss methodological advancement in causal inference with Dr. Elizabeth Ogburn from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. 📄 Wang & Blei's The Blessings of Multiple Causes paper 🦠 COVID-19 Collaboration Platform 📈 COVID-19 Meta-dashboard of dashboards Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Betsy: @BetsyOgburn 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.2020-09-181h 14Casual InferenceCasual InferenceCasual Inference Live from SEREllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan are live for Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER) week! Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.2020-06-2450 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceCommunity Engagement, Health Disparities, and Measure Development with Melody GoodmanEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss community engagement, health disparities, and measure development with Dr. Melody Goodman from New York University Global School of Public Health. 🐦 Jonathan Jackson's tweet on the importance of measures of dispersion 📄 Goodman's paper Reaching Consensus on Principles of Stakeholder Engagement in Research 📄 Goodman's paper Content validation of a quantitative stakeholder engagement measure 📄 Goodman's paper on Community Research Training Fellows Program Training Community Members in Public Health Research: Development and Implementation of a Community Participatory Research Pilot Project 📄 The Relationship between In-Person Voting, Consolidated Polling Locatio...2020-06-041h 59Casual InferenceCasual InferenceCOVID-19, Masks, and Designing Observational StudiesEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat about coronavirus, the evidence we have about masks, and designing observational studies. Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.2020-05-2235 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceGetting Bayesian with Frank HarrellEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss Bayesian statistics, model validation, and more, with special guest Dr. Frank Harrell from the Department of Biostatistics at Vanderbilt University. 🤷‍♀️What does it mean to be Bayesian? 🤷‍♀️How can we decide if our models are good? 📈Frank's COVID trial resource hub  📈Betsy Ogburn's COVID trial protocol hub 👨‍🏫Frank's Free Biostatistics in Biomedical Research Course 🐍Lucy's tweetorial on Type 1 error and including nonlinear terms in models Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Frank: @f2harrell 2020-04-2257 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceCoronavirus Conversations 2 | Episode 10Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss coronavirus a bit more, focusing on mask wearing, data quality, disease modeling, and more! 📈 IHME COVID-19 projections 😷 A quick DIY cloth mask how-to 😷 Ellie's TikTok on safe mask removal 🧪 Lucy's tweetorial on estimating prevalences from testing data 🤷‍♀️ Lucy's model uncertainty tweetorial  Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.2020-04-0957 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceCoronavirus ConversationsEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss coronavirus with an added segment discussing current recommendations for people taking ACE inhibitors or ARBS with Andrew South from Wake Forest School of Medicine. 👏Wash your hands to Splash Mountain Medley: 🌟 Ellie's hand washing song lyrics (to be sung twice) Twinkle twinkle little SARS How I wonder where you are Are you on my hands right now? On my face or on my brow? Twinkle twinkle little SARS How I wonder where you are 💃 Ellie on TikTok2020-03-191h 11Casual InferenceCasual InferenceCausal inference for data science with Sean TaylorEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Sean Taylor from Lyft. Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📝 Sean’s Science paper 📦 Prophet R package 📝 Book on time-varying exposures 📝 Lyft engineering blog 📝 Hormone replacement therapy overview 📝 Analyzing observational HRT data by emulating a trial 📰 Local news AJE Methods Corner  Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Sean: @SeanJTaylor 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. 👩‍🎨 Our artwork2020-02-201h 29Casual InferenceCasual InferenceAsking harder causal questions with Whitney RobinsonEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Whitney Robinson from the Departments of Epidemiology at University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📝 Jeffrey Rose article (reprint) 📝 Chandra Ford’s public health praxis paper 📝 Whitney’s paper with Tyler VanderWeele on race as a cause 📝 Miguel Hernan’s paper on well-defined interventions: Does water kill? 📝 NIH funding paper 📻 Acadames podcast 📝 Miguel Hernan’s AJE paper on selection bias without colliders 2020-02-061h 19Casual InferenceCasual InferenceInternal and External Validity with Elizabeth StuartEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Elizabeth Stuart from the Departments of Mental Health, Biostatistics, and Health Policy and Management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.  Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📝 Kern et al paper on Assessing Methods for Generalizing Experimental Impact Estimates to Target Populations 📝 Article by Sherri Rose on Liz Stuart (baby pics!) 