Shows
Conference of Consulting ActuariesLeadership Interview 31- Mary Pat CampbellIn this edition of the Leadership Interview Series, CCA Past
President Michael Clark interviews Mary Pat Campbell, Vice President, Insurance Research at Conning where she provides research around a number of areas related to the life insurance industry. Mary Pat discusses her career journey, love for Sumo wrestling, and her Substack webpage.2025-01-1558 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMovember 2024: My Motivations and the Movember MovementAn audio introduction to my 2024 Movember fundraising: the background to Movember internationally, its focuses of prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health and suicide, and my personal motivation: my late husband Stu’s diagnosis with advanced prostate cancer in 2017 and his 7-year struggle with cancer.Episode LinksMy Movember fundraising linksHere are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health:* Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Mo...2024-11-0629 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesBad Metrics Lead to Bad ResultsWhatever you call it: Campbell’s Law (no relation), Goodhart’s Law, or the cobra effect — when you use measures that are merely cheap stand-ins for a much more difficult result you want to get at, people will start gaming that measure. And you will often get a result you really don’t like.Episode LinksWells Fargo NewsBloomberg, Matt Levine: Wells Fargo Mouse JigglersIn 2016, Wells Fargo & Co. got in trouble for opening fake accounts. What happened was that Wells Fargo’s senior management had decided that it wanted its branch...2024-06-1833 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe Problem of Pain and DrugsThis one is dark, so you’ve been warned. In my post last week on drug overdoses, I noted the great increase in drug overdose deaths during the pandemic, and I address the issue of drug addiction and its relationship with physical pain. Sometimes, there are no good choices. Episode Links (Updated)Matt Bivens, M.D. piece:Drug Overdose Death StatsDashboard of U.S. Population Mortality — Opioid DeathsSOA Research page: U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2021 ExperienceHistorical ItemsLaudanum: is a tinctu...2024-05-1455 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesWho Survives to 2098?Back in December, somebody asked me how many people alive now would be alive in 75 years. The answer: about 15% (for the U.S.). This is not a trivial question — it relates to questions of political decision-making for the long-term, such as public finance. In this episode, I look at the survivorship for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, and 75 years, and think through what this means.Graphs and spreadsheet below.Episode Links, Graphs, and MoreData and AssumptionsPopulation EstimateReleased 11 April 2024: 2023 Population Estimates by Age and SexSocial Security Mo...2024-04-2930 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesFive Decades of MeepI’ve got five decades on me now, and five pieces of advice/themes to share:* Be a good animal* The universe is stranger and more wonderful than you can imagine* Never pay retail!* You can try anything once OR Risk is Opportunity* It’s not about you (or me)Episode LinksBe a Good Animal2015 LinkedIn: Best Advice: Be a Good AnimalBattling Cognitive Bias, reprint in 2018Thank you for reading STUMP - Meep on public finance, pens...2024-04-2244 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesWhat is Truth?In this episode, I look at the most recent revelations re: Francesca Gino’s academia malfeasance, but other tales of academic malpractice. Such as: filling in missing values in datasets with Excel’s autofill functionality, and not sharing data in chemistry/material science or cancer research in what may be fraudulent research. How can we depend on the data and results from what is supposedly hard science research?Episode LinksFrancesca GinoScience, 9 Apr 2024: Embattled Harvard honesty professor accused of plagiarism by Cathleen O’GradyHarvard University honesty researcher Francesca Gino, whose...2024-04-1649 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPublic Pension Problems -- Proposed Solutions, But Will They Fix Anything?Let’s look at the condition of Minnesota Teachers, Connecticut state funds, and Chicago pensions, and three different (actually more) proposals to fix what ails these systems.While Chicago is actually in the worst situation, the proposals for Chicago sound the most realistic in terms of fixing its problems.Edward Siedle’s linksMar 2024: Minnesota Teachers Fundraise Forensic Audit of State Pension SystemApr 2024: Minnesota Teacher Pension Forensic Investigation Invites Whistleblower, Expert And Public ParticipationMinnesota Teachers in Public Plans DatabaseMinnesota Teachers Retirement Association - co...2024-04-0940 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesRetirement Age, Life Expectancy, and Social SecurityThat life expectancy was around 64 when Social Security was started is misleading. That is also irrelevant for making decisions for making Social Security sustainable now. The parameters involved are more complex: we need to look at life expectancy age 65, the size of the working population compared to the retired population, and how many children are coming to add to that working population. Decisions must be made within the next decade — raise taxes, cut benefits, or some combination. People will not be happy.Episode LinksPrior STUMP posts related:On Li...2024-03-1932 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesOn Self-Regulation: Sumo, Failing Annuities, and Public Pension PracticeLooking at a recent sumo world scandal, but also looking at it from the point of view of self-regulation. Can self-regulation work? Looking at professional sumo in Japan, Equitable Life Assurance Society in the UK, and actuarial practice in public pensions in the United States.[Gyoji photo: By Eckhard Pecher (Arcimboldo) - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3381695]Episode LinksHokuseiho/Miyagino Bullying ScandalBBC News: Hakuho: Top sumo champion demoted due to protege's violenceTachiai Blog: Hokuseiho is out; Miyagino Hangs On...2024-03-0942 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesClassics on LeadershipI reach back to a two-parter I wrote in 2012 for the Stepping Stone, the newsletter for the Leadership and Personal Development interest section of the Society of Actuaries. My argument: read the classics — they’re chock full of stories relevant to leadership. Episode LinksThe original articles:Part 1: Leadership Books - the ClassicsPart 2: The Classics, Part 2Project Gutenberg LinksPlutarch: Lives of the noble Grecians and Romans by PlutarchThe Lives of the Twelve Caesars, Complete by SuetoniusThe History of the Pelo...2024-02-2537 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPresidents Day 2024: Financial State of the CitiesLet’s look at the 2024 Financial State of the Cities, the annual report from Truth in Accounting. This one is based on the reports coming from FY2022, so there is a lag, as you can tell. I focus specifically on New York City, the city coming in dead last, as well as a coming development in “machine-readable” data for state and local financial reporting.Episode LinksTruth in Accounting’s FSOC 2024PDF: https://www.truthinaccounting.org/library/doclib/Financial-State-of-the-Cities-2024.pdfA few graphsA couple “random” towns I didn’t tal...2024-02-1943 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesTales of Fiscal Accountability (or not)Three tales of accountability… or lack thereof. I start with a “heartwarming” tale of a supposed Excel error - $92 million error - that becomes an opportunity to strengthen the corporate team… yay! (That’s not exactly what happened, FWIW.) The second one is from Liz Farmer and involves a Virginia town with finances in a mess. And the third… is really big. But shouldn’t surprise anybody.Episode LinksLiz Farmer’s substackI was not realizing this story is free to all:Here is a quote from this free story:2024-02-1343 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe Sentinel Effect, Centenarians, and Pension FraudI cover how some people live to a grand old age — by lying about it! And why do they do that? For the money, of course! The sentinel effect, though, can prevent this from occurring. Looking at the case of the oldest man in Japan who had been dead for 30 years and more.Episode linksSecret of Supercentenarians?2009, NewScientist: Secrets of the centenarians: Life begins at 100Dying of old age"There is one, and only one, cause of death at older ages. And that is ol...2024-01-3129 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesAcademia - Credentialism vs. EducationIn the brou-ha-ha over Chris Rufo’s masters degree from Harvard (Extension School), people expose that Harvard education is not particularly special, but that the brand comes from selectivity more than the education. I talk about the distinction between education and credentials, and my preference for separating the two.Episode LinksHarvardAbout Harvard Extension SchoolSince our founding in 1910, we have extended Harvard University to the world — to adult learners who have the curiosity and drive to be challenged. Part of the Harvard Division of Continuing Education, we serve...2024-01-2149 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesAcademia - Dealing with Writing in the Age of ChatGPTIn which I give some advice as to what composition teachers should do, given that students can just go to chatGPT and ask it to generate an essay on whatever. The tool is being used, and I think there are intelligent ways to use it for composition.Episode LinksPrior episode in referring to ChatGPT use in academic papersGuillaume CabanacTwitter feed: Guillaume Cabanac ⟨here and elsewhere⟩He retweeted: https://twitter.com/clementFFF/status/1745193183988871357https://twitter.com/gcabanac/stat...2024-01-1731 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPlagiarism and Faked Data in AcademiaIn which I discuss the recent brou-ha-ha over ex-President of Harvard Claudine Gay’s plagiarism in her published papers (and dissertation), the likelihood of widespread plagiarism (in certain fields), and the incentives to plagiarism and faked data in academia.Episode LinksTom Lehrer: LobachevskyTom Lehrer songs page for LobachevskyLyricsI am never forget the day I first meet the great Lobachevsky. In one word he told me secret of success in mathematics: Plagiarize! Plagiarize! Let no one el...2024-01-1440 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe Year in Meep: 2023 -- Growth, Top Posts, and Some RecommendationsLet’s look back on the year that was 2023 at STUMP: growth in subscriptions, my top four posts from 2023, my spin-off substack in sumo statistics, and some Catholic recommendations for the new year.Episode LinksSTUMP growth(hmmm, kind of oxymoronic)That vertical leap in midyear is thanks to the substack network. I did not do any promotional drive myself.Top 4 Posts1. Top Causes of Death by Age Group, 2021: Finalized U.S. Stats2. Geeking Out: Replicating Nate Silver's COVID & Partisanship "Work"...2023-12-3131 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPublic Pension Actuaries to Explain a New MeasureI look at an opinion piece by fellow actuary Larry Pollack, on the new low-default pension obligation measure that is to be added to actuarial reports for public pensions in the U.S. These should start coming out in 2024.Episode LinksLarry Pollack: New Disclosure Rules Expose Bad Actuarial Finance; Obscures Trillions of Public Pension DebtActuarial finance assumes away the cost of the guarantee, but real finance doesn’t work that way.….The Actuarial Standards Board, which defines professional standards for actuaries, finally acknowledged the...2023-12-2139 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMovember 2023 Wrap-up: Thanks, Caritas, and EncouragementIn which I thank all the 2023 Movember donors, and I encourage spreading the love.Episode linksMovember 2023Here are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health:* Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Movember itself* My Movember Facebook fundraiser – my officially linked fundraiser, if this works better for youAnd here’s a QR code if that works better for you:Literar...2023-11-3039 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMovember 2023 - Current Status and TrendsLooking at my Movember 2023 fundraiser, its current progress, and concerns over how cancer screening and treatment may have been interrupted during the pandemic. Episode LinksMovember FundraiserHere are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health:* Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Movember itself* My Movember Facebook fundraiser – my officially linked fundraiser, if this works better for youAnd here’s a QR code if that work...2023-11-1218 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe Shape of U.S. Mortality, 1900-2018Spurred on the untimely death of Matthew Perry (from the cast of Friends, not the 19th century U.S. naval commander), I look back at the history of U.S. mortality trends in a longer trend and how much they’ve improved, and how middle-aged men dying (possibly) of a heart attack would have been very common in the 1950s… but then I end on a happy note. Seriously.Episode LinksMortality Trends in the United States, 1900–2018Childhood death ratesChildren's Death Rates Prior Posts* 2023: Toddler and Teen T...2023-10-3028 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesSpreadsheet Shenanigans 2: Electric Bugaloo -- ModelingIn which I use the example of a valuation model gone awry from “Power Failure”, reviewed by Paul Conlin in an April 2023 Society of Actuaries podcast (linked in show notes). The book was about the failure of GE when it switched from being an electricity-related company to a financial services company. This episode is really about professionalism in modeling - and how all modeling professionals should have standards.Episode LinksSociety of Actuaries Podcasthttps://soapodcasts.libsyn.com/2023/04Dave Dillon discussed with Paul Conlin, FSA, MAAA, the rece...2023-10-1643 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesSpreadsheet Shenanigans - Part 1In which I look at data issues generated via spreadsheet use (specifically how Excel changes data when are imported into Excel) in genomics research. I reference the European Spreadsheet Risks Interest Group (I’m a member!), ASOP 23 on data quality, and give some unsolicited advice to the genomics research community. There will be a part two on other spreadsheet issues, and other actuarial standards. (Professionalism credit! For free!)Episode LinksRetraction Watch guest post: Genomics has a spreadsheet problem by Mandhri Abeysooriya and Mark ZiemannExcerpt:Gene-name er...2023-10-0752 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesIndia's Pension Crisis is Everybody's CrisisIn which I take Amit Varma’s podcast The Seen and the Unseen’s episode 347: India’s Pension Crisis, which he talks with guests Ajay Shah and Renuka Sane. In 2004, India switched from a traditional defined benefit plan for its public pensions to a defined contribution plan… and opened it up to the general population as well. In theory, at least. Evidently, in recent years, it has been running into political trouble. The issues in India’s retirement system woes are similar to the ones seen internationally.Episode LinksThe Seen and the Unseen wit...2023-09-3030 min
