Shows
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezEp. 213: Bilal Hafeez on Fed Cuts, Dollar Strength and AI Hype Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: whether the Fed will cut in 2024? What people are ignoring about China, Europe's strategic problem, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:...
2024-04-2642 min
Capital Horizons - The PodcastCapital Horizons - Bilal HafeezWhy do Western companies circumvent sanctions? What is the US policy of containing China? How is China reacting to sanctions on Russia? Will the potential Trump presidency be beneficial for the world economy? What does the market think about WW3? All this and more as Igor Yelnik and Sir Michael Fallon speak with Bilal Hafeez, CEO & Head of Research, Macro Hive. Hosts: Igor Yelnik & Sir Michael FallonGuest Speaker: Bilal HafeezChannel Creators: https://jamcreative.agencyThe information or opinions in this podcast do not constitute, or form...
2024-03-2240 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezEp. 195: Bilal Hafeez on 2023 Surprises, Getting AI Right, and Best TV of 2023Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: the biggest surprises of 2023, why covering oil and China is important, understanding the drivers of US growth, and much more. Follow us here for more a...
2023-12-2250 min
Behind the Markets PodcastBehind the Markets Podcast: Bilal HafeezShow from 5/5/23
Join Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel as they discuss the current state of the labor market; the concerning trend of rising unemployment claims and a cooling labor landscape. Bilal Hafeez shares his contrasting thoughts on the actions the Fed should take. The discussion also touches on the superior positioning of European banks compared to US banks. Bilal talks about booming investments in A.I. and how big tech companies will benefit from this trend. Listen now to gain insights into inflation, the Fed's response, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding American and Chinese A.I.
Guest:
Bilal Hafeez is...
2023-05-0252 min
Forward GuidancePrivate Markets To Implode As Fed Hikes to 7% | Bilal HafeezBilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto.--To get 40% off on an...
2022-12-221h 12
Market MakerCAREER INSIGHT: 'Money Is Everything, Money Is Nothing' with Bilal HafeezIn this career insight episode, I am joined by Bilal Hafeez who is the CEO, Head of Research and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JP Morgan,Deutsche Bank and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.To mark his 25th year in the industry, Bilal has written an article on the 25 lessons learned from 25 years in finance, covering invaluable lessons on finance, business and life.In this conversation, we touch on the following 5 lessons:Money...
2022-11-0948 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comAL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal HafeezBilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the...
2022-08-031h 09
Top Traders UnpluggedAL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal HafeezBilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how...
2022-08-031h 09
On the MicHafeez Bilal Hafeez talks about Pakistani Weddings, Dance Practices & Choreography | On the Mic #46Hafeez Bilal Hafeez is not just one of the best dancers of Pakistan, he's also one swell guy who knows how to tell a story and tell it funny. He talks On the Mic of how essentially his pursuit of the medium of dance as a professional came about through none other than a project during his time in LSE! Yes, we guess all those SME projects in LSE paid off. Hafeez entertains with several anecdotes of his time as a professional dancer as well as announcing that he is opening his own dance studio in DHA Phase 8! You...
2022-05-1446 min
Resolve Riffs Investment PodcastReSolve Riffs with Bilal Hafeez of Macro Hive on the Paradigm Shift in Global MarketsThis week we had the pleasure of welcoming Bilal Hafeez, founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, and the host of the Macro Hive Conversations podcast. We had a broad global macro conversation that included: Bilal’s journey in the finance industry through North America, Asia and back to Europe Retiring from corporate life and founding a ‘hive-mind’ research firm A top-down approach with an eye for structural trends and a cyclical view Interest rates as the main concern for both retail and institutional clients Central Banking dichotomy – austere in developing nations, creative across the G7 The US D...
2022-03-291h 41
Market MakerCareer Insight: Reality of working in Investment Banking with Bilal Hafeez the founder of Macro HiveIn this episode, I speak to Bilal Hafeez who is the founder and CEO of Macro Hive. Before starting his own research firm in 2019, Bilal was the Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.Although Bilal has had phenomenal success in his career to date there have been many experiences and challenges that have shaped that journey. Coming from a working-class background in Oxford and not having any friends or family working in the professional world, it was not always clear o...
2022-03-0225 minForward GuidanceWhy Inflation Will Dissipate | Bilal HafeezBilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil.Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto. Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_--
2022-02-201h 24
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBilal Hafeez on Inflation, Crypto and Investment LessonsOn this special episode, we turn the tables and Bilal becomes the guest as Andrew Simon, our COO of Macro Hive and business partner, does the interviewing this time. Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive. Prior to this, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019. Before that Bilal held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at J.P. Morgan...