🌐 Liz Stuart's website 📰 Local news Naomi Distelkamp won our #EpiCookieChallenge! Naomi plotted flu rates in the US We discussed Alberto Cairo's book...2020-01-231h 38Casual InferenceCasual InferenceScience Communication with Gideon Meyerowitz-KatzEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist studying at the University of Wollongong and a science communication writer for the Guardian, Observer, and more! Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📝 Gideon's post on relative versus absolute risk 🐦 Gideon's twitter account @justsaysrisks 🎙 Everything Hertz Podcast 🎙Gideon's Sensationalist Science Podcast ✍️ Gideon on Medium 📧 Email Gideon for advice on getting started in Sci Comm: gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com 👩‍🏫 PeDAGogy We discussed a paper recently published in BMJ o...2020-01-091h 23Casual InferenceCasual InferenceQuantitative Bias Analysis with Matt FoxEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Matt Fox from the Departments of Epidemiology and Global Health at Boston University. Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📄 Paper discussing a null association between smoking during pregnancy and breast cancer risk 📚 Matt's textbook on quantitative bias analysis 🔗 Bias analysis website: sites.google.com/site/biasanalysis/ 📰 Global news Wang and Blei's The Blessing of Multiple Causes Obgurn, Shpitser, and Tchetgen Tchetgen's Comment D'Amour's Comment In this week's global news segment we mentioned M-bias. Here is an example...2019-12-191h 21Casual InferenceCasual InferenceFairness in Machine Learning with Sherri RoseEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Sherri Rose from the Department of Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School. Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📄 Paper by Anna Zink and Sherri Rose: Fair Regression for Health Care Spending 📄 The Blessing of Multiple Causes 📄  Dissecting racial bias in an algorithm used to manage the health of populations 📚 Sherri's books on targeted learning 🔗 Sherri's website: drsherrirose.org🔗 Data for Black lives: d4bl.org👏 What we're is enjoying this week: baby Yoda 📰 Our local news...2019-12-051h 08Casual InferenceCasual InferenceSocializing about Social Epidemiology with Onyebuchi ArahEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Onyebuchi Arah from the Department of Epidemiology and UCLA Fielding School of Public Health about Social Epidemiology. Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode: 📄 Study in Science Advances demonstrating the funding gap in research on the community level  📄 Matt Fox’s E-value study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology 👏 What Lucy is enjoying this week: Normcore tech newsletter 📰 Our local news: American Journal of Epidemiology article on obesity & neighborhoods  Here is the DAG discussed in...2019-11-2257 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceTalking Target Trials with Miguel HernanEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan try to keep it casual in the first episode of the new Casual Inference podcast. Episode 1 features special guest Miguel Hernan from Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. Listen to learn how to improve your observational data analysis! Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Miguel: @_MiguelHernan Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode!  Causal Inference, What If: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/m...2019-11-0853 minCasual InferenceCasual InferenceKeeping it casual: the pilotEllie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan try to keep it casual in this quick teaser to introduce you to the types of things the Casual Inference podcast will include.  Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.2019-11-0108 minSuper Data Science: ML & AI Podcast with Jon KrohnSuper Data Science: ML & AI Podcast with Jon Krohn151: Women in Data Science & How to HelpIn this episode of the SuperDataScience Podcast, I chat with R enthusiast, Lucy D’Agostino McGowan. You will hear about empowering gender minorities in the field of Data Science, learn about considering the use of propensity scores when dealing with non-randomized control samples, and learn how to use best practices in conveying information to avoid information overload.If you enjoyed this episode, check out show notes, resources, and more at www.superdatascience.com/1512018-04-261h 11Not So Standard DeviationsNot So Standard DeviationsEpisode 30 - Philately and NumismatologyHilary and Roger follow up on open data and data sharing in government. They also discuss artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, and doing your taxes in R. Show notes: Lucy D’Agostino McGowan (@LucyStats) made a great translation of Hill’s criteria using XKCD comics: http://www.lucymcgowan.com/hill-for-data-scientists.html Lucy’s web page: http://www.lucymcgowan.com Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/whitehouse_files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/preparing_for_the_future_of_ai.pdf Partially Derivative White House Special – with DJ Patil, US Chief Data Scientist: http://12%20Dec%202016%20White%20House%20Special...2017-01-0557 min