SOA Podcasts - Society of ActuariesActuary of the Future: Launching Your Actuarial Career: Mary Pat Campbell Join Chris Smith, ASA, and Mary Pat Campbell, FSA for an insightful discussion full of tips and tricks for early-career actuaries and those aspiring to enter the field (as well as a brief detour into the topic of poker).2023-09-1833 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesFight Against Excess Mortality: the Insurance Collaboration to Save LivesI describe the concept behind the group Insurance Collaboration to Save Lives, in which the financial interests of insurance companies (specifically, life insurance companies) align with helping people to live longer, sometimes with some relatively simple interventions to improve health outcomes. There are upcoming conferences and talks (some free!) so check out the show notes.Episode LinksInsurance Collaboration to Save Liveshttps://www.insurancecollaborationtosavelives.org/Upcoming eventsSociety of Insurance Research 2023 Annual ConferenceDate(s): September 10th-12th, 2023Where: The...2023-09-0922 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesTalking Tech: On Early (and Late) Adoption of TechIn which I explain why I dodged buying a smartphone until two weeks ago (and why I finally bought one), my perspective on using technology, and some apps in AI I have been using lately (and ones I am seeking). Also — Substack has implemented a podcast transcription feature - check it out!Episode LinksCross-written lettersWikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossed_letterA crossed letter is a manuscript letter which contains two separate sets of writing, one written over the other at right-angles.[1][2] This was do...2023-09-0229 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesSeek and Ye Shall Find....What?Three different tales of seeking something other than truth — and definitely getting something else: deadly chihuahuas (?), ChatGPT-generated academic papers (?), and who exactly tampered with data… and shouldn’t the researchers whose names are on the paper have checked that the data were credible?Episode LinksThe stupid argument on Reddit (ripped out of context to protect the stupid):Matthew 7:7-8, KJV7 Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you:8 For every one that...2023-08-2033 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesBuilding Bridges to STEM CareersI talk about BEAM (Bridge to Enter Advanced Mathematics), an educational non-profit currently based in NYC and LA focused on providing a program to help underserved students enter advanced study in mathematics. I have a personal connection to the founder Dan Zaharapol through Canada/USA Mathcamp, back when he was a student and I was staff. BEAM has a 10-year strategic growth plan and is also seeking people for two key roles.Episode LinksBEAM: Bridge to Enter Advanced Mathematics: beammath.orgPositions availableLinkedIn post from founder Daniel Zaharapol2023-08-0326 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesGatekeeping in Education and Professions: Actuarial, Legal, and Sumo!I look at gatekeeping aspects in higher education and particular professions, specifically looking at my own profession, as the Society of Actuaries announces upcoming changes to the pathway to the Fellowship credential (which I have). Also, I consider research and advocacy from the Brookings Institute on restrictions in college majors. I did throw in sumo (because I always throw in sumo when I can), but also for a strong contrast to these other professions: “tournament” professions are much more brutal in “gatekeeping”.Episode LinksBrookings on Major RestrictionsRestricted access to lucrativ...2023-07-3038 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDetroit Bankruptcy a Decade LaterThe Detroit bankruptcy was filed in federal court in July 2013, and I look at the history since then. There is a lawsuit going on right now in 2023, involving the Detroit police and fire pension fund, which relates to its deal from the bankruptcy workout. In addition, the school system wasn’t involved in the bankruptcy. I look at STUMP’s coverage of Detroit’s woes over the past decade. Episode LinksReason articleA Decade After Bankruptcy, Is Detroit Better?If there is a lesson from D...2023-07-2237 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesLying about ScienceI discuss two other research reports by Francesca Gino in which the Data Colada fraud researchers found tampered data, how science (and other STEM) actually gets developed, and the need for publishing negative results … that there’s no “there” there. Even the “hard” sciences find replication problems in research sometimes.Episode LinksData Colada LinksPart 3: [111] Data Falsificada (Part 3): "The Cheaters Are Out of Order"The Anomaly: Out-Of-Order ObservationsAs in Part 1 of this series (Colada 109 .htm), the tell-tale sign of fraud in this dataset comes from h...2023-07-0731 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesWhat is the Value of a Promise?In this episode, I discuss the new version of Actuarial Standard of Practice 4, Measuring Pension Obligations, and its requirement of calculating and disclosing a low-default-risk obligation measure. This standard went into effect in February 2023, so these numbers will be coming out in reports to come, and will be most notable in disparities to the standard valuation of public pension obligations, which tend to use much higher discount rates, leading to much lower values. What may happen?Episode LinksActuarial Standard of Practice 43.11 LOW-DEFAULT-RISK OBLIGATION MEASUREWhen performing...2023-06-3037 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesLying about lyingI go through the story of some social science experiments on dishonesty that seem to have some data that have been altered from their original form. I first wrote about these experiments back in 2013, then had an update in 2021 when data scientists at Data Colada found altered data from one of the studies, and now they have found further evidence of data falsification in 2023. They use both aspects of the altered data to detect it as well as ways Microsoft Excel works to find the falsified data.Episode LinksData Colada links17 Aug 2021: [98...2023-06-2337 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesLightning Strike DeathsLightning strike deaths have decreased by over 80% from 1968 to 2022! Thanks to lots of changes, but primarily because of improved weather forecasting. Alas, they still occur, as was just reported from Texas, but we can thank technological change for this benefit.Episode LinksSubstack post link (this post)Lightning