2021-12-101h 42
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez[BONUS] Professor Justin Stebbing On COVID OmicronOmicron, the name of the new Covid-19 variant that has recently emerged, caused panic across the world and a selloff in risk on Friday. Following an influx of questions from The Hive, we held an urgent webinar to discuss the strain and its potential impacts on financial markets. Professor Justin Stebbing of the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial College London joined us to provide his expert opinion. Justin has published in The Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and in Foreign Affairs on China's global role in vaccine distribution. ...
2021-12-0155 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBoris Vladimirov on Reverse Goldilocks, Central Bank Credibility, Market WinnersBoris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss: What is reverse goldilocks? Parallels and differences to 1970s stagflation The challenge of the current regime How will policymakers respond? What gives central...
2021-10-1541 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMarc Rubinstein on Understanding Banks, the Crypto Challenge and Private EquityMarc is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Before this, Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. This was after he spent time on the sell-side working for Barclays Investment Bank (BZW), Schroders and then Credit Suisse, where he was head of the European banks research team. In this podcast we discuss: How to predict financial crises How are financials different from other companies What do banks price-to-bank ratios tell us? Can banks rebrand themselves as fintech? What are the ke...
2021-10-0837 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAnas Alhajji On the Energy Outlook, Climate Change and Arctic OilThis episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Dr. Anas Alhajji is a leading energy markets expert, and advises governments, companies, and financial institutions on energy markets. He focuses on oil and gas market outlook, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on the supply and demand of energy. He is the Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, and was previously the Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management. He is also a contributing editor for top industry publication: World Oil. Before moving to industry, Anas taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado...
2021-10-0158 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezRichard Muirhead On VC Investing, Picking Winners and Web 3.0Richard is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Fabric Ventures – a VC fund adapting the early, technical, and patient approach of venture capital to investing in Web 3.0 and decentralised data networks. Fabric invested in the likes of Polkadot, Ocean Protocol, Orchid, Blockstack, zeppelin_os, and Keep, among others. Richard combines a pedigree in open source, developer-oriented tools, and early-stage venture investing with blockchain focus since 2013, and has invested in Pantera Venture Fund, Bitstamp, Bitrise, Tray.io, Transferwise, and Citymapper. Richard was previously a 3x software entrepreneur, building/ scaling Automic (CA), Tideway (BMC), and Orchestream (Oracle) – reaching a cumulative market cap...
2021-09-241h 24
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDavid Dredge On Defining Risk, Profiting from Extreme Moves, and ConvexityDavid has over 30 years' experience of managing risk across global markets. David is the CIO of Singapore-based Convex strategies - which focuses on risk management including protecting against dislocations in asset markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, he served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust and Bank of America. David holds an MBA from University of California, Berkeley. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). In...
2021-09-171h 11
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezTodd Edgar On Managing Money, China and Advice from Paul Tudor JonesTodd Edgar has over 28 years' experience in financial markets. He has spent the last 2 years as CIO of Atreaus Family, a family office, allocating capital to equities, rates, commodities, FX, Crypto and real estate. Prior to that, he spent 9 years as Founder of Atreaus Capital, a global macro hedge fund with a peak AUM of over $3bn. He also served as Global Head of Macro Proprietary at Barclays Capital and before that as Global Head of the Commodities and FX Proprietary Trading at JPMorgan. Todd has also been a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corp. He graduated from the...
2021-09-1047 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDavid Woo On Persistence Of COVID, Stagflation, and Political TaboosDavid is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank's views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss: Why news media has become more politicised The impact of globalization on inequality What explains countries with high COVID...
2021-09-031h 02
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezNikhil Shamapant On Ethereum to $150,000, Triple Halving and NFTsNikhil recently published an influential investment report titled 'Ethereum, The Triple Halving', and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. Outside of markets, Nikhil is an incoming medical resident at University of Colorado internal medicine. Nikhil completed his undergraduate degree at Rice University where he studied Philosophy and Cognitive Science. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss: Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum Consensus algorithms: proof-of-work vs proof-of stake The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin The triple halving for Ethereum Impact of...
2021-08-271h 11
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezSaeed Amen On Trading Models, Alternative Data And Python [Replay]In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of "Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today" and is the coauthor of "The Book of Alternative Data", which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: 1. Types of trading...
2021-08-2035 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAlberto Gallo on China Risks, Corporate Inequality and Accelerated HistoryAlberto is Head of Global Credit strategies and Portfolio Manager of the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities fund, a global strategy investing in bonds, credit and equities. Prior to Algebris, Alberto was Managing Director and Head of Global Macro Credit Research at RBS (2011-2016). His team was top ranked in Institutional Investor's All-Europe Fixed Income survey for Investment Grade, High Yield Research and Fixed Income Strategy, for four years running. Previously, Alberto was a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York (2007-2011) and previously he was at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch in London (2004-2007), where he co-authored some...
2021-08-0658 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAnna Raytcheva on Trading Regime Changes, Reflation and CryptoThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as...