Strike DeathsGraph of Lightning strike death countsGraph of Lightning strike death locationsBy S.fever - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=74366934Story from Texas6-year-old boy...2023-06-1727 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesFailure, Sunk Costs, and Candace WheelerIt’s graduation season around here, so I tell my own story of a failure to get a degree — which includes how I found inspiration in an exhibit at the Met Museum of Art in 2001 to help me decide to make a big change in my life and move onto something else. It’s a weird piece of advice for grads, I know, but hey — give people something different. I talk about sunk costs, opportunity cost, and constrained optimization as well.Episode LinksCandace WheelerThe Stepping Stone, August 2016: “Leadership Inspiration: Candace Wheeler— Bringing Bea...2023-06-1028 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe Museum of FailureI took a trip to Brooklyn to the Museum of Failure, a pop-up installation in Industry City. It’s a look at failed innovations, and some fun reminders of how much work it is to really make something succeed. It does well to remember how difficult it is to get everything to hit all targets.Episode LinksThe Museum of FailureMuseum of Failure blogFacit CalculatorsFacit (Facit AB) was an industrial corporation and manufacturer of office products including furniture. It was based in Åtvidaberg, Sweden, and founded in...2023-05-3125 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesWalking Around CemeteriesYesterday, I walked around the Ancient Burying Ground in Hartford, Connecticut, next door to my office building. I found some interesting graves, and I also remembered an article by a fellow actuary who also walked around his local cemetery. And I found a headstone database for the Ancient Burying Ground. Happy Memorial Day!Episode LinksAncient Burying GroundDeath’s Head GravestonesImages began to appear on Connecticut gravestones late in the 1600s. Stones from this period into the early 1700s evolved from crudely simple heads into a fully realized, forbidding, gr...2023-05-2620 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesSpending Dreams of Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Waking to RealityIn which I discuss some of the fiscal plans for Chicago of the new mayor Brandon Johnson and some of his political friends… and the constraints they will labor under: a population that has already shrunk and a significant revenue target that has already threatened to up stakes and move out of Illinois entirely.Episode LinksEarlier STUMP post:8 May 2023, WBBM: Brandon Johnson inheriting some of the nation’s worst-funded pensions, finance expert says1 May 2023, The 74: New Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Inherits America’s Worst Teacher Pension MessComp...2023-05-1924 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMortality Trends and Cognitive BiasesIn which I use some “mysterious” deaths in the Dominican Republic, gun deaths, and drug overdose deaths to talk about two core cognitive biases: confirmation bias and availability bias (or heuristic). I also use non-mortality examples from an article I wrote in 2010.Episode LinksBattling Cognitive BiasApril 2010: “Battling Cognitive Bias”, The Stepping Stone, Society of ActuariesTime and again, one hears stories where a commonly seen effect is ignored by scientists for years as “noise”, “coincidence” or “irrelevant”. Only later, other people without these built-in preconceptions can make real breakthroughs...2023-05-1234 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesChoices Have Consequences: Pension Obligation BondsI look back at why pension obligation bonds were pursued by public pension plans, whether they were a good idea, and specifically what makes them OF THE DEVIL (and what that means). Yes, I hope that got your attention. To be sure, with increasing interest rates right now, POB deals will be few and far between, but I want to take a snapshot of why POBs are not ONE CLEVER TRICK for solving public pension plan problems. They’re more a way to make a bad situation worse.Episode Links10-year Treasury rate...2023-05-0524 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDanger! Fire, Hurricanes, Drowning, and MoreIn response to two other podcasts, I talk about some concrete risks that people have dealt with through history, but I think people may not fear as much as they should anymore. Fear (the emotional reaction to risk) and danger (the rational assessment of risk) can guide you, but it helps for you to take a broad look at the environment.Episode LinksCrossing Thin Ice podcast - look for Episode 8, 24 Apr 2023, Fear v. DangerResearch Insights SOA podcast - look for 26 Apr 2023, 16th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks Key Findings...2023-04-2823 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesChoices Have Consequences: Retirement PolicyTalking about the upcoming theme for posts this week: CHOICES HAVE CONSEQUENCES…. for retirement policy. The big choices: retirement age, the shape of benefits (COLAs, taxable?, etc), and more… but there was a choice made before all these that influenced how all of these will turn out: total fertility rate.Episode LinksSTUMP, April 14: The French Continue to Protest Over Retirement Age ChangesI have a Google news alert on “retirement age” that emails me weekly, and every week this year it’s been full of headlines about French protests over raising the retirement...2023-04-1715 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesFinancial Reporting v. Budgeting: SC Comptroller Resigns Over $3.5 Billion ErrorThe long-time comptroller general of South Carolina was recently forced to resign due to a $3.5 billion cash balance error that accrued over a decade in accounting. How did this happen, and why didn’t this affect state budgets? What is the difference between budgets and financial reports?Episode LinksAssociated Press, March 23, 2023: South Carolina’s top accountant to resign after $3.5B errorCOLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — South Carolina’s embattled top accountant will step down next month after a $3.5 billion error in the year-end financial report he oversaw, according to a resignat...2023-04-1325 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMemento Mori for Holy Week 2023In which I talk about all sorts of death themes surrounding Holy Week, art works at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, and death in my life… remember your death while we are in life. It doesn’t mean things are morbid.Episode LinksSpy WednesdayCatholic News Agency: Why is today called Spy Wednesday?Met Museum of ArtSalvador DaliThe Last SupperJuan de ParejaExhibit linkThis exhibition offers an unprecedented look at the life and artistic achievements of seve...2023-04-0522 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPublic Finance and DataIn a recent federal bill passed at the end of 2022, the Financial Data Transparency Act is supposedly bringing us more accessible public financial information. Will it bring better public finance decisions? I am skeptical, to understate the situation — but I am looking forward to more accessible info! Jumping off from a recent episode of the Public Money Pod.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode NotesPu...2023-03-3024 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesKidney Disease Deaths, the IBM PCjr, and My Aunt PatToday, I gave a talk to the Iowa Actuaries Club, pointing out that one of the worrying death trends during 2020-2022 in the U.S. has been increasing kidney disease deaths. This reminds me of when my Aunt Pat had me teach her how to use IBM computers in the mid-1980s (though she had been working there since the 1970s), and I aided at a Kidney Foundation summer camp, which is actually related to the teach-Aunt-Pat-to-use-computers project.…and why didn’t my dad, the electrical engineer who worked at IBM, teach Aunt Pat instead of the 11-yea...2023-03-2327 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesHow Life Insurers FailI go over how life/annuity insurers go insolvent, and why we’ve not seen any big insolvencies in the United States lately… (let’s not jinx this). Some history of insurance regulation and life insurer insolvencies. Insurers aren’t banks, you know.Episode LinksDecember 2012: “A Tale of Two Formulas: Solvency II SCR and RBC”An article I wrote for the Society of Actuaries newsletter, The Financial Reporter, to contrast a specific item of European and United States solvency regulation.To begin with, there is a top-down vision of the Solvency II...2023-03-1634 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDon't Use ChatGPT for Numbers (Right Now)I originally meant to talk about Japan’s demographic problem, but I decided to talk about chatGPT instead because of a footnote on an article on Japan. Ain’t that the way. So I think through how technology has changed the corporate workplace over the last 50 years….and how awful chatGPT is (currently) at doing quantitative work. Because that’s not what it’s for.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode...2023-03-0820 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDoing the Math on Social Security and MedicareIn which I review recent back-and-forth over Congressional Budget Office and Social Security Trustees projections of Social Security and Medicare solvency, as well as comments over tax increases and/or benefit cuts to shift to sustainability. Because nobody is really disputing that the programs as currently constituted are going to be able to last longer than a decade as-is.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksSocial...2023-02-2837 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesAsh Wednesday 2023: More on Years of Life LostIn which I discuss the mortality measure years of life lost (YLL), aspects of this measure, what it is used for, and why I don’t like it. That said, I will be using YLL in addition to my preferred measures — crude death rate and age-adjusted death rate — in upcoming mortality posts.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksYears of Life Lost: An Exploration, U.S., 2018-2022...2023-02-2335 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesChicago Mayoral Race: Good Luck Dealing With the PensionsIn this episode, I commiserate with the poor sucker who wins the Chicago mayoral race, and has to deal with the pension disaster coming their way. Also, RIP for Laurence Msall, who had been President of the Civic Federation of Chicago for 21 years and died too young. STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksLaurence MsallStatement on the Passing of Civic Federation President Laurence...2023-02-0621 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMore on COVID as a top cause of death for childrenIn this episode, I respond to a JAMA Open Network article on COVID being the 8th top cause of death for children and “young people” from yesterday (yes, I did a post on it already) to explain more what annoyed me so much. The moral: when you do mortality analyses, you need to separate your babies from the kids, and the young adults from the kids as well. Also, picking the worst mortality period from the past isn’t necessarily going to influence action in the future.Oh, and pools are dangerous to little kids. (But th...2023-02-0126 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesRetirement Age - Protests in France, But Choices Must be MadeLast week, there were protests across France against higher retirement ages — from 62 to 64. I discuss the trade-offs being made, what is the “real” retirement age in the United States’ Social Security, and that time is running out on making this decision.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksAssociated Press: France: Over 1 million march against raising retirement age At least 1.1 million people protested on the streets...2023-01-2319 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe Micawber Principle Even Applies to Public FinanceLet’s consider a core principle of finance, as announced by fictional character Wilkins Micawber of David Copperfield, by Charles Dickens: “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness.Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds nought and six [pence], result misery.” In short: if you continually spend more than you bring in, you will surely come to grief. This core concept applies to public finance as it does to personal finance, and we will be seeing this in our journey during 2023. Come along with me!...2023-01-1722 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPodcast Look at 2022 Excess MortalityIn this episode, I talk through my most recent post on 2022 U.S. mortality by adult age groups, split out into three major groupings (seniors, middle-aged, young adults). Links below.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksFull PopulationThe 2022-only graph for the whole population (including kids, but they barely add to the rate):The full graph going back to 2020:...2023-01-1028 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesHappy New Year from STUMP! Two Ideas...I have two ideas for 2023: learn more (and fail more); get more sleep! I’m always doing the first and never tie it to the new year — I’m always failing at the second (what can I say). I did sleep most of New Years’ Day 2023 away, so at least I have that going for me….STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksMike Shedlock at Mish Talk:2023-01-0217 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesA Very Special STUMP Holiday EpisodeHave a Happy Holiday surprise! Meep regales you with a few Christmas/Winter song parodies in lieu of a normal STUMP podcast. Lyrics are below, by Meep (and some by Stu).Ho Ho Ho, Merry Christmas!STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Parody Lyrics(with links for the technical terms, especially the sumo)On the 1st day of Christmas, STUMP podcast gave to me…....2022-12-2605 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMore on Correlating COVID Vax Status with Traffic RiskI continue to rant about that correlation paper on COVID “vaccine hesitancy” and traffic risk. I leave the statistical critiques to others (and I drop the links below and to my prior post), but the correlation can be rock solid and the conclusion still be completely off. Be careful of the over-interpretation of correlative studies.