2021-07-3040 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezRoger Garside On China Fragility, Coup Risks, and US PolicyRoger is a former diplomat, development banker, and capital market development advisor, who twice served in the British Embassy in Beijing, and is the author of the highly acclaimed Coming Alive: China After Mao, which explained how Deng Xiaoping won the struggle to succeed Chairman Mao Zedong and what he would do with his power. He has recently published a provocative new book China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. In the podcast, we talk about: Why China is outwardly strong and inwardly weak The debt and efficiency problems of the state sector The role of corruption The...
2021-07-2359 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezRoshun Patel on Bitcoin, Crypto Lending and Futures Trading Cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto How lending works in bitcoin and crypto Futures and interest rates on bitcoin Dynamics of the May bitcoin correction Divergence between US and China trading On-chain features and smart contracts Yield farming Issues around Tether Types of investors in crypto Call over-writing strategies Books that influenced Roshun: The Beginning of Infinity (Deutsch), The Selfish Gene (Dawkins), Sapiens (Harari), The Sovereign Individual (Davidson), The Energy World Is Flat (Lacalle and Parrila), and The Three-Body Problem (Liu)
2021-07-1655 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezCharley Ellis on Active Investors Underperformance, Index Investing and CharacterDr. Charles D. Ellis is the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates, an international consultancy where he advised large institutional investors, foundations, and government organizations in more than 130 financial markets across the globe. He taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and at Harvard Business School. He sat on the Board of Directors of The Vanguard Group. In addition, Charley was a successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university's investment committee with David Swensen. He is the author of a number of books including Winning the Loser's Game, which has recently...
2021-07-0957 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezChristian Angermayer on Exponential Growth, Revolutionising Healthcare and Overcoming FearChristian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about: What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur The positive history of psychedelics The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health Classifying ageing as a disease Breakthroughs in longevity medicine Why healthcare systems are so costly How money printing is reshaping the economy The transition from linear growth to exponential...
2021-07-021h 06
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezFormer Deutsche Bank Chair/CEO Josef Ackermann On Running a Bank and the Future of BankingThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Josef Ackermann is the former chairman of the management board and the group executive committee at Deutsche Bank. Ackermann joined Deutsche Bank's board of managing directors in 1996, where he was responsible for the investment banking division. He is also former chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus. Ackermann studied economics and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his doctorate. In the podcast, we talk about: Managing Deutsche Bank around the global financial crisis Banker compensation and bonuses Why European...
2021-06-2553 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJohn Butler on Stagflation, Gold and BitcoinJohn Butler has 25 years' experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world's largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book 'The Golden Revolution'. In the podcast, we talk about: Why stagflation is here The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans The moral hazard of...
2021-06-1856 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezCharles Goodhart on Money Printing, Inflation and AgeingThis episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England's new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart's law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, 'Money, Information and Uncertainty', 'The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis' (2009) and most recently 'The Great...
2021-06-1153 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Adrian Williams on Everything You Wanted to Know About SleepDr. Adrian Williams is the UK's first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he developed the Sleep Centre at Guy's and St. Thomas' now the most active in the UK, and continues in the full-time practice of Sleep Medicine. In addition, Professor...
2021-06-041h 00
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezFormer UK Chancellor Sajid Javid On Inflation, Climate Change and Post-Brexit BritainThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four 'Great Offices Of State' in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about: How has...
2021-05-2827 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezThemos Fiotakis on Mispriced US Stimulus, Inflation Spikes and Neglected EMThemos is the Head of Research at the macro hedge fund, Glen Point Capital. His previous roles included being Head of Fundamental Strategy at UBS and Head of EM FX Strategy at Goldman Sachs. In the podcast, we talk about: How investors are not understanding the impact of the US stimulus Will price increases be transitory? How healthy is the US labour market? Important shifts in China policy How to play the Euro-area recovery Investors are missing key EM trends Favourite EM markets Books that influenced Themos: Economics in Perspective (Galbraith) and A Theory of Justice (Rawls)
2021-05-2129 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDominique Dwor-Frecaut on US Labour Supply, Inflation and Timing the Bond Sell-OffDominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she's so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she's worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about: The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021 The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID Can inflation move higher? How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy The impact of more ac...
2021-05-1444 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezPhil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in PlayPhil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about: COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023. Fed will be in play sooner than expected. Goods sector could see 'recession' in 2021 on supply constraints. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling. EM local markets appear mispriced. Climate change policies...
2021-05-0747 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezWolfgang Münchau on Germany's Political Risks, Fiscal Stimulus and Euro InstabilityThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Wolfgang Münchau is co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. He was a Financial Times columnist from 2003 until 2020 and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland. He is the author of several books, including Meltdown Years. In this podcast, we discuss: The unpopularity of Germany's governing party, the CDU and its new leader Laschet. Laschet's support for the coal industry. The popularity of sister party CSU's leader Söder and his new economy focus. The possibility of a CDU and CSU split. Why are Greens so popular in Ge...