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksThe paper in question:CO...2022-12-2130 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesCentral States Teamsters -- some backstory on their bailoutIn this episode, I give some background on the players in the Central States Teamsters bailout — the PBGC, ERISA, the prior attempts at fixing multiemployer plans, why multiemployer plans got into trouble compared to single employer plans - and more!STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksCurrent EventsDec 10, 2022: Central States Teamsters Pension Fund finally gets its bailout money, as planned -- no...2022-12-1430 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesChaucer on AdviceIn this episode of STUMP Death & Taxes, I look to The Tale of Melibee from the Canterbury Tales, and how Chaucer's advice on how to choose advisors is still useful 600+ years later. STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksAugust 2015 Stepping Stone: Chaucer on Choosing AdvisorsOctober 2015 LinkedIn: Take Some Advice from Chaucer... On Taking Advice* Don't ask for advice if...2022-12-0717 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMovember 2022: Men and SuicideIn this episode, I talk about the bad trends for men and death by suicide in the U.S., the sex gap in suicide, and the importance of looking after mental health. I’m fundraising for men’s mental health, as well as prostate cancer, with my fundraising for Movember in 2022 - check out my links below!STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksFor Givi...2022-11-2817 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesFTX, Dickens, and Business FraudIn this episode, I look at FTX through the lens of two Dickens novels: Martin Chuzzlewit and Little Dorrit. Wait, don’t go! I swear, it’s more interesting than it sounds. Heh. Charles Dickens knew business fraud and the boom-and-bust of the Victorian London business scene, capturing it very well in his novels. The base motives at the heart of these schemes keep rolling on.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.2022-11-2124 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMovember and Prostate Cancer Mortality TrendsIn this episode, I talk about my Movember fundraiser, the long-term trend for U.S. prostate cancer mortality trends (up, down, then sideways), and Stu’s own experience with advanced prostate cancer. STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksMy Movember fundraiser* Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Movember itself* My Movember Facebook fundraiser – my officially linked fundraiser, if this wor...2022-11-1632 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesSocial Security PoliticsIn this episode, I talk about two odd last-minute campaign pitches from the White House to bolster the Democratic Party's chances in the 2022 elections. The first was a boast about 2022 COLAs being the highest in a decade (actually, the highest in 40 years), and the second has to do with Republicans going to cut Social Security benefits. 'The first is an odd claim, as it highlights recent inflation. The second may be true but seems unlikely, as most politicians of any party have avoided doing anything about Social Security unless they’re forced to. But as the Tr...2022-11-0715 min
STUMP - Death and Taxes2021 Provisional U.S. Population MortalityIn this episode, I talk about a recent report I wrote for the Society of Actuaries, on provisional data from the CDC on U.S. mortality in 2021, also placing it in context of 1999-2020 finalized mortality data, the three major mortality metrics used, and differences by age and sex in trend.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode LinksReport LinkAs I write this, the...2022-11-0130 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesGeeking Out: Life Insurance and Mortality Experience StudiesIn which I talk about how insurance companies (and especially life reinsurance companies) investigate mortality trends in their own business, and why individual life insurance and group life insurance differs. Yep, it’s wonky! There are differences due to age ranges in the business, sex ratios, geographic coverage, and all sorts of reasons — check it out!STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related linksSociety of Actuaries Experience Stud...2022-10-2528 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesLiability-Driven Investment: Definitions and JargonI talk about the term “liability-driven investment” (or LDI). It’s been blamed for some trouble in the United Kingdom lately during their interest rate run-up, but no such trouble has occurred in the United States as interest rates have also run up over here. It turns out, LDI is a term that can mean many different things which can differ depending on different jurisdictions and different goals.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or pai...2022-10-1818 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPolitical Risk and Public Pension InvestmentsIn which I look at recent news where some politicians announce they’re dumping an asset manager for the public pensions over political concerns, note some comments on ESG in public pensions, and then point out that politicians aren’t fiduciaries for public pensions.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Links from the podcastChief Investment Officer: 10 Oct 2022: Louisiana Divests Nearly $800 Million from BlackRock to P...2022-10-1329 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThere is no such thing as risk-freeIn which I tell some stories of transforming and valuing risk — and the mistake of marking it zero, when the risk is most definitely not zero. Telling the story of Long-Term Capital Management, lifecycle mutual funds versus money market funds, and more.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related LinksLong Term Capital ManagementInvestopedia articleWhen Russia defaulted on its debt in...2022-10-0422 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesA Jump in Interest Rates But No Restraint from Government....YetThe Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, the stock market takes a dive, the new British PM announces new policy, the pound takes a dive, and people notice that maybe the bills are starting to come due. JUST KIDDING! The politicians are still partying with current money, future money, and nonexistent money. Huzzah! STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related LinksEffective Federal Funds Rate, 2000-now:FOMC...2022-09-2722 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesGeeking Out Over TerminologyIn which I promote Dominic Lee’s new site Maverick Actuary, but also look at how we geeks can be more effective in communicating with the non-geeks.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode linksMaverick Actuary:I highly recommend The Maverick Actuary’s Podcast which can be found on his website: https://www.maverickactuary.com/podcastIt’s also on major podcast services:S...2022-09-2025 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesBack to Taxachusetts?In which I look at the Pioneer Institute’s campaign against a ballot proposal to amend the Massachusetts state constitution, and to wander down the route other northeastern states have trod: ever-increasing tax rates on high-income residents, driving them to lower-tax climes.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode Links:Wall Street Journal Op-Ed - Don’t Make Massachusetts ‘Taxachusetts’ Again by Jim StergiosUnl...2022-09-1318 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesAdvice on the CDC 2021 Life Expectancy ReportIn which I give advice to those currently living as to how to consider the effects of COVID on their life expectancy (short version: yes, COVID may have had an effect; no, the CDC report provides no information on that score) and advice to the CDC to stop using period life expectancy as a metric in following population mortality trends.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode Links2022-09-0619 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesStudent loan reduction: short-term and long-term effectsIn this episode, I talk about the potential taxability of student loan forgiveness (for state income tax), but more about the long-term public finance problem. Those seeing a small bailout now will be expected to pay for a larger problem in just a decade.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related Links:Tax Foundation: List of States That Might Tax Student Loan Debt Cancellation Dwindles, originally posted August 25, 2022...2022-08-3116 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPublic Pensions, ESG, DeSantis, and The Catholic ChurchSTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode Links:July 27, 2022 Press Release: Governor Ron DeSantis Announces Initiatives to Protect Floridians from ESG Financial FraudGovernor DeSantis’ proposed legislation for the 2023 Legislative Session will:Prohibit big banks, credit card companies and money transmitters from discriminating against customers for their religious, political, or social beliefs.Prohibit State Board of Administration (SBA) fund managers from considering ESG factors wh...2022-08-2428 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesLooking at Recent Mortality Increases -- and Expectations for the FutureLooking at where the highest relative increases occurred in mortality in 2021 in the U.S. (age 40-44), the causes that drove it (different for different age groups), and thinking about how that may influence future mortality trends.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related LinksKey graph of relative change in mortalityGen X Trend:Millennial Trend:Links to posts on key...2022-08-1523 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesExpertise, Definitions, and CredibilitySTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related Links2017: Friday Trumpery: The Murder-Suicide of Expertise [H]ere are the hallmarks of why “experts” are not being trusted:* The experts are not all that expert (well-credentialed, but deeply ignorant)* The experts lack intellectual humility – they hold onto wrong claims far past reasonability as a result, and make overconfident pronouncements* The experts are intell...2022-08-0223 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMillennial Massacre OverviewSTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Podcast Links and NotesMain post:Twitter thread:Interesting responses from others:The picture:Now Scotland:Some prior posts on drug overdoses:Top causes of death:GoActuary thread on mortality trends:https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388 Get full access to...2022-07-2627 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMBTA and Pension Obligation BondsSTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Related Links:Press Release from the Pioneer Institute in June: Study Finds Pension Obligation Bonds Could Worsen T Retirement Fund’s Financial WoesA new study published by Pioneer Institute finds that issuing pension obligation bonds (POBs) to refinance $360 million of the MBTA Retirement Fund’s (MBTARF’s) $1.3 billion unfunded pension liability would only compound the T’s already serious financia...2022-07-1919 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesWaiting Patiently on Public PensionsRelated LinksA screenshot of the old Actuarial Outpost (RIP):(Sorry, fellow AOians, I only archived things important to me, which were mainly public pensions threads, Social Security, Excel, and the Moody’s Rate history. None of the drama crap.)New York Times: 2015 July 9 Bad Math and a Coming Public Pension CrisisWhen Jim Palermo was serving as a trustee of the village of La Grange, Ill., he noticed something peculiar about the local police officers and firefighters. They were not going to live as long as might be ex...2022-07-1123 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesKen Griffin and Citadel Leave IllinoisPodcast Related LinksMark Glennon at Wirepoints on Ken Griffin: The Illinois Political Establishment’s Shameful Response To The Departure Of Ken Griffin And CitadelOn a wall in Ken Griffin’s office at Citadel in Chicago, I’m told by people who worked there, hangs a thank you note from a six-year old. Like many kids that age, he was enthralled by prehistoric creatures so he wrote to thank Griffin for funding Evolving Planet, a permanent wing in Chicago’s Field Museum.The six-year old was my son, who asked if he co...2022-06-2813 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPension Obligation BondsRelated LinksRecent post on Providence, Rhode Island POBs:Older STUMP posts on POBs:2018: Illinois Idiocy: Digesting the Presentation of the Mega Pension Obligation Bond Idea https://stump.marypat.org/article/906/illinois-idiocy-let-s-run-some-scenarios-on-a-gargantuan-pobThat was an idea of issuing a $100+ billion POB to cover the ginormous unfunded pension liabilities of Illinois. They didn’t do it.2015: Why are Pension Obligation Bonds OF THE DEVIL? A Lesson from the Dollar Auction http://stump.marypat.org/article/191/why-are-pension-obligation-bonds-of-the-devil-a-lesson-from-the-dollar-auctionThe dollar auction is a truly evil g...2022-06-2016 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesSocial Security Trust Fund Running Out(please excuse the audio bobbles - I tried to edit them all out, but I missed a few. It was a software problem in processing the file.)Related LinksCNBC: Social Security fund will be able to pay benefits one year longer than expected, Treasury saysOASI Trust Fund History: 1937-2021 - I will write more about this history another timeA quick graph of the ups and downs:Every time those dots dip below the heavy bold line, the Trust Fund shrank. You can see the trouble of...2022-06-1312 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesElon Musk, Fertility, and Decreasing PopulationsEpisode linksElon Musk tweets:The Total Fertility Rate graph:Musk’s followup:Musk has had 8 children, one of who died in infancy. Six of the children with his first wife. He had no children with his second wife (also divorced). And two children with ex-girlfriend. Census population change estimatesThis won’t embed on substack, alas. I will simply show you a few screenshots and you have to go over there for the interactivity.Here is the Census link:Ho...2022-05-3020 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDon't perpetrate financial fraud in spreadsheetsRelated LinksThe twitter thread starts here:Key tweets:From the legal filing:Next tweet:Image again:SEC press release of the fine:https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-84Defendants reduced losses under a market crash scenario in one risk report sent to investors from negative 42.1505489755747% to negative 4.1505489755747% -- by simply dropping the single digit 2. In another example, defendants “smoothed” performance data sent to investors by reducing losses on one day from negative 18.2607085709004% to negative 9.2607085709004% -- this time by cu...2022-05-2417 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesFraudulent Life InsurersRelated Links:Billion Dollar Bubble: IMDB Link and Wikipedia Linkan excerpt:When the company does not perform as well as expected Art [Lewis, played by James Woods] and others decide to create fake insurance policies in order to generate the necessary figures to match the expected performance, a provisional measure that is only expected to last a short time. More policies must continually be created in order to continue to the supposed growth of the company so Art enlists the aid of technician Al Green [played by Christopher Guest] to develop computer...2022-05-1716 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDon't sell insurance to the MafiaRelated LinksCBS News: Human skeletal remains found at drought-stricken Lake Mead days after body discovered in barrelAstral Codex Ten: Every Bay Area House Party“War insurance?”