2021-04-301h 00
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJeff Snider on Deflation, Central Bank Failure, and Understanding MoneyThis episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss: Do central banks believe in QE? Why QE didn't generate inflation after GFC. What is money and can central banks control it? The importance of banks. What caused the 1970s inflation. The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system. Why fiscal stimulus won't work. The problem with market fragility and illiquidity. Central banks care about...
2021-04-2348 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBoris Vladimirov on Inflation Permanence, European Banks and BRICS OutlookThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss: Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending? The best Europe trade. Which yields matter for EM. How important is China's deleveraging goals? Where next for Chinese currency and bonds? Outlook for...
2021-04-161h 03
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBobby Vedral on Taxing Big Tech, Europe's Edge, and Biden's China PolicyThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. In this podcast, we discuss: Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue. The unionization drive in the US. A new global corporate tax accord. The bullish case for Europe. Germany in a post-Merkel world. Biden's...
2021-04-0930 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDavid Riley On US Debt Sustainability, the Reflation Trade and Corporate DefaultsDavid Riley is Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management – a USD70bn fixed income fund. Before Bluebay, David was global head of Fitch's Sovereign and Supranational Group, responsible for more than 130 ratings of the world's largest fixed-income issuers. Prior to Fitch, David was at HM Treasury where he advised on international economic and debt issues, including representing the UK at international debt restructuring negotiations at the Paris Club of Official Creditors. In this podcast, we discuss: How sustainable are US and developed market debt? Will the reflation trade continue for 2021? Peak pessimism on Euro-area. Dollar tr...
2021-04-0143 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBenn Eifert On Retail Options Boom, Over-Complex Derivatives, and Managing Tail RiskBenn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss: How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis. The centrality of listed derivatives. Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important. How complexity of strategies doesn't give you an...
2021-03-2651 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMarco Monroy On Carbon Taxes, ESG Investing and MaradonaMarco is Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group, which includes a private equity and green infrastructure fund, and a multinational firm specializing in integrated sustainability and climate change services that facilitate a transition towards a low carbon economy. Prior to that, he worked as an advisor on climate change issues to the Japanese government. In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr. Monroy one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow. In this podcast, we discuss: Will climate change policies work? The state-of-play in cap and trade and carbon taxes. The importance of energy efficiency incentives. Will the Biden...
2021-03-191h 04
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezZac Prince on Earning Interest on Bitcoin, and the Future of Crypto FinanceZac is the CEO and Founder of BlockFi – a leading wealth management firm for crypto investors. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector, and Zibby, an online consumer lender. In this podcast, we discuss: The three use case of crypto – store of value, new commerce, and new payments system. Stablecoins are underappreciated. What is decentralized finance (defi). How you can earn interest on crypto assets. How to manage crypto lending books. Breakdown of market players. How to hedge your portfolio. Regulatory trends in cryp...
2021-03-1543 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJames Aitken On Stock Vigilantes, Yield Curve Control and Inflation PathsThis episode is sponsored by Masterworks. James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a research boutique for institutional investors which he started in 2009. Before that, James worked for UBS, AIG, JPMorgan and Macqaurie. In this podcast, we discuss: The real meaning of macro investing. The market has right tails as well as left tails. How to view recent rates market volatility. Why would Fed do yield curve control? Biden and the finance sector. How to hedge your portfolio. The importance of stock vigilantes. The different channels of inflation. The unexpected impact of...
2021-03-051h 26
The Market HuddleBuzzing with Macro Hive (guests: Bilal Hafeez, Kuppy)In episode #121, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Macro Hive founder Bilal Hafeez to the show. to talk to us about what he is seeing in the markets. Then Kuppy is back for our monthly Kuppy’s Corner.
http://markethuddle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/MH121.mp3
2021-03-052h 33
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezPeter Tertzakian on Energy Transitions, Electric Vehicles and Big OilPeter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss: The continuing reliance of...
2021-02-2640 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezCiamac Moallemi On Quant Investing, Machine Learning and Trading StylesThis episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss: Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia. Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text). The pros and cons of using linear regressions. The advantages of ma...
2021-02-1954 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJay Pelosky on the Coming Boom, Mega-Tech Weakness and Big GovernmentJay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss: The implications of a tri-polar world. The biggest boom is underway.. Which asset classes will perform in this new regime. The problem with a 60:40 portfolio. How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform. Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber. The Biden revolution that everyone is missing. Why rising rates won't hurt stocks. Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY). How non-US and EM (EMQQ...
2021-02-111h 02
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezChristian Hille on Exponential Growth, Avoiding Low Returns, and Errors in Risk ManagementChristian Hille is the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell'sche Bank (FCB) in Germany. FCB was founded in 1774 and is one of the oldest private banks in Germany. Before FCB, Christian was Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions at DWS- Deutsche Bank's asset management arm, where he was responsible for EUR100bn in assets. In this podcast, we discuss: Living in exponential times The dramatic change in investment efficient frontiers Why expected investment returns could be half compared to recent decades How investors will respond to low growth The best way to think about r...
2021-02-051h 06
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the DollarJon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss: How to think about the Fed's new framework. The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener! Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time. Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength. How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade. Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates. Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated. Are equities expensive? Wi...
2021-01-2939 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBarry Eichengreen on Dollar Dominance, Crypto Hype, and Reforming International FinanceThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss: Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic. Have we reached peak political polarization? Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers? Could the...
2021-01-2250 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezEli Dourado on the Key Tech Breakthroughs For the 2020sEli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss: Why we haven't a replacement for Concorde (yet) How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer The problem of energy storage and renewables Breakthroughs in geothermal energy The future of transportation SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and 'escaping...
2021-01-1543 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They're a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed: Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY) Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY) Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK) Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan) Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles) Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London) Buying pound sterling (G...
2021-01-0840 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMichael Auerbach On Launching A Cannabis SPAC With Jay-Z Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss: Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector The bullish case for the California cannabis market Why Canada's legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade i...
2020-12-2245 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAshley Lenihan On The Politics Of Cross-Border M&A, CFIUS And Sensitive SectorsDr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of 'Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A'. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic's Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss: Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals Evolution of US policy on foreign investment...
2020-12-1856 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJim Leitner On Growth vs Value, Digital Options And BitcoinThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. One of our most popular guests, legendary Jim Leitner, returns on this episode. He gives his take on the big picture themes of the day, how best to implement trades and much more, specifically we discuss: Why the rotation trade from growth to value may not work The importance of looking at the structural trends in undervalued sectors Why today's tech boom is different from the dot-com mania The problem with 60:40 portfolios. The importance of real estate investments How low bond yields change how to value equities...
2020-12-111h 13
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Kevin Dowd On The Problem With MMT, Banking's Lack Of Capital And Free MarketsIn this show, I talk with Professor Kevin Dowd. He is professor of finance and economics at Durham University and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He has written extensively on the history and theory of free banking, central banking, financial regulation, and monetary systems. His books include Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability, Laissez‐Faire Banking and Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. In this podcast we discuss: Was government intervention in 2020 the right thing to do? The capital problems of the banking and insurance sectors Why free ba...
2020-12-0450 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMickey Down And Konrad Kay On Their New HBO Finance Show IndustryThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. I'm a big fan of the new HBO show Industry. It follows a group of young graduates competing for permanent positions at fictional investment bank, Pierpoint & Co. It's the most authentic depiction of a trading floor that I have seen on a TV show, so I had to get the creators of the show, Mickey Down and Konrad Kay, on to my podcast show. In this podcast we discuss: Their backgrounds working at investment banks Where they filmed the trading floor Why they avoided storylines like insider t...
2020-11-3051 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Yaneer Bar-Yam On Ending COVID, Vaccine Complacency And Business ResponsibilityThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman's Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security...
2020-11-2751 min
Macro Musings with David BeckworthBilal Hafeez on Inflation, Innovation, and Economic Recovery after COVID-19Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Founder of Macro Hive and previously worked at JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Nomura. Bilal joins Macro Musings to discuss recent economic developments and the outlook for inflation after the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, Bilal and David discuss the prospects for a K-shaped US recovery, COVID-19's impact on the Eurozone and the UK, how the launch of the EU's recovery fund has fared, and how the pandemic has impacted the outlook for the services sector, inflation, and the US dollar. Transcript for the episode can be found here.
2020-11-2354 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDirk Willer On Emerging Markets Rallying, EM Inflation And Latam ChallengesThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Dr. Dirk Willer. He's a Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Fixed Income Strategy at Citigroup in NY. His research covers global emerging markets for FX, local rates, and credit. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the top team in the 2019 institutional investor survey for emerging markets strategy in FX and rates. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and at Swiss Bank as Russia strategist. He's also recently...
2020-11-2157 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Justin Stebbing On Vaccine Breakthroughs And Herd-Immunity By SummerThis episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. I had him as a guest in July when he argued that we could see a COVID vaccine around US election time. He was right and so I wanted to get his latest views. For background, Justin is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. Earlier this year, he published in the Lancet new research on using AI...
2020-11-1237 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezGary Gerstle On Trump Not Conceding, Democrat Failures And The Upcoming Test Of The US Political SystemThe US election did not see the Democrat wave that many had expected, so I have US Presidential history expert of Cambridge University, Gary Gerstle, return to our podcast show. He gives his take on all things US elections and beyond. In this podcast we discuss: The parallel Presidencies of 1876 The current risks of unrest if the results are not certified soon What pollsters missed Were the Democrats too left or not left enough? How will Biden manage the left and a Republican Senate ahead of 2022 midterms The return of state rights over central government How a divided...