“Yeah. We pay out if there’s a war.”“Isn’t that massively correlated risk?”“Yeah. The idea is, we sell war insurance to companies who do badly if there’s a war - tourist attractions and the like. Then we sell the same amount of peace insurance to military contractors. As long as we get the probabilities and costs right, we make...2022-05-0915 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesThe sumo giant-killersThank you for reading STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more. This post is public so feel free to share it.Related links:DOSUKOI Sumo Salon — Giant-killers! available streaming for free until May 30, 2022The Enho v Tochinoshin bout I referred to (I was exaggerating about kicking his legs in the air):Hakkeyoi!A few sumo-related posts on STUMP: Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe2022-05-0418 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDeath, taxes, and entitlementsThank you for reading STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more. This post is public so feel free to share it.Episode LinksFinancial Times Piece: Baby bust: economic stimulus helps births rebound from coronavirus pandemic (because of difficulties linking, it goes to excerpt I captured at my Actuarial News website)The number of births in advanced economies has largely rebounded to levels before the coronavirus pandemic, a Financial Times analysis shows, a recovery that experts say was partly because of stimulus policies deployed to mitigate...2022-04-2615 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesWho Wants to Live Forever?Related Links:History of TIAA(-CREF): Wikipedia articleMethusaleh Foundation: https://www.mfoundation.org/Me talking about omega in December 2018:Living to 100 Symposium: A research symposium from the Society of Actuariesand, of course…. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe2022-04-1914 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesTax Week and the NY State BudgetLinks from the podcastDies IraeWikipedia article: Dies IraeVerdi’s Requiem Dies Irae from the Met OperaAren’t you glad I don’t use that version?Mozart Dies Irae:I said this was “sweeter” than Verdi, but that’s just relative. It’s still terrifying in its own way.NY State BudgetGov. Hochul Press Release: Governor Hochul Announces Highlights of Historic FY 2023 New York State BudgetEmpire State for Public Policy press release: Spend, Spend, Spend: Empire...2022-04-1116 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDeath and DataSorry for the delay - I was having trouble uploading the audio file.References in the recording:The Provisional CDC WONDER Database can be found here: https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.htmlASOP 23: Data Quality http://www.actuarialstandardsboard.org/asops/data-quality/The time I discussed data quality 2 years ago:(Actuaries! Listen to the podcast and watch the video! Read ASOP 23! Between the three should be 50 minutes… one credit of CE! Of professionalism! For free!)Stories on the geneticists changing the gene names because of Excel in Au...2022-04-0624 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesIncome taxes and wealth taxesLet’s look at the current proposal (but not too long, our faces might melt).Reason: Biden Is Trying To Pass a Wealth Tax—Again. It Could Be Unconstitutional.Now, like a sequel to a movie that wasn't any good the first time around, a variation of the Biden-Wyden wealth tax is back for another try in the president's latest budget. This time around, the White House is trying to sell it using slick language. The New York Times reports that a White House document described the tax, aimed at those with assets of more than $...2022-03-2908 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesInterest Rates and SumoFirst, thanks to FRED, Japan’s 10-year government bond yields versus U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields.Ugh. Yeah, you can see those negative interest rates in Japan. For 10-year government bonds.Sumo!Natto Sumo YouTube Channel - main way I watch the bouts.Video of one day of matches:NHK World — one of their Sumopedia videos, on gold star victoriesTwo Facebook groups on Sumo: SumoSumoSumo (very active, and my fave sumo group) and NHK World’s Grand Sumo group (not ve...2022-03-2216 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesDeath the Dickensian WayIn this episode, I discuss the many deaths in Dickens's novels. There are very many deaths in quite a variety.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Episode Links:I have not checked the following chart from Dear Mr. Dickens for accuracy, but a graphical representation of various named character deaths in Dickens novels:As you can see, Bleak House is the dying-est novels for named characters. 2022-03-1517 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMeep starts her taxesIn the audio podcast I talk about why I didn’t start preparing my tax returns until yesterday (when I usually have them done by now). I also discuss the advance child tax credit payments during 2021, and the battle for the SALT cap removal. I hope it fails, as a wise man once said.A related recent-ish story from CNBC:Families are struggling again after just 2 months without child tax credit paymentsIt’s been two months since families with eligible children stopped getting advance child tax credit payments in December.2022-03-0810 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesMemorial and Yuri DmitrievRelated links:Video from today — Memorial live stream against war:Memorial International:https://www.memo.ru/en-us/memorial/mission-and-statute/The Dmitriev Affair:https://dmitrievaffair.com/Dmitriev Affair Links:28 February 2022: MEMORIAL APPEAL AGAINST CLOSURE FAILS31 December 2021: “THE MAIN THING IS TO PASS ON WHAT WE KNOW”Excerpts from Dmitriev’s translated letter in 31 Dec 2021 post:“It’s rare to find a family that did not suffer at the hands of the Bolshevik-Communist regime and mine is no exception.”Emphasis added:2022-02-2809 min
STUMP - Death and TaxesPresident's Day - Calvin CoolidgeTranscript: [this is an experiment using Dragon Speak and my own editing][Dies Irae chant intro]Hello and welcome to STUMP — death and taxes This is Mary Pat Campbell, also known as meep, the MP portion of STUMP. The STU part — That's the silent partner, and for today, Presidents' Day, I want to celebrate “Silent Cal” that is President Coolidge from 100 years ago. Yes, I know Presidents' Day is about Washington and Lincoln and it got squished together in one holiday. But when you name it Presidents' Day, then I'm gonn...2022-02-2112 min