2020-11-0759 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMichael Melvin On Quant Strategies In Currencies, Impact Of QE And Machine LearningMichael was Managing Director and Senior Research Advisor in Multi-Asset Strategies at BlackRock. Prior to that he was head of Currency and Fixed Income Research in the Global Market Strategies Group at BlackRock and Barclays Global Investors. Michael is currently Executive Director of the Master of Finance program and also serves as Executive Director of the Pacific Center for Asset Management at UC San Diego. He has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In this podcast we discuss: The difference between quantitative and fundamental investing...
2020-10-301h 01
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJohn Kay On Smaller Government And Business Failure, And Why Greed Is DeadJohn Kay is one of the UK's leading economists. His books on the tax system, corporate strategy and banking have been widely praised. He helped establish the Institute of Fiscal Studies, is a fellow at St. Johns College Oxford, and was the first dean of Oxford's Saïd Business School. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of science for policymakers and why they do not use it more The problem with the focus on short-term earnings Why people are pro-social rather than individualistic Why the 1970s failed and later why neo-liberalism failed Why productivity could be under-estimated T...
2020-10-2144 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezGary Gerstle On Trump Authoritarianism, Biden's Challenges, And PolarisationGary is Paul Mellon Professor of American History at Cambridge University. Before that, he was at Vanderbilt University where he was James G. Stahlman Professor of American History. He is a social and political historian of the twentieth century, with substantial interests in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He got his PhD from Harvard University. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. In this podcast we discuss: How Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy How Biden could continue Trump's protectionist policies US climate-change related immigration challenges Historic parallels of protectionism and anti-immigration How Trump's...
2020-10-1749 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezCorey Hoffstein On How The Fed, Passive Investors And HFT Create Liquidity CascadesCorey recently wrote an excellent piece on market liquidity and I had to have him as a guest. For background, he is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, a quantitative tactical asset management firm. At Newfound, he is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. He holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. In this podcast we discuss: How central banks have pushed investors up the risk curve How central banks have introduced moral hazard to investors The importance of passive investing...
2020-10-131h 04
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezHelen Thompson On Brexit Deals, Boris Leadership And Scottish IndependenceHelen is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University. She has been at Cambridge since 1994, and is at present, Deputy Head of the School of the Humanities and Social Sciences. She is a regular panelist on the excellent podcast show Talking Politics. She has recently been focusing on the political economy of oil, Brexit and the euro zone crisis. In this podcast we discuss: The current state-of-play in Brexit talks How state aid issues have become more importance since COVID The purpose and implications of the Internal Market Bill Why the EU wants a deal Could Boris Johnson fa...
2020-10-0958 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezVitor Constancio On ECB Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy Limits And Europe RisksVitor was the Vice President of the ECB until a few years ago. And before that held numerous high-profile roles including being Portugal's finance minister, the central bank governor of Portugal and negotiating the entry of Portugal into the EEC – the forerunner to the EU. Vitor is currently President of the Council of ISEG at the University of Lisbon and a Professor at the Navarra University in Madrid.. In this podcast we discuss: The evolution of monetary policy since the 1970s Is there a limit to the size of central bank's balance sheet? How low inflation accelerated ECB QE...
2020-10-021h 01
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezCharlie McElligott On Everything Duration, Secular Growth Trades And US ElectionsCharlie McElligott is the leading experts on all things positioning, flow, sentiment and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years' experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the impact of low real yields and "everything duration" trade How momentum and secular growth (tech) trades have converged Will value trades ever work? What indicators...
2020-09-251h 08
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMichael Pettis On China Exporting Of Debt, Class War And Role Of Chinese Yuan Michael Pettis is someone who I have followed closely over my career and he is one of the most widely followed China experts in the investor community. He is currently based in Beijing and is Professor of Finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University and is the co-author of the recently published book "Trade Wars Are Class Wars". In this podcast we discuss: How economists don't understand debt Understanding when high savings rates work for countries How advanced economies investment needs changed since 1970s How trade surplus countries like China and Germany suppress the household wages a...
2020-09-1852 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezLyn Alden On Tesla, Finding Quality Stocks And The Impact Of High DebtI'm always on the lookout for podcast guests with unconventional backgrounds, and on this episode, we have one such guest, Lyn Alden. Lyn has an academic background in engineering and currently works at an aviation simulation facility. But on top of her day job, she has developed a widely followed framework for investing in markets. Her approach is value with a global macro overlay and she's been doing this research for over fifteen years. I learnt a lot in our conversation, and I'm sure you will too. In this podcast we discuss: The differences between today's tech boom...
2020-09-1136 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Laura Veldkamp On How the COVID Shock Will Lower Growth For DecadesIn this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve's 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and a co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She's a frequent consultant for the New York and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks. She is also the author...
2020-09-0441 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDavid Beckworth On The Problems With The Fed And How To Fix ItIn this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy, and he has advised congressional staffers on policy. In this podcast we discuss: 1. What did the Fed do right and wrong in its COVID response 2. How the Fed i...
2020-08-2844 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezShahraab Ahmad On New York Real Estate, Corporate Fraud And SPACsIn this episode, I talk with Shahraab Ahmad. Shahraab was previously the Chief Investment Officer of the credit fund Decca Capital. Prior to launching the fund in 2015, he managed the Hutchin Hill Liquid Credit Strategy (2008-2013). From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Sailfish Capital, where he traded global relative value within credit, and prior to that, he was Co-Head of the HY Credit Trading Group at J.P. Morgan (1999-2004). In this podcast we discuss: The early years of CDS trading Transitioning from the sell-side to hedge funds How credit markets are less efficient today than in...
2020-08-2150 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezStephen Roach On The Dollar's Coming 35% DeclineIn this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He's currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan.". He's an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China". In this podcast, we discuss: How poor public health investment...
2020-08-1438 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezGovernor Dr Reza Baqir On Pakistan's FX Reforms, Inflation Fight And Crisis ManagementIn this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative from 2017 to 2019. He has also held positions as IMF Mission Chief for Romania and Bulgaria, Division Chief of the IMF's Debt Policy Division, and Head of the...
2020-08-101h 03
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJohn Llewellyn On The Challenge Of Returning To Pre-COVID Output, MMT And Climate ChangeIn this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss: Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution Why haven't real wages risen? Ar...
2020-08-0446 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezEdward Misrahi On Decluttering Your Investment Process, EM Crises, And Current RisksIn this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discuss: The 1994 Mexico crisis and learning how to buy distressed assets The 1997-1998 Asia/Russia/LTCM crisis and the importance of correlations The problem with hedging and importance of thinking of g...
2020-07-3146 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Justin Stebbing On Expecting A COVID Vaccine Before The US ElectionIn this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19. In this podcast we discuss: Current vaccine trials Absence of CO...
2020-07-2433 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezSamm Sacks On The US-China Data War, TikTok And EU Data SovereigntyIn this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before Congress on data security issues between the US and China. In this podcast we discuss: Why data flows matter Does the China government have access to all data in China How Chinese companies push back...
2020-07-1726 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezRaghuram Rajan On Why MMT, Authoritarianism And Bailouts Won't WorkThis episode is sponsored by SGX – the largest Asian FX exchange. In this episode, I talk with Raghuram Rajan. He is currently Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. Before that, he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the IMF. He's the author of several books – most recently, the excellent "The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets are leaving Communities Behind" in 2019. In this podcast we discuss: The sources of economic weakness around COVID The 5 step...
2020-07-1035 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezChris Crowe On Bond Yields Moving Higher On Safe Assets SupplyIn this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world's leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss: Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades The role of safe assets in this downtrend Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds Whether central banks have been captured by...
2020-07-0240 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezSaeed Amen On Trading Models, Alternative Data And PythonIn this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of "Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today" and is the coauthor of "The Book of Alternative Data", which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: Types of trading models...
2020-06-2635 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezLord Mervyn King On The Wrong Use Of Monetary Policy In A Radically Uncertain WorldIn this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He's written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay "Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers". Here's what we talk about: Defining uncertainty - difference between radical uncertainty and black swans Use of narratives to understand uncertainty Importance of resilience and preparedness Why...
2020-06-1926 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezDominique Dwor-Frecaut On The V-Shaped Recovery And Return Of InflationIn this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She's an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She's also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why a V-shaped recovery is likely 2. The panic pandemic 3. How productivity could jump after COVID 4. What could see inflation rise 5. How income inequality is distorting the economy 6. The coming backlash against monopolies 7. Why expansion of central bank balance sheets is not a problem 8. China's new assertiveness
2020-06-1234 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezProfessor Alex Edmans on How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose And ProfitIn this episode, I talk with Professor Alex Edmans from the London Business School. He's one of the world's leading academics on company purpose, social value and profits. In fact, he's just come out with a book on the subject called "Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit". We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Is a company's sole purpose to deliver profits? 2. How markets do not correctly price in social value in the short-term 3. The problem with restrictions on executive pay 4. Could hedge fund activism be helpful? 5. How...
2020-06-0549 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezEmiel Van Den Heiligenberg On Leaning Against The RallyIn this episode, I talk with Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg. He is the Head of Asset Allocation at one the world's largest asset managers, Legal and General. His fund is one of the fastest growing multi-asset funds and has been a top quartile performer over the last five years. In his own word, Emiel replaced rowing with French Fries, but has continued to instill the teamwork from his rowing team into his investment team. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why markets have recently rallied 2. The earnings challenge for equities and his preference for credit
2020-05-2942 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAlfonso Prat-Gay On How To Save Emerging CountriesIn this episode, I talk with Alfonso Prat-Gay. He was Governor of the central bank of Argentina from 2002 to 2004 and later Argentina's Finance Minister between 2015-2016. I had the pleasure of working under Alfonso during my J.P Morgan days in the late 1990s, and I hold him up to be one of my most influential mentors. We also have a scoop about Alfonso and the Bank of England. On the podcast, we cover a very wide range of topics including: 1. The pre-COVID global trends from the US's incorrect policy mix to slowing Chinese growth
2020-05-2258 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJuliette Declercq On Why Equities Are Not OvervaluedIn this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She's a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis 2. Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation 3. Not putting too much weight on weak employment data 4. Why Euro-area break-up trades are not attractive 5. Her view on the dollar and euro 6. The prospects...
2020-05-1528 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezBobby Vedral On Euro Area Tensions, Brexit And US ElectionsIn this episode, I talk politics and markets with Bobby Vedral. He's a top macro and political analyst who runs Macro Eagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council, which focuses on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs, where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The structural consequences of the COVID crisis 2. What the stress points are for the Euro-area and which countries are at the center of tensions 3. How the latest German constitutional court...
2020-05-0841 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezMartin Wolf On The Scale Of The COVID Crisis, Future Debt Problems And US IsolationismIn this episode, I have a wide-ranging conversation with the FT's Chief Economics Commentator, Martin Wolf. He brings a depth to any topic that is often lacking anywhere else. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The parallels of the COVID crisis with past crises such as the ones seen in the 1970s 2. The uniqueness of this crisis 3. How well policymakers have done so far 4. The role of international organisations and US hegemony 5. The challenge for EM countries 6. How China will be viewed after this crisis 7. What tensions will emerge in the EU
2020-05-011h 08
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAlex Gurevich On The Eternal Appeal Of Bonds, Fed's Path To Zero And The Europe Bull CaseIn this episode, I have a conversation with the super-smart and provocative thinker and investor, Alex Gurevich. In our wide-ranging chat, we discuss recent lessons learned, views on markets and risks to look out for. Specifically: 1. How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style. 2. How every crisis delivers something you've never seen before 3. Why crisis moments are when you should take most risk. 4. Why bonds can still be attractive even when yields are low 5. How keeping exposure to equities is still wise even if more declines are expected 6...
2020-04-2331 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJim Leitner On The Dollar, Equities And The Economy Of Bits And ThingsIn this episode, I have a conversation with one of the top macro investors that I've come across, Jim Leitner. He has an impressive track-record, but more importantly, is very thoughtful and can go from talking about the nuts and bolts of options trading to how political regimes change. In the podcast, we talk about: How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style Whether options are over-priced The path of the dollar Which companies and sectors will succeed in the COVID world Which EM markets are most attractive How to play China most effectively...
2020-04-1750 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezPhil Suttle On V-Shaped Recoveries, Inflation And Euro Break-Up RisksIn this episode, I have a conversation with one of my favourite global economists, Phil Suttle. He's got the credentials having worked at J.P. Morgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor, but it's his analysis that stands out. In the podcast, we talk about: (1) How to forecast growth when economies lock-down. (2) Whether the policy responses so far will make a difference and how Asia is behaving differently. (3) The chances of a second-half recovery. (4) How the world will look after COVID. (5) How inflation could finally arise. (6...
2020-04-1041 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezJohn Butler On Why Gold Could Go To $5,000In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the leading experts on gold, John Butler. He has spent 25 years in the financial industry, worked at some of the top banks and has even written a book on gold (The Golden Revolution). In the podcast, we talk about: Valuation frameworks for gold The relationship between oil and real interest rates with gold The insurance properties of gold How gold behaves around regime changes in political and monetary systems Comparisons between gold and bitcoin Projections for gold in the next few years. It's a great discussion, so...
2020-04-0339 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezAn Original Take On The COVID Crisis – Time As A SymptomIn this episode, we're lucky to have a conversation with one of the most original macro thinkers, the Macro Dilettante. He prefers not to disclose his name, but I've known him for years and is a super experienced market pro having worked at asset managers, in alternative investments and at pension funds. Back in January, he warned me about the global consequences of COVID and I mistakenly didn't heed his advice until much later. During our conversation, we talk about the importance of understanding time as well prices in markets, the significance of pension funds in this...
2020-03-2744 min
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal HafeezGeorge Goncalves On Whether The Fed Can Save MarketsWith the country in lockdown, we've decided to launch a podcast show to better reach our audience. In our inaugural episode, I speak to George Goncalves about the recent volatility in markets, what's going in dollar cash markets, what the Fed can do and whether we could enter a depression. I also review some of the pieces we've put out on Macro Hive over the past week including ones on tracking the COVID virus, the odds of a US recession, the importance of real yields and the possibility of stagflation. Please subscribe to the show...
2020-03